News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
1. Crooks to move from Pyongyang to Seoul
2. U.S., Chinese envoys for N. Korea hold phone talks: State Dept.
3. N. Korea in 'tug of war' with U.S. over policy direction: defense ministry
4. S. Korea's intelligence agency dismisses rumors over N.K. leader's health as 'groundless'
5. North Korea faces food shortage of 860,000 tons: UN agency
6. OPCON transfer requires stronger combined defense
7. Over 600 cyber attacks against unification ministry detected last year: data
8. South Korea’s ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ Dilemma
9. Xi, Kim, China and the North
10. Why does Moon praise Kim?
11. North Korea creates new nationwide organization to monitor and crack down on food hoarding and price gouging
12. North Korean leaders planning event to officially open Pyongyang General Hospital early next year
13. North Korea facing 'harsh lean period': UN food body
14. Can China Bring North Korea to the Nuclear Negotiating Table?
15. South Korea reports highest daily COVID-19 caseload in months
16. Congressional delegation urges North for a 'sign'
17. NIS director is trying to get Pope Francis to visit Pyongyang
18. Kim Jong Un’s weight loss befuddles North Korea watchers
19. UNL professor: Marine killed in Frozen Chosin battle was starving, too
1. Crooks to move from Pyongyang to Seoul
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Esther Chung · July 7, 2021
You really have to love the title of this one. I could not resist leading with this today. Spoiler alert: they are talking about the new UK Ambassador to the ROK whose name is Colin James Crooks. He was previously the UK Ambassador to north Korea.
2. U.S., Chinese envoys for N. Korea hold phone talks: State Dept.
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · July 7, 2021
I think the administration is pursuing multiple diplomatic paths to give Kim Jong-un a chance to act as a responsible member of the international community. But despite the efforts of all the powers involved, the responsibility for the lack of diplomatic progress lies on Kim's shoulders.
3. N. Korea in 'tug of war' with U.S. over policy direction: defense ministry
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · July 7, 2021
An interesting assessment. I concur with the Minister that the regime is focused on internal unity and economic "development" (development is too strong a word - it is more likely the regime is focused on trying to rescue or resuscitate its failed economy - it is too soon to focus on development especially when there is so little to develop).
But my sense is that in terms of a "tug-of-war" with US policy, Kim is trying to create the conditions for sanctions relief in return for a promise of talks. He will continue his political warfare strategy and executing blackmail diplomacy in versions forms to include trying to exploit the humanitarian suffering and food shortages in the north to drive concessions and sanctions relief fmr the US and international community.
But here are some key statements from the ROK JCS. These should not be buried in such an article as they are newsworthy and important (at least for those concerned with ROK and alliance security). Rarely does the Korean press mention that the north conducts summer and winter training cycles. And yes "exercises and drills through diverse methods" could be interpreted as scaled down training but I think the JCS is walking the political tightrope between ensuring readiness and deterrence (which the professional military knows must be the priority) and the political guidance from ROK civilian leaders.
The JCS said no unusual military movements have been detected in North Korea recently, though it is closely watching them, particularly as the North is supposed to begin summertime military drills in July.
In order to deter such threats, the Seoul military vowed to further beef up defense capabilities by deploying such weapons as early warning radars against ballistic missiles and medium-range surface-to-air missiles as planned, and beef up security along the inter-Korean border.
"We will further strengthen the Korea-U.S. combined posture and will carry out joint exercises and drills through diverse methods," it said.
The commanders also decided to seek diverse discussion channels with neighboring countries to prevent accidental clashes and to ease tensions, as there has been a marked growth in military activities by countries in the region amid an intensifying Sino-U.S. rivalry, according to the ministry.
4. S. Korea's intelligence agency dismisses rumors over N.K. leader's health as 'groundless'
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 7, 2021
I missed the rumors of a coup or that Kim "fell unconscious."
But these rumors should always give us pause and make us reflect on the question of if we learned today that Kim Jong-un was dead or no longer in power, what actions would we take? We need to think this through with some comprehensive war gaming to examine possible courses of action then develop the contingency plans so we can hopefully seize the initiative if and when something happens.
5. North Korea faces food shortage of 860,000 tons: UN agency
The Korea Times · July 7, 2021
Some might ask, is that all?
Someone asked me if I thought the US would provide food aid. I think we will probably make contributions through the WFP or other international organizations if those organizations will provide aid to the north. I believe we would certainly help if asked. But I very much doubt the regime will ask. And most importantly, if we do provide food aid (or any aid) it must be within international standards for transparency.
