News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
1. N.K. leader visits mausoleum to mark late grandfather's death anniversary
2. UN: ECOSOC High-level Segment Statement submitted by organizations in consultative status with the Economic and Social Council
3. China stresses support for North Korea after special envoys’ phone conversation
4. China stands by mutual defense treaty with North Korea after 60 years
5. North Koreas are Hungry and Thirsty
6. China’s Strategic Competition Addiction Influences Negotiations With North Korea
7. Widening the unbridgeable gap in South Korea: between anti-China sentiments and pro-China interests
8. North Korea Needs the Bomb to Protect Itself From America
9. Critics dismiss ruling party’s olive branch to North Korea
10. Biden to Temper U.S. Use of Sanctions Weapons, Officials Say
11. Brother of official killed by N. Korea calls for punishment of Coast Guard
12. N. Korea's paper reports on coronavirus situations in S. Korea
13. North Korea fails to shoot off its mouth
14. Kim Jong-un's annual mourning proves he's alive
15. Nuclear research institute hacked by North for 12 days
16. Trial balloons galore over Moon, Suga and Tokyo Olympics
17. Analysis: N.Korea reshuffle signals military policy not top priority now, analysts say
18. Armistice issues (and a peace agreement)
19. Asleep at the wheel (recent hack)
20. North Korea orders border walls and fences to be completed by October 10
21. The reason why the president of Kim Il Sung University was replaced recently
1. N.K. leader visits mausoleum to mark late grandfather's death anniversary
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 8, 2021
When north Korea finally goes away and we can have access to whatever archives they have (hopefully) I would like to know what was really going on inside Pyongyang at the time of his death through October and the conclusion of the Agreed Framework. Would like to know if Kim Il-sung gave guidance to complete the agreement (as some speculate). Was there disagreement within the upper ranks of the party? Did Kim Jong-il want to complete the agreement or not? Was he boxed in by his late father? Or did they make the agreement knowing full well that they were going to cheat on it?
2. UN: ECOSOC High-level Segment Statement submitted by organizations in consultative status with the Economic and Social Council
There are 396 statements from organizations and individuals in the 582 page report at this link.
Statement number 365 is from the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea. This is another opportunity for north Korea to repent, change its ways, and become a responsible member of the international community.
365. US Committee for Human Rights in North Korea
The US Committee for Human Rights in North Korea wishes to highlight opportunities for sustainable and resilient recovery in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea after the COVID19 pandemic, particularly relevant to the good health and well-being of North Korean women and children in line with Sustainable Development Goal 3.
The good health and well-being of North Korean women and children are critical under the COVID-19 pandemic and after. North Korean women and children are one of the most vulnerable populations. Both face a lack of healthcare and proper nutrition. Women lack adequate reproductive care and face sexual and gender-based violence as human trafficking victims and as prisoners. Their food insecurity may have been exacerbated by COVID-19-related restrictions. As such, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the international community should prioritize North Korean women and children in their efforts to conduct sustainable development and achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In particular, women and children in detention are often victims of trafficking. Prior to and during their detention, they often lack access to medical care and proper nutrition. The provision of medicine, healthcare services, food and micronutrients should focus on such vulnerable groups.
We respectfully urge both the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the People's Republic of China to accept visits by the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and representatives of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. Their visits would be opportunities to assess the impact of COVID-19 on aspects focused on human security in general, including the nutritional and health insecurity of vulnerable groups in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Such visits could serve as a precursor to conceptualizing and designing a comprehensive, sustainable, and inclusive approach to implementing the Sustainable Development Goals in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. We also urge the Democratic People's Republic of Korea to include human rights non-governmental organizations and humanitarian aid organizations in these visits, perhaps beginning with civil society organizations in United Nations consultative status. This would facilitate a more comprehensive dialogue, cognizant of both the human security needs of the people of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and a United Nations Human Rights up Front approach, with the aim of achieving the 2030 Agenda in the country.
