Small Wars Journal

03/18/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Thu, 03/18/2021 - 9:46am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Full text of joint statement of 2021 S. Korea-U.S. Foreign and Defense Ministerial Meeting

2.  Strengthening the Ironclad U.S.-ROK Alliance - United States Department of State

3.  Human rights at 'forefront' of U.S. diplomacy: State Dept.

4. Washington, Seoul to Make N.Korean Nukes a Priority

5. Blinken: North Korea Continues to Commit ‘Systemic and Widespread’ Abuses

6. The shaky linchpin (the ROK in the ROK/US Alliance)

7. Moon meets top U.S. officials, vows close security cooperation

8. Biden’s way of dealing with Kim

9. U.S. calls on China to play ‘critical’ role in nuke talks

10. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Secretary of State Antony Blinken Conduct Press Conference With Their Counterparts After a U.S.-ROK Foreign and Defense Ministerial (“2+2”), Hosted by the ROK’s Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong and Minister of Defense Suh Wook

11. North Korea Says They’re Ghosting Endless Calls and Emails From Team Biden

12. North Korea Tries Familiar Gambit as US Delegation Arrives in Region

13. Kim Jong Un’s Kid Sister Warns Biden Not to Make ‘a Stink’ With South Korean Exercise Drills

14. North Korea says U.S. attempt to initiate contact is 'cheap trick' - KCNA

15. North Korea likens pop music to 'slavery' in ominous 'entertainment crackdown'

16. S. Korea, U.S. set to wrap up springtime combined exercise amid COVID-19, N.K. protest

17. Military closely following activities at N.K. missile facilities: defense ministry

18. U.S. deploys F-21 Raptors in Japan

 

1. Full text of joint statement of 2021 S. Korea-U.S. Foreign and Defense Ministerial Meeting

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 18, 2021

Good work by the ROK and US diplomats and action officers who put this together. I think it illustrates the initial contours of the Biden Korea policy (which of course Kim Jong-un is trying to sabotage or at least subvert this week).

It hits all the major points (and is good to see the statement on the importance of trilateral cooperation with Japan). A values based alliance, Global interests and responsibilities - rules based order. SMA. A nod to the Quad without mentioning the Quad. OPCON transition. Combined defense posture. If I were still a military planner and supporting strategy development I could make very good use of this statement. Our information operations professionals should be able to use this to help inform an information and influence activities campaign.

We have been having a lot of discussion lately on Twitter about the phrase denuclearization of the Korean peninsula versus denuclearization of north Korea. I have long argued that denuclearization of the peninsula is the Kim family regime code for ending the ROK/US alliance and driving troops off the peninsula and ending extended deterrence over the ROK and Japan. I stand by that assessment. Denuclearization of the Peninsula goes back to the 1992 north-South Agreement on Denuclearization. It is also used in the UNSCR 1718 (which I mistakenly tweeted it wasn't). It was used in the Panmunjom and Singapore joint statements with the north. However, the ROK prefers denuclearization of the peninsula to emphasize the tie to the 1992 denuclearization agreement which it lived up to (and the US did too by unilaterally withdrawing nuclear weapons in 1991) while the north did not and has not. That is a logical and sound argument, if in fact we all recognize what the regime is trying to do with the statement (which also supports the other north Korean demand - "an end to the US hostile policy toward the north). It is about driving a wedge in and ultimately breaking the alliance to get US troops off the peninsula. 

Now, in regards to the use of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula used in UNSCR 1718: Yes the phrase is there but the focus, the demands for compliance, and the sanctions are all on north Korea. I am sure the drafters of the resolution used similar rationales as the South Koreans and they were connecting it to the 1992 denuclearization agreement. But the fact is all nuclear (and all weapons of mass destruction - chemical, biological, and nuclear) sanctions are addressing north Korean actions and not South Korean actions. Which is why the key excerpt below is so important. It simply states the alliance policy is to compel the north to comply with UN resolutions. It is not the US demanding or the South Korea demanding, but the international community demanding that north Korea denuclearize, eliminate WMD and missile programs, end global illicit activities, proliferation, cyber attacks and human rights abuses and crimes against humanity. Therefore rather than using "denuclearize north Korea" or "denuclearize the Korean peninsula," we should be very explicit and say the north must be compelled to comply with all relevant UN resolutions.