The problem is while there is likely very real suffering happening in north Korea and very real food shortages, the regime will not be asking for aid to help the people. The regime is using these conditions to try to coerce or co-opt sanctions relief which is the short term goal for the regime. While it might make a show of feeding some of the population, if it receives food aid it is likely some or most of it will be diverted for regime use and whatever does make it to the people will be described as a gift from Kim Jong-un and not from the US or the international community. This is why many escapees from the north recommend against providing any humanitarian aid to the north because it does not help the people, only the regime.
6. OPCON transfer requires stronger combined defense
donga.com · July 7, 2021
OPCON transition. There is no transfer. There will be a change of command from a US general ato a ROK general and like at present the new commander will answer equally to both national command and military authorities through the Military Committee. OPCON transfer is a myth. We need a new influence campaign to really educate the politicians, the press, the pundits, and the public in both countries about what will take place in terms of the future ROK/US Combined Forces Command. It is a lack of an effective IO plan that creates friction within the alliance and huge misunderstandings within the political leadership and the public.
But this OpEd gets to a deeper issue about the chain of command on the ROK side and resurrects the past arguments about dual hatting the ROK CJCS as the ROK/US CFC commander. I personally do not think that is acceptable for a combined command and I do not think it is feasible for the ROK CJCS to wear "two hats." (despite the US military commander in Korea currently wearing "four hats." The CJCS has a completely different set of responsibilities to the ROK military and the nation and commanding combined forces in wartime will be an all consuming task and he will not be able to conduct his CJCS duties.
And note the allusion to the mythical "Pershing rule" of the US in the concluding paragraph. This reinforces my argument on why we need a strong IO plan.
7. Over 600 cyber attacks against unification ministry detected last year: data
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 7, 2021
Only 600? Perhaps the north does not think the MOU is very important or has useful information. I think attacks against the military as well as businesses and infrastructure are far greater than the attacks against the MOU.
But we still must take the regime's "all-purpose sword" seriously.
8. South Korea’s ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ Dilemma
thediplomat.com · by Tam-Sang Huynh · July 6, 2021
A complex diplomatic and national security ballet for the ROK. But in the end I believe the ROK has no choice but to support a rules-based international order and must align with like-minded democracy and free market economies.
Excerpts: “Seoul’s balancing act between Washington and Beijing is unsteady. South Korea has been considering the possibility of presenting a united front with the United States and other middle-sized powers in the Quad. In the latest South Korea-U.S. bilateral joint statement, published in May 2021, both countries agreed to “align the ROK’s New Southern Policy and the United States’ vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific’’ and committed to “maintaining an inclusive, free, and open Indo-Pacific.” This statement echoed the Indo-Pacific language addressed by defense ministers from both sides in March, though there was virtually no commitment to embrace the U.S. FOIP construct from Seoul. South Korea has appeared to avoid bilateral dialogues on the possibility of South Korea’s participation in the U.S. strategy.
South Korea’s endorsement of Indo-Pacific multilateralism is a matter of debate, especially when President Moon Jae-in, delivering a video message to China’s 2021 Boao Forum for Asia in April, called for joint efforts to strengthen multilateral cooperation in Asia. The onus to act is on Moon’s ruling party, as anti-China sentiment in South Korea is peaking, reaching 75 percent in 2020 according to the results of a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center. However, formally joining a U.S.-led coalition to challenge China in the region may destabilize bilateral relations between Seoul and Beijing. The enduring question for the Moon administration is how far it can go to develop its multilateral commitments without antagonizing China, while at the same time leveraging its middle power status in the Indo-Pacific.
9. Xi, Kim, China and the North
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Shin Kyung Jin · July 7, 2021
"Closer than lips and teeth." I am not sure of the point of this piece but it is interesting to note the press coverage of events and the parallels between the north and China. And yes I would like to know what Xi and Kim discussed but I doubt we will ever know.
10. Why does Moon praise Kim?
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Michael Green · July 7, 2021
Mike Green outlines four possible reasons: “But he concluded with this important assessment: " Yet given the abysmal human rights picture in North Korea, the North’s continued expansion of missile and other dangerous capabilities, and even the transparently deceptive words Pyongyang uses to describe its intentions — it would be better to find a way to express a pragmatic hope for peace without investing so much hope in the personality of Kim Jong-un."
11. North Korea creates new nationwide organization to monitor and crack down on food hoarding and price gouging
dailynk.com · by Lee Chae Un · July 7, 2021
Just another indicator of the dire situation within north Korea and how Kim is executing policies that are not designed to solve the problems for the Korean people but instead are focused solely on keeping himself in power.
12. North Korean leaders planning event to officially open Pyongyang General Hospital early next year
dailynk.com · July 7, 2021
Another example of regime failure. The grand opening was supposed to be last October 10th.
