News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
1. Kim Jong-un Resumes Reign of Terror
2. Credible reports of a North Korean food crisis
3. Russians leave North Korea en masse amid pandemic
4. N.K. premier inspects economic sites, indicating his exclusion from recent reshuffle
5. Experts say North could be angling for foreign food aid
6. Few signs in North Korea that the government is releasing military rice stores to the public
7. North Korea conducts large-scale inspections aimed at ending unauthorized trade
8. Arduous March: The Great North Korean Famine of the 1990s (Millions May Have Died)
9. North Korea highlights Kim’s weight loss as food shortage builds
10. Book review: ‘North Korea and the Geopolitics of Development’
11. North Korea's Human Rights Record of Shame Now Includes 'Human Trafficking'
12. US Defense Department says there has been “no change” S. Korea-US joint military drill
13. South Korea's Mysterious Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile Tested From Underwater Platform: Report
14. Trip to Tokyo for Moon possible if there is summit: Blue House
15. Torrential Monsoon Rains Hit Southern Korea
16. U.S. informed in advance of plan to use martial law troops to quell Gwangju uprising: declassified documents
1. Kim Jong-un Resumes Reign of Terror
english.chosun.com · July 5, 2021
Just a reminder: The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the most evil mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
We do have to worry about "Mr. X," someone with access and placement who may decide to act on his own. When members of the elite feel threatened and have no other option, they may feel compelled to act for their own (and their families' possible survival). It is worth reviewing Sungmin Cho's research here: Anticipating and Preparing for the Potential Assassination of Kim Jong-Un.
And of course if something happens to Kim Jong-un, when we learn about it, what contingency plans do we have in place to execute - military and security plans, diplomatic plans, information plans, and engagement plans?
2. Credible reports of a North Korean food crisis
asiatimes.com · by Bradley K. Martin · July 6, 2021
I really do fear a crisis that could be worse than the Arduous March of the famine of the 1990s. And even if the numbers are not as high there are no longer the relief mechanisms that came into existence in the late 1990s - namely the Sunshine Policy that allowed for billions of dollars to be transferred to the regime and the rise of the black and gray markets after the failure of the public distribution system. In today's situation there is no likelihood of a Sunshine Policy to bail out the regime due to the sanctions and the regime has been cracking down on all aspects of market activity : closing the Chinese border to legal and illicit/smuggling trade, attempting to stop the use of foreign currency, restricting internal movement, and trying to limit communications and access to information.
3. Russians leave North Korea en masse amid pandemic
The Korea Times · July 6, 2021
Another indicator. Either coronavirus is breaking out or the mitigation measures in place to try to prevent an outbreak are making it for even diplomatic missions to function.
Excerpts: “An official at South Korea's unification ministry said their decision to return home appears to reflect difficulties living in Pyongyang due to the coronavirus.
"We cannot confirm specifically what their reasons are. But as they have said, considering the difficult lives from the protracted antivirus measures, it appears that each country is making their own judgment on whether or not to leave their diplomats and international staff members in Pyongyang," she said.
North Korea has claimed to be coronavirus-free but has taken relatively swift and tough measures against the global pandemic. It has maintained tight border controls since early last year to ward off an outbreak.
4. N.K. premier inspects economic sites, indicating his exclusion from recent reshuffle
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 6, 2021
For those who need to update their leadership scorecard.
5. Experts say North could be angling for foreign food aid
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Michael Lee · July 5, 2021
Actually the suffering of the Korean people is the fourth "tool" in the regime's blackmail diplomacy toolbox. There is increased tension, threats, and provocations. And then there is the ability of the regime to play on the heartstrings of the international community. Now the regime does not want food aid because it cares for the people. Notice the reports of rice reserves from the military supposedly being ordered for release (and there is a report that it is not actually being released). Getting the international community to provide food aid gives the regime and the military the opportunity to replenish stocks. The regime will never allow the transparency required to ensure the food gets to those who need it. This is why many escapees argue that the international community should not provide food aid to the north. One, because some will likely be diverted; and two, the food that does make it to some people will include a Propaganda and Agitation Department effort to spin the aid as gifts from KJU and this will be used to reinforce his legitimacy.
Of course this suffering is going to be used to argue the regime needs sanctions relief which is the most important near term concessions for the regime. We must not be duped by KJU because it is his deliberate policy decisions that are the cause of the starvation and suffering. He has the resources to feed the people but instead he uses them to fund the nuclear and missile programs, and support the military and the elite.
6. Few signs in North Korea that the government is releasing military rice stores to the public
dailynk.com · by Lee Chae Un · July 6, 2021
An indication of corruption? Have military units instead already sold off their rice reserves and they have nothing left to release? Or rather than release per the order they will try to extort money from the population?
