Small Wars Journal

03/16/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Tue, 03/16/2021 - 10:49am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. FDD | Ahead of U.S.-ROK Meeting, Unresolved Policy Disputes Still Trouble the Alliance

2. It Will Be Hard to See Again Spring Days Three Years Ago (Kim Yo Jong's Statement about ROK/US Training)

3. Biden aides bristled when Justice official called North Korea a 'criminal syndicate,' say officials

4. Troubles ahead for the US–South Korea alliance

5. S. Korea, U.S. to hold 'two plus two' meeting on alliance, N. Korea, China issues

6. Blinken says U.S. is looking at pressure measures, diplomatic paths, in N.K. policy review

7. Enforcing Sanctions on North Korea Is an Opportunity for Cooperation at Sea

8. While North Korean Missiles Sit in Storage, Their Hackers Go Rampant

9. 1/3 of Vaccine Recipients Have Adverse Reaction (South Korea)

10. Defense minister expresses regret over N. Korea's criticism of military exercises

11. Defense ministry calls for N. Korea's 'flexible' stance, full implementation of military pact

12. With Biden envoys in Asia, Kim’s sister warns US, SK

13. U.S. Pushes for Closer Ties Between Korea and Japan

14. Strategic clarity in 2+2, 2021

15. Blinken and Austin's visit to Seoul

16. N Korea warns US not to 'cause a stink' before Seoul meeting

17. Israel, South Korea to co-operate on unmanned airborne ISTAR

18. U.S. will work on denuclearization of North Korea with allies: Blinken

19. They left behind children to find freedom. The choice haunts North Korean refugee women

 

1. FDD | Ahead of U.S.-ROK Meeting, Unresolved Policy Disputes Still Trouble the Alliance

fdd.org · by Mathew Ha Research Analyst · March 15, 2021

Excellent analysis from my colleague, Mathew Ha.

 

2. It Will Be Hard to See Again Spring Days Three Years Ago (Kim Yo Jong's Statement about ROK/US Training)

kcnawatch.org · March 15, 2021

This is the statement that has everyone spun up. There is a lot of press reporting on this as everyone is trying to read the tea leaves.

She is referring to the Panmunjom Declaration in April 2018 (Spring days three years ago)

The first most obvious point of this message is to simply drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance. That is one of the most critically important lines of effort in the regime's strategy. It must break the alliance to successfully dominate the Korean peninsula. The timing of this is perfect with th 2+2 ministerial talks about to take place in Seoul. It is also attempting to explicate the rhetoric coming out of Seoul, in particular from the Minister of Unification but others as well who are opposed to combined ROK/US training. I think this is the number one purpose of the message.

Another aspect of this message is the possibility of the continued good cop/bad cop relationship of Kim Yo-jong and her brother. Her statements (again attributed directly to her and published in her voice which is rare) can give KJU the ability to walk this back in the future if he chooses to. They have been testing this out since Kim Yo-jong-'s first public statement last March and what we saw happen in June.

In addition, this both serves to reinforce Kim Yo-jong's legitimacy as a senior member of the Kim Family regime (the importance of the lack party titles notwithstanding not bestowed during the 8th Party Congress) as well as the strength of the Paektu bloodline. This could contribute to the legitimacy of eventual succession should something happen to Kim.

This is also the continuation of a new play in the Kim family regime playbook that was first executed this past June when Kim Yo-jong made threats against the South over escapee/defector information operations, and then acted on the threat by destroying the ROK Liaison office at the Kaesong Industrial Complex. The result of this action was South Korean appeasement and the passing of the anti-leaflet amendment in December which actually contributes to the protection of the Kim family regime because of the existential threat caused by information flow to the Korean people living in the north. The intent, at a minimum is for the ROK to pressure the US to halt training (which I do not believe it will agree to) and if the US does not agree to halt training the regime hopes for some catastrophic break in the alliance such as the ROK halting participation. I think that is unlikely to happen but the regime sees evidence of ROK appeasement of the north due to the Moon administration failure to recognize and understand the true nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.

It is critically important for the alliance not to bow down to Kim Yo-jong's threats. The talks this week must result in a renewed commitment to the alliance and a recognition that this statement illustrates not only the true nature of the regime but also its growing playbook and the strategy the playbook is designed to support - namely domination of the Korean peninsula to ensure survival of the Kim family regime.

 

3. Biden aides bristled when Justice official called North Korea a 'criminal syndicate,' say officials

NBC News · by Carol E. Lee and Ken Dilanian · March 16, 2021

Three points. First, the Kim family regime is a mafia-like crime family cult that is conducting illicit activities around the world. Department or Office 39 is a global crime syndicate. 

Second, our rhetoric will not influence the Kim regime either positively or negatively. We need to realize that Kim is executing his playbook and he is not reacting to our rhetoric. Sure, the Propaganda and Agitation Department will spin our words for propaganda purposes but our rhetoric will not have any influence over Kim Jong-un decision making. Unfortunately, when the regime blames its actions on our rhetoric (a convenient excuse for doing or not doing something as it already planned) we go into a round of self criticism and blame. 