3. China stresses support for North Korea after special envoys’ phone conversation
SCMP · by Shi Jiangtao · July 7, 2021
This should not be a surprise and I think these are expected public comments. China wants to maintain the status quo, e.g., stability. But it would be interesting to know what really transpired in the conversation. Was it cordial or contentious? What kinds of demands or offers were made, if any? But this is the stuff of diplomacy and we will not know until the histories are written some day in the future. :-)
Excerpts: “Liu largely echoed comments by Foreign Minister Wang Yi last week in which he called for the resumption of dialogue and consultation and “phased and synchronised” actions by both the US and North Korea.
He also urged Washington to address Pyongyang’s “legitimate and reasonable concerns”, in another indication of Beijing’s continued support for the North.
According to the Chinese statement, the US said it was committed to resolving the issue through diplomatic means and Washington hopes to resume dialogue and contact with North Korea as soon as possible.
US State Department spokesman Ned Price confirmed the call had taken place but declined to offer further details. Price said Washington would work with South Korea and Japan adding that China “has a role to play as well and obviously has influence with the regime”.
The Biden administration was “awaiting a constructive reply” from North Korea, Price added.
4. China stands by mutual defense treaty with North Korea after 60 years
UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · July 7, 2021
Again, closer than lips and teeth. The only ally each country has.
5. North Koreas are Hungry and Thirsty
onekoreanetwork.com · by Joseph Kim · July 7, 2021
But not for food and drink alone.
Very interesting piece from Joseph Kim. He outlines an interesting information and influence activities campaign. Note the importance of VOA.
6. China’s Strategic Competition Addiction Influences Negotiations With North Korea
The National Interest · by Xu Tianran · July 7, 2021
I concur with the author. It is at least questionable whether Beijing is willing to invest the political capital necessary to influence the north Korean situation. (but it is more likely not to). I would make no plan or policy that depends on Chinese help.
Conclusion: A"s articulated by Secretary of State Tony Blinken, Washington’s relationship with Beijing under the Biden administration will be “competitive when it should be, collaborative when it can be, and adversarial when it must be.” While it is possible that collaboration on North Korean issues could serve as a bargaining chip or a moderator in China-U.S. relations, it is questionable whether Beijing would be motivated to invest its political capital in bringing the DPRK back to the negotiating table under the current circumstances."
7. Widening the unbridgeable gap in South Korea: between anti-China sentiments and pro-China interests
onekoreanetwork.com · July 6, 2021
Conclusion: The Chinese Communist Party will further increase its operations on the united front against the Korean political and economic elite. The CCP will solidify its influence in Asia because South Korea is the number one strategic target that needs to be dominated geopolitically and geographically. And South Korea’s ruling elite is likely to further increase its pro-China drive. This is because China is already the only patron that leftist elites can lean on. But as a result, the gap between the public and the perception towards China will widen. And this will serve as one of the important factors that could affect the upcoming 2022 presidential election in South Korea.
8. North Korea Needs the Bomb to Protect Itself From America
Foreign Policy · by Doug Bandow · July 7, 2021
Well Mr. Bandow has the north Korean talking point down pat, starting right with the title.
It is all America's fault. We are the threat. And a "reflexive" embrace of alliances? Does Mr. Bandow really think we are better off without alliances?
Conclusion: “Despite Washington’s continued reflexive embrace of alliances, North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal highlights the downside of America’s security guarantee for the South. Absent unlikely denuclearization via diplomacy, continuing to protect South Korea will increasingly expose the U.S. homeland to possible nuclear attack. Nothing at stake in the peninsula warrants taking that risk.”
9. Critics dismiss ruling party’s olive branch to North Korea
koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · July 7, 2021
I usually find little on which to agree with the ruling party in Korea. I am not sure how positive President Moon's legacy will be and if there can ever really be detente with north Korea.
What I agree with is that we do have to look at effects that take place beyond the single term of a president. Presidents should be thinking long term and setting the conditions for the next and future administrations. Not everything can be accomplished by a president in one or two terms (only in only one 5 year term in the ROK) . In fact trying to accomplish everything or too much will lead to strategic failures in some areas that by necessity will be neglected while in pursuit of short term objectives.