This argument about the two phrases is useful; however, because it is helping to expose north Korea's strategy. Whenever denuclearization of the peninsula is used by the north, the counter must be that the north did not comply with the 1992 agreement (or nearly any other agreement) and that it must comply with UN resolutions. And ROK and US policy makers, diplomats, and military officials must continually acknowledge that the ROK and US have complied, the South is "denuclearized" and that the north's strategy is not about serious negotiation about the denuclearization of the north but instead it is deliberately executing its political warfare strategy with the objective of dominating e Korean peninsula. We must continually expose the regime's strategy for all the world to see. Our debate over how to phrase denuclearization can help us to that. “Thus, what is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy's strategy.” - Sun Tzu. This debate helps us to attack Kim's strategy.

Key excerpt:

“The Ministers and Secretaries emphasized that North Korean nuclear and ballistic missile issues are a priority for the Alliance, and reaffirmed a shared commitment to address and resolve these issues. They affirmed the importance of full implementation of relevant U.N. Security Council resolutions by the international community, including North Korea. The ROK and the United States are closely coordinating on all issues related to the Korean Peninsula. Both sides shared the view that these issues should be addressed through a fully-coordinated strategy toward North Korea between the ROK and the United States. To this end, they committed to maintain high-level consultations on the United States' ongoing North Korea policy review.”

This statement is also posted in Korean and English the MOFA web site but is not yet posted on State's web site.

 

2. Strengthening the Ironclad U.S.-ROK Alliance - United States Department of State

state.gov 

Good alliance overview. Good work by the professionals in State EAP. This should be useful for everyone's public diplomacy efforts. Note two sections that speak directly to the American people (and all sections indirectly do as well).

 

3. Human rights at 'forefront' of U.S. diplomacy: State Dept.

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 18, 2021

The ROK/US alliance must take a human rights upfront approach.  We should remember that the regime could not continue to develop its nuclear and missile capabilities without denying the human rights of the Korean people in the north.

 

4. Washington, Seoul to Make N.Korean Nukes a Priority

english.chosun.com · March 18, 2021

Not denuclearization of the entire peninsula.

Not denuclearization of north Korea.

It must be to compel north Korea to comply with all UN resolutions pertaining to nuclear, missile and all WMD development and use, human rights abuses, global illicit activities, cyber attacks, and proliferation. This should be the essence of the alliance strategy.

 

5. Blinken: North Korea Continues to Commit ‘Systemic and Widespread’ Abuses

The National Interest · by Ethen Kim Lieser · March 17, 2021

This is good to see the SECSTATE calling out north Korea for human rights. We need the South and the US to speak with one voice on this. The UN has determined that the Kim family regime is committing crimes against humanity.

 

6. The shaky linchpin (the ROK in the ROK/US Alliance)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Yun Byung-se

A short, but very powerful critique of the ROK.

A stark warning to the ROK here:  

“If Korea abandons its linchpin role in the Indo-Pacific fearing expected burdens, it will surely be substituted by Japan — the cornerstone — and India — a new linchpin. Korea should not turn into a “dispensable nation.” Now is the opportunity for Korea to find a way out of its diplomatic impasse.”

 

7. Moon meets top U.S. officials, vows close security cooperation

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · March 18, 2021

Oh, to have been a fly on the wall for this meeting....Did they address our mutual strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime?

 

8. Biden’s way of dealing with Kim

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Cha Se-hyeon

The author recommends H.R. McMaster's policy prescriptions:

“He claimed the policy failed because the U.S. had futile hopes that North Korea’s opening — sometimes called “Sunshine Policy” — would change the essence of the regime or the belief that Kim family’s rule was not sustainable and would collapse before the North developed and deployed nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. He also argued that the United States should exert maximum pressure until Kim decides that his regime was safer without the nuclear program than with it. He proposed three principles: not offering initial agreement or compensation to bring Pyongyang to the talk table; persuading China to enforce UN sanctions as it makes up 95 percent of North Korea’s trade; and showing the willingness and capacity to use military power against North Korea if necessary. 

I hope the democratic leaders today will reference McMaster’s advice.”

 

9. U.S. calls on China to play ‘critical’ role in nuke talks

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim

China maintains a critical role in maintaining the status quo on the peninsula and ensuring the Kim family regime does not collapse.

While we must try to work with China we cannot depend on China to solve ROK and US security issues.

And we should not forget: China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions. We have to apply this in the Korean context as well.