Excerpts: “In sum, it appears highly likely that the North Korean authorities have yet to properly formulate plans to “normalize” the distribution of food rations.
It is possible that the North Korean authorities could suddenly distribute the rations given the leadership’s emphasis on Kim Jong Un’s “love for the people.” However, unless the authorities are able to move forward with the distribution of rice, they may just end up shifting blame for the distribution failure to local cadres.
Many North Koreans reportedly believe that the criticism leveled at the “negligence” of government officials during the enlarged meeting of the ruling party’s politburo on June 29 – and the replacement of high-ranking cadres – are preparations for a massive purge.
7. North Korea conducts large-scale inspections aimed at ending unauthorized trade
dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · July 6, 2021
It really does appear the regime does not want the 400+ markets to really function effectively as they are trying to cut off another variation of "smuggling."
Information and free markets that function effectively are a threat to Kim Jong-un.
8. Arduous March: The Great North Korean Famine of the 1990s (Millions May Have Died)
19fortyfive.com · by Eli Fuhrman · July 5, 2021
Some very good research was done by Andrew Natsios and USAID about this famine (among many others). And Bob Gersony did some cutting edge interviews with Koreans crossing the border after the famine (read his biography by Robert Kaplan, The Good American: The Epic Life of Bob. Gersony, The U.S. Government's Greatest Humanitarian, specifically chapter 16).
As I recall the Buddhist Sharing Movement also gather data that was found very credible by the intelligence community and they had estimates of up to 3 million people dying from the effects of the famine (which is different than saying 3 million starved to death).
But as I have noted we may see an even greater crisis over the next few years that occurred during the Arduous March if Kim Jong-un does not change his policies.
Excerpt (and the operative phrase is "just yet."): “Despite its many current challenges, conditions in North Korea may not be at famine-level just yet. Still, as the Arduous March period makes abundantly clear, such conditions can emerge quickly and without notice. Events in North Korea are such that it is even more difficult than usual to monitor the situation on the ground, and given North Korea’s food insecurity problems that predate both the COVID-19 pandemic and the deadly weather events of last year, it is important that the international community be as tuned in as possible to North Korea’s food situation.
9. North Korea highlights Kim’s weight loss as food shortage builds
americanmilitarynews.com · by Jon Herskovitz - Bloomberg News · July 5, 2021
Kim's weight loss is part of the narrative. But it is ironic that the way we can measure his weight loss is by observing the looseness of the band of his $12,000 watch,
10. Book review: ‘North Korea and the Geopolitics of Development’
NK News · by Peter Ward · July 5, 2021
I think I will still have to add this book to my "to read" pile.
Conclusion: “Overall, “North Korea and the Geopolitics of Development” offers a range of valuable insights and information on North Korea’s economic history. It pulls the DPRK’s experience into a broader context and helps us better understand why it is that the country remains one of Asia’s poorest states.
Although the authors could have written more about the impact of Eastern Bloc ideas in the North, and could have examined the role of elite decision-making after 1990, they nonetheless provide a compelling and interesting new narrative rich with detail that will be of interest to people who want to better understand North Korea’s economic history.
11. North Korea's Human Rights Record of Shame Now Includes 'Human Trafficking'
19fortyfive.com · by Stephen Silver · July 6, 2021
We must include a human rights up front approach to north Korea. In addition to a moral imperative it is a national security issue. Kim Jong denies human rights and commits crimes against humanity against the Korean people in the north in order to remain in power.
12. US Defense Department says there has been “no change” S. Korea-US joint military drill
I would like to hear this from ROK MND and the Blue House.
13. South Korea's Mysterious Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile Tested From Underwater Platform: Report
thedrive.com · by Thomas Newdick · July 5, 2021
Some interesting speculation. I have not seen any other reporting on this in the English speaking Korean media. I must have missed it on YTN News but I will look for it in future broadcasts.
14. Trip to Tokyo for Moon possible if there is summit: Blue House
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim and Kang Taw-Hwa · July 6, 2021
I doubt there will be a trip then.
15. Torrential Monsoon Rains Hit Southern Korea
english.chosun.com · July 6, 2021
16. U.S. informed in advance of plan to use martial law troops to quell Gwangju uprising: declassified documents
en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · July 6, 2021
This is hardly a damning report. But it will be interesting to see how the JUSAPA and those with anti-American sentiment will spin this to try to put responsibility for Kwangju on US shoulders. I always ask how would they have proposed the US stop this? What actions could the US have taken to prevent the outcome?
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