10. Biden to Temper U.S. Use of Sanctions Weapons, Officials Say
WSJ · by Ian Talley
Someone asked me what this might mean for our sanctions on north Korea.
I have been thinking about this for some time. It seems to me that the Administration's priority is on diplomacy with Iran. I think the national security professionals in the administration think they can still deal with Iran and come to a successful resolution on its nuclear (and missile) program. Or that is their hope.
I think the administration would also like to make a deal with north Korea as well but it will be much harder.
My sense is this. It will not remove sanctions on north Korea for two main strategic reasons: One is that it will want to demonstrate its strength and resolve toward north Korea to counter the criticism it will receive (and is receiving) about lifting sanctions on Iran. It will want to be able to show it is strong and does not easily make concessions. The second strategic reason is to both influence Iran that it will to impose sanctions and is just not going to lift sanctions across the board. It is designed to send a signal to Iran. But the second part of this is that the administration wants to have success with Iran to set an example for north Korea. If Iran does shut down its nuclear and missile programs and agrees to inspections in return for sanctions relief then the US will want to try the same argument on north Korea and use the example of Iran to demonstrate US sincerity and that an acceptable deal can be made.
We also want to keep sanctions in place to try to prevent access to dual use material and to try to hinder the north’s nuclear and missile programs by denying it access to resources. Due to the amount of illicit activities being conducted by the north the administration cannot justify lifting sanctions until there is substantive progress toward a deal.
So the bottom line is I do not think sanctions will be lifted on north Korea any time soon regardless of what happens with Iran or any other situation. I think the administration will hold the line on
11. Brother of official killed by N. Korea calls for punishment of Coast Guard
en.yna.co.kr · by 유청모 · July 8, 2021
Yes, so many failures but the fact is the north Korean People's Army brutally executed him.
12. N. Korea's paper reports on coronavirus situations in S. Korea
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 8, 2021
I wonder if north Korea is preparing the information environment for the eventual release of information about an outbreak in the north when it can no longer cover it up. Or is it using the information about the South to further mobilize the people in the north to abide by all COVID mitigation measures and to justify Kim's policies that are crushing the economy and causing great suffering among the population? And of course with no COVID cases in the north (according to the regime) the Propaganda and Agitation Department is able to spin the message that the north is superior to the South.
13. North Korea fails to shoot off its mouth
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Michael Lee and Park Hyun-Ju · July 8, 2021
Actually, North Korea gave General LaCamera a "gift" by not firing a missile over the 4th of July holiday and allowed him to take command without any provocation to impact the holiday weekend. (note attempt at humor): “In the past, Pyongyang has marked U.S. Independence Day on July 4 with missile test launches and strongly worded denunciations of Washington. This year, the U.S. holiday passed without comment.
In July 2017, the North first successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile, which North Korean leader Kim Jong Un described as “a gift” to “American bastards” on their national independence day, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
14. Kim Jong-un's annual mourning proves he's alive
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · Michael Lee · July 8, 2021
Did we really need proof of life? The photo allows us to speculate about which members of the regime are in favor and which have fallen out of favor (though not enough to be exiled (yet)).
15. Nuclear research institute hacked by North for 12 days
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Michael Lee · July 8, 2021
The regime's all purpose sword is hard at work. I am always skeptical about such claims as "no technology data was leaked." And of course the "third country" from which the organizations are operating is likely China.
Excerpt: According to Ha, intelligence officials believe North Korea was behind the hacking attacks, which were conducted by organizations in a third country. However, they said that no technology data was leaked.
16. Trial balloons galore over Moon, Suga and Tokyo Olympics
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim and Jeong Jin-Woo · July 8, 2021
I am not optimistic that anything will come of this during the Olympics. But I hope I am wrong.
17. Analysis: N.Korea reshuffle signals military policy not top priority now, analysts say
Reuters · by Josh Smith
I am always taken aback by these headlines which I do not think matches the actual analysis in the article. We should not be lulled by these types of headlines. The military is, always has been, and always will be the priority for the regime. The regime cannot survive without the military. And we should look at the events of October 10th and January 14th to see how Kim has invested in his military.