Third, the journalists have missed the point on denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. They must not have got the memo or they did not read Sung Kim's statement closely enough. He specifically said denuclearization of north Korea, as have most all administration officials.  Moon and Trump were duped at Panmunjom and Singapore into agreeing to denuclearization of the Korean peninsula which has a very specific meaning for north Korea. Although there have been no nuclear weapons in South Korea since we unilaterally removed them in 1991-1992 in the regime's calculus it is the presence of US troops that provide access to nuclear weapons and the continued deployment of US strategic assets reinforces that. Denuclearization of the Korean peninsula plays right into the regime's hands to negotiate the end of the US hostile policy by ending the alliance, removing US troops and ending extended deterrence over the ROK and Japan. It is good for the Biden Administration to correct tis error. The press needs to get on board.

Also the UN Security Council has demanded an end to the regime's nuclear program (not denuclearization of the Korean peninsula) since 2016 and the passage of UNSCR 1718. Denuclearization of north Korea is the correct statement and everyone needs to get on board and not fall for regime rhetorical traps.

Security Council Resolution 1718

Resolution 1718 was unanimously adopted by the UN Security Council on October 14, 2006, shortly after North Korea’s first nuclear test on October 9. The full text of Resolution 1718 is available here.

Resolution 1718’s Principal Provisions

Resolution 1718:

  • Demands North Korea refrain from further nuclear or missile tests.
  • Demands North Korea return to the NPT.
  • Decides North Korea shall suspend all ballistic missile activities.
  • Decides North Korea shall abandon its nuclear program in a “complete, verifiable, and irreversible” manner.
  • Decides North Korea shall abandon all WMD activities.
  • Calls upon North Korea to return to the Six-Party Talks.

Resolution 1718’s Principal Sanctions

Member states are prohibited from the “direct or indirect supply, sale, or transfer” to North Korea, of:

  • Heavy weaponry, such as tanks, armored vehicles, large caliber artillery, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships and missile systems
  • Spare parts for the above mentioned heavy weaponry
  • Materials and technologies that could contribute to North Korea’s WMD programs and ballistic missile related activities, as set out in prior Security Council documents
  • Luxury goods

Member states are also required to:

  • Freeze the funds or financial assets of entities designated by the Security Council as providing support for North Korea’s nuclear, missile, and other WMD programs

 

4. Troubles ahead for the US–South Korea alliance

lowyinstitute.org · by Khang Vu

No. The Moon administration's peace at any cost vision is dangerous to the security of the ROK and the ROK/US alliance. The problem is in the subtitle - we cannot "indulge" the Moon administration's "hopes."

But the author does point out a number of thorny points of friction (such as the Japanese abductee issues).

 

5. S. Korea, U.S. to hold 'two plus two' meeting on alliance, N. Korea, China issues

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 16, 2021

Excerpts:

“The meeting comes as the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden seeks to leverage what it calls America's "greatest strategic asset" -- alliances with South Korea, Japan and others -- to uphold a "free and open" Indo-Pacific region being challenged by a rising China.

The high-profile gathering was instituted in 2010 to stress the robustness of the alliance after the North's deadly torpedo attack on the South's corvette Cheonan. Though it started as a regular dialogue platform, it has not been held since the last and fourth session in Washington in October 2016.”

 

6. Blinken says U.S. is looking at pressure measures, diplomatic paths, in N.K. policy review

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 16, 2021

Key points:

"We're looking at whether various additional pressure measures could be effective, whether there are diplomatic paths that make sense, all of that is under review," Blinken said at the press conference following the so-called two plus two meeting with the Japanese ministers.

"Going forward we have a shared determination to deal with the challenge posed by North Korea, particularly when it comes to its nuclear missile programs, as well of course as its abuse of human rights," he added.

 

7. Enforcing Sanctions on North Korea Is an Opportunity for Cooperation at Sea

warontherocks.com · by Artem Sherbinin · March 16, 2021

Excellent essay from a LTG. He provides information about coalition coordination we do not often see.

Conclusions:

“The coalition generates strategic outcomes for the United States beyond the scope of stopping petroleum imports to North Korea. Cooperation at sea improves the United States’ ability to surveil China’s near seas, increases interoperability between the U.S. Navy and partner states’ militaries, eases the operational burden on the U.S. Seventh Fleet, offers an avenue for cooperation with China, and improves the strategic and military relationship between South Korea and Japan. So why has the United States not taken the steps outlined above since the cell was established in 2018?

Chinese uncooperativeness and mistrust of the U.S. alliance system — as well as the Donald Trump administration’s erratic policy shifts regarding China and North Korea and transactional and bilateral approach to international affairs — impeded maritime collaboration in East Asia over the past four years. As a result, American security cooperation initiatives throughout the region have been limited to foreign military sales and financing, and a series of disparate bilateral naval and military exercises. Similarly, naval cooperation with China dwindled after its navy was uninvited from the region’s largest multinational naval exercise, Rim of the Pacific, in 2018.