Here is an interesting anecdote. The regime does not think much of its only ally's medical equipment:
“Kim has fumed about delays in completing Pyongyang General Hospital in the presence of high-ranking party cadres, but nobody involved was punished. The source said no one was punished because Kim recognized that delays were inevitable given the circumstances.
Kim was furious, however, when he received reports from the Ministry of External Economic Relations in April of this year that officials tried to import Chinese, not European, medical equipment. Those involved in the import of this equipment were reportedly executed, based on the source’s account.
North Korean trade and diplomatic personnel stationed overseas are now doing all they can to send back European medical equipment.
Multiple Daily NK sources in North Korea believe, however, that given current budgetary limits and the broad deadline for the opening of the hospital, some Chinese-made medical equipment will ultimately be used in the facility.
13. North Korea facing 'harsh lean period': UN food body
So I guess this is why Kim is showing off his new lean hard body. He is one of the people now that his $12,000 wrist watch no longer fits. (note tongue in cheek)
14. Can China Bring North Korea to the Nuclear Negotiating Table?
The National Interest · by James Hoare · July 6, 2021
In my opinion. No. China will not work to solve ROK and US security issues. And yes, north Korea marches to the beat of its own drummer.
15. South Korea reports highest daily COVID-19 caseload in months
thejakartapost.com · by The Jakarta Post
16. Congressional delegation urges North for a 'sign'
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim · July 3, 2021
Lots of ideas for engagement and diplomatic relations in the region (as a wise former diplomat focusing on north Korea once said - just about everything that can be tried with Korea has been tried. There is nothing new under the sun). I doubt very much the north will accept COVID help from the US or the ROK.
And "letting Kim out of prison" (by providing concessions and sanctions relief) is not a feasible course action because it will only cause him to double down on his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy.
17. NIS director is trying to get Pope Francis to visit Pyongyang
With all due respect, this is a gimmick. What do we think a visit by the Pope will accomplish? I am open to all ideas but someone will have to explain to my simple mind how this will really influence the behavior and decision making of Kim Jong-un? Can the Pope change the nature, objective, and strategy of the Kim family regime?
And then, why is this an action for the intelligence chief?
18. Kim Jong Un’s weight loss befuddles North Korea watchers
Financial Times · by Edward White · July 3, 2021
But would it befuddle "Weight Watchers?" Maybe he went on one of their diets. (My daughter will chastise me for trying to make dad jokes).
But my crude attempt at humor aside, Dr. Terry is correct in discussing the succession plan (or lack thereof). And Soo Kim is exactly right. Kim is paranoid.
Excerpts: “Kim’s health is “the biggest wild card” in assessing stability in North Korea, said Sue Mi Terry, a former CIA analyst who briefed former US presidents George W Bush and Barack Obama on North Korea and is now a senior fellow at the think-tank Center for Strategic and International Studies. “And with him not having any kind of succession plan, it is a high impact scenario . . . the interest is extremely high.”
...
“Kim probably fears that his adversaries may seek to exploit these as opportunities to weaken his power or, worse, manoeuvre for regime change,” said Soo Kim, an analyst at the Rand Corporation think-tank and a former CIA analyst, adding that he might be worried that any adverse change in his health could signal weakness to the outside world.
...
Some analysts cautioned against misreading North Korea. “It can . . . send a false alarm to policymakers, potentially leading to decisions that are irreversible or undermine our interests,” said Rand’s Soo Kim.
Further clouding the picture of Kim’s health was a photo released by state media this week that showed a packet of cigarettes and an ashtray on the leader’s desk. The image will also have been a blow to Ri Sol Ju, Kim’s wife, who complained to South Korean envoys in 2018 that “she couldn’t get him to give up smoking”, according to Fifield.
19. UNL professor: Marine killed in Frozen Chosin battle was starving, too
Omaha.com · by Steve Liewer
Remembering the hardships and sacrifice of those who came before us.
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"So, let me state this clearly: From where I sit, I see US foreign policy-makers inadvertently committing political warfare against themselves in a gray zone of their own making."
-Anonymous
"German GO at the Global SOF Conference: "There is no such thing as hybrid war, just reasonably good campaign design."
“Why spy? For as long as rogues become leaders we shall spy. For as long as there are bullies and liars and madmen in the world, we shall spy. For as long as nations compete, and politicians deceive, and tyrants launch conquests, and consumers need resources, and the homeless look for land, and the hungry for food, and the rich for excess, your chosen profession is perfectly secure, I can assure you.”
-John le Carre in the Secret Pilgrim