Ken Gause makes the important point here: "The military dominates affairs in North Korea and there is no suggestion that will change in the long term, but the changes may signal that for the time being, Kim is unlikely to resume nuclear brinkmanship while he focuses on problems at home, Gause said."
Though I would further parse this and say the party dominates affairs and the party controls the military. I think it is a logical assessment that Kim is consumed with internal crises. However, we cannot know when he thinks it is time to resume blackmail diplomacy actions. It could be next year or next week.
And this is also important analysis: “Michael Madden, a leadership expert at 38 North, said that what looked like a demotion could often be part of a routine shuffle aimed at preventing any one official from building up too much of a power base, or an instance of reassigning a competent and trusted official to handle a particular problem in a more hands-on role.
"Demotions are very common things in North Korea politics," he said. "We need to keep in mind that things that look like demotions to us can in fact be something else."
18. Armistice issues (and a peace agreement)
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Park Tae-gyun · July 8, 2021
This is the first OpEd or any article by a Korean scholar address paragraph 60 of the Armistice and the "Korea question:" The author references Article IV so here it is:
Recommendations to the Governments Concerned on Both Sides
60. In order to insure the peaceful settlement of the Korean question, the military Commanders of both sides hereby recommend to the governments of the countries concerned on both sides that, within three (3) months after the Armistice Agreement is signed and becomes effective, a political conference of a higher level of both sides be held by representatives appointed respectively to settle through negotiation the questions of the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Korea, the peaceful settlement of the Korean question, etc.
The author makes an important argument as to the many reasons why a peace agreement is difficult ( in 1953 and now).
He concludes with this excellent analysis: "A peace agreement requires time for preparation. It needs to contain important details such as accountability and treatment of the war criminal states, reparations and territorial provisions."
19. Asleep at the wheel (recent hack)
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· July 8, 2021
Strong criticism of the government for the recent hack from north Korea. We all need to be vigilant in cyber space.
20. North Korea orders border walls and fences to be completed by October 10
dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · July 8, 2021
Another indicator of how the regime is trying to even further isolate itself and protect the north from the outside world both for COVID and information and influence purposes. If the regime can sustain effectively closing and controlling the border the markets in the north are going to wither and die.
But note this anecdote which illustrates how things are in north Korea right now: “In fact, one male member of a labor brigade in his mid-30s was arrested early last month in Kimjongsuk County (Sinpa County) for watching a music video by popular South Korean boy band BTS.
“This wouldn’t have happened if [the labor brigades] were working day and night, but since they are just hanging around three days out of five for lack of materials, he ended up buying a memory card,” said the source. “He was discovered by a coworker secretly watching the video. In the end, he was turned over to the judicial authorities.”
Later, in mid-June, the county branches of the Ministry of State Security and Ministry of Social Security, along with local prosecutors, assembled military construction units and labor brigades in Sinpa Middle School’s field for a public “ideological struggle” meeting focused on the man’s infraction. Local residents also witnessed the event because it was held in such an open place.
While criticizing the actions of the man, one judicial official quipped that he had “come to build a bangtan [bulletproof] wall, but ended up watching bangtan material from the enemy,” a play on the Korean name of BTS, Bangtan Sonyeondan, which means “Bulletproof Boy Scouts.” By mistakenly making direct reference to BTS, the official reportedly sparked laughter among locals familiar with the band.
In the end, the offender was transported back to his place of residence and handed over to local Ministry of Social Security officials, according to the source.
And of course if I were to make a snarky comment when they get done with the wall in the north perhaps they could be hired for work in Texas.
21. The reason why the president of Kim Il Sung University was replaced recently
I guess not even north Korea is immune from college admissions scandals.
dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · July 8, 2021
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“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.”
- F. Scott Fitzgerald
"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it."
- Aristotle
"I am wiser than this man, for neither of us appears to know anything great and good; but he fancies he knows something, although he knows nothing; whereas I, as I do not know anything, so I do not fancy I do. In this trifling particular, then, I appear to be wiser than he, because I do not fancy I know what I do not know."
-Socrates