Biden has stated that he willing to “work with China” and that he will place alliances and multinational cooperation at the forefront of his foreign policy. Such an approach creates the opportunity to bring new life to fledgling organizations such as the Enforcement Coordination Cell. But, in order to leverage the enforcement group to achieve greater strategic ends, the Biden administration and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command will first need to align primary and secondary political objectives with existing and potential member states, demonstrate the benefits of cooperation to China, and resolve naval interoperability challenges that have plagued East Asia for decades.”

 

8. While North Korean Missiles Sit in Storage, Their Hackers Go Rampant

Foreign Policy · by Morten Soendergaard Larsen · March 15, 2021

The all-purpose sword is critically important to the survival of the Kim family regime. Unlike the treasured sword of nuclear weapons, it has immediate, practical application and can be employed with little fear of a significant response (yet!)

 

9. 1/3 of Vaccine Recipients Have Adverse Reaction (South Korea)

english.chosun.com · March 16, 2021

And there are many cases in Europe as well. It is interesting the US FDA has not approved the AstraZeneca vaccine.

 

10.  Defense minister expresses regret over N. Korea's criticism of military exercises

en.yna.co.kr · by 유지호 · March 16, 2021

Kim Yo-jong's statement may also be in response to Minister Suh's misguided and ill-timed statement that ROK/US combined exercises should be negotiated with the north. The regime probably believes Kim Yo-jong's statement helps establish the conditions for such negotiations.

Note the comment on the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement. We should note that the north has not implemented the terms of the agreement to any significant extent except for changes to procedures in the JSA and the removal of a handful of guard posts.

 

11. Defense ministry calls for N. Korea's 'flexible' stance, full implementation of military pact

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 16, 2021

For nearly three years we have been testing the CMA and the idea we can cancel, postpone, and/or scale back exercises and that it will engender a positive response from north Korea. Kim Jong-un has proven that is not the case.

 

12. With Biden envoys in Asia, Kim’s sister warns US, SK

asiatimes.com · by Sunghee Hwang · March 16, 2021

This rhetoric conforms with the historical patterns of north Korean propaganda. 

 

13. U.S. Pushes for Closer Ties Between Korea and Japan

english.chosun.com · March 16, 2021

Trilateral cooperation will be a key element of the Biden Administration policy. And none of the three countries can be successful toward north Korea and China without strong and effective trilateral cooperation. And a trilateral alliance would be even better but I know that is a pipe dream for the next 3 or 10 generation)

 

14. Strategic clarity in 2+2, 2021

The Korea Times  · by Ahn Ho-young  · March 16, 2021

From our good friend Ambassador Ahn. He makes an important recommendation that I think we should consider.

 

15.  Blinken and Austin's visit to Seoul

The Korea Times · by Lee Seong-hyon · March 16, 2021

Very interesting analysis.

Excerpts:

“So, Alaska is the destination. Tokyo and Seoul are stopovers.

The Alaska meeting will not be successful, but it is important. It will be an occasion for both sides to exchange their respective bottom lines, to define what will be perceived as "violations" that will provoke strong reactions, including kinetic ones. The U.S. is concerned that an overconfident China may become more adventurous with its military actions, miscalculating Washington's will to react. Beijing will also reiterate its so-called "core interests." The meeting, after all, is to manage conflict between the two competing powers so that things don't get out of control.

Finally, there is one thing that both Blinken and Austin must demonstrate during this trip. They should emit calm confidence and mature leadership that can gain back the trust of their Asian allies that have been bullied by China and were belittled by Trump. Restoring their trust must come first. And there is the old maxim by John F. Kennedy: Ask not what your ally can do for you ― ask what you can do for your ally. It's a reminder for both Seoul and Washington.”

 

16.  N Korea warns US not to 'cause a stink' before Seoul meeting

AP · by Kim Tong-Hyung · March 16, 2021

We should not be distracted by the colorful rhetoric. This is a serious statement designed to drive a wedge in the ROK//US alliance.

 

17. Israel, South Korea to co-operate on unmanned airborne ISTAR

janes.com  ·  by Gareth Jennings · March 15, 2021

 

18. U.S. will work on denuclearization of North Korea with allies: Blinken

Reuters · by Reuters Staff · March 16, 2021

The press must pay attention to the SECSTATE words. We must purge the words denuclearization of the Korean peninsula from the reporting. It is denuclearization of north Korea.

 

19. They left behind children to find freedom. The choice haunts North Korean refugee women

Los Angeles Times · by Victoria Kim · March 16, 2021

Such tragic stories. But all blame for this rests on the shoulders of the Kim family regime and the system and situation and conditions it has created in north Korea. It is a human tragedy on a scale we find difficult to comprehend. And China is complicit in north Korean human rights abuses.

 

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