 

10. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Secretary of State Antony Blinken Conduct Press Conference With Their Counterparts After a U.S.-ROK Foreign and Defense Ministerial (“2+2”), Hosted by the ROK’s Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong and Minister of Defense Suh Wook

defense.gov

Some of the many key points. This is a pretty comprehensive press conference with four main speakers (the 2+2), There is a lot to work with here. If I were still a military planner I would be gathering all these remarks and statements and using them to frame strategic guidance. I think the Biden Korea policy review is very subtle (and sometimes not so subtly) laid out in all the comments and statesmen from both 2+2s in Korea and Japan):

“And also, both countries have confirmed our consensus on three major areas. First of all, the North Korea nuclear issue is the most immediate issue and it is necessary to have the close coordination between our two countries.

Secondly, in order to resolve the North Korea nuclear issue in a peaceful manner, the best diplomatic efforts will be made based on the solid security base.”

Lastly, in the process of review process of the North Korea by the U.S., as well as the implementation period, fully coordinated strategy will be the base for our coordination. Both countries will continue to have the cooperation for the sake of the progress of the Korean peace process. Also, for the regional peace, security, and prosperity, both countries have decided to continue our cooperation, reciprocal, and the futuristic manner among the three lateral countries, with Japan. Also with the New Southern Policy and its cooperation, we decided to have the common prosperity and stability, especially in the Indo-Pacific area. Regarding climate change and COVID-19, we decided to have the joint responses based on our alliance. We also decided to have that cooperation of the 2+2 meeting. It will be very meaningful.

...

On the visit of the secretaries from the U.S., there was no direct discussion about Korea joining Quad. However, we discussed how we can harmonize and coordinate the New Southern Policy of South Korea and the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the U.S. As I have stated several times, the Korean Government's position is that if it conforms with the national interest of Korea and transparency and inclusiveness is ensured, we can join any regional cooperative body.”

SECDEF gets it exactly right here (though we need a good information campaign to properly explain the OPCON transition process and its benefits for both countries):

“And today, we discussed the way forward on a host of critical strategic and operational issues. And at the top of my agenda was ensuring a shared understanding of the importance of maintaining military readiness. Our force remains ready to fight tonight and we continue to make progress toward the eventual transition of wartime operational control to an ROK-commanded future combined forces command.

While meeting all the conditions for this transition will take more time, I am confident that this process will strengthen our alliance. And so we have a lot to look forward to as, together, we address global security -- the global security challenges and engage in long-term strategic competition, mainly with China, which, as some of you know, is our department's pacing challenge in the years ahead.”

 

11. North Korea Says They’re Ghosting Endless Calls and Emails From Team Biden

The Daily Beast · by Donald Kirk · March 18, 2021

Comments from my colleague, Mathew Ha (among others), in the article.

 

12. North Korea Tries Familiar Gambit as US Delegation Arrives in Region

rfa.org · by Soyoung Kim, Jeongeun ji, Albert Hong

My comments in the article.

 

13. Kim Jong Un’s Kid Sister Warns Biden Not to Make ‘a Stink’ With South Korean Exercise Drills

The Daily Beast · by Donald Kirk · March 16, 2021

My comments in the article.

 

14. North Korea says U.S. attempt to initiate contact is 'cheap trick' - KCNA

Reuters · by Josh Smith · March 18, 2021

Cheap Trick? isn't that a rock and roll band? Maybe Choe Son-hui is listening to western music.

I wonder if she had these Cheap Trick songs on her mind when she made this statement?

"Gonna Raise Hell"

"Dream Police"

"Surrender"

"I Want You to Want me"

Listen To them here. Maybe this will give us some understanding of the thinking of the Kim Family regime: 

 

15. North Korea likens pop music to 'slavery' in ominous 'entertainment crackdown'

Mirror · by Dave Burke · March 17, 2021

Choe Son-hui is going to get in trouble if she is listening to Cheap Trick in addition to South Korean pop music.

Didn't rock and roll help bring down the Soviet Union? (tongue in cheek here)

 

16.  S. Korea, U.S. set to wrap up springtime combined exercise amid COVID-19, N.K. protest

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 18, 2021

Ah yes. Such a threat to the north! Any reporting on the end of the north Korean Winter training Cycle that must be about completed now?

 

17.  Military closely following activities at N.K. missile facilities: defense ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · March 18, 2021

As they should be and as our combined intelligence and military capabilities should be.

We should ask what is the north showing us and what does it want us to see and what does it not want us to see?

 

18.  U.S. deploys F-21 Raptors in Japan

donga.com

Bad headline but good news for military assets in the region.

 

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“Develop enough courage so that you can stand up for yourself and then stand up for somebody else.”

- Maya Angelo 

 

“Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point.”

- C.S. Lewis

 

“Righting wrongs for which we haven’t been caught is the litmus test of who we are; it shows the core of our honor.”

- Anonymous

Categories: News