Small Wars Journal

03/08/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Mon, 03/08/2021 - 12:03pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. U.S., South Korean Negotiators Reach a Cost-Sharing Accord on Troops

2. Cost-sharing deal finally clinched, amount not disclosed

3. Seoul still faces complications despite defense cost-sharing deal

4. The Case for North Korea Sanctions

5. Pentagon Nominee Hints at Downsizing U.S. Forces Korea

6. S. Korea calls on N.K. to take 'wise, flexible' approach toward military exercise with U.S.

7. S.Korea, U.S. Stage Scaled-Down Military Exercise

8. It’s time to get serious about a pressure strategy to contain North Korea

9. North Korea’s New Byungjin: Nuclear Development and Economic Retrenchment

10. Why the U.S.-South Korea Nuclear Partnership Matters

11. North Korea's Kim Jong-un a Trillionaire? His Nation Is Loaded in Resources

12. Hyesan lockdown downgraded following strong complaints from locals

13. R.O.K.-U.S. joint military drills skip field training exercises for three years

14. The US and South Korea must stop threatening Kim Jong Un with war drills

15. Chinese Police Arrest North Korean Trade Workers for Illegal Gambling

 

1. U.S., South Korean Negotiators Reach a Cost-Sharing Accord on Troops

WSJ · by Michael R. Gordon Andrew Jeong  

Cost sharing not burden sharing. (title is right subtitle is inaccurate) It is not a burden on either country, It is in the interests of both countries to properly share costs for mutual defense.

Three key points. 

The ROK national assembly must approve the agreement so it is not a done deal and we should not expect a "rubber stamp" from the legislature.

There needs to be some transparency on the agreement rather quickly. Yes both sides have to go through their internal reviews before the agreement is initialed and made public but the details need to be transparent or else antibodies will build up in South Korea.

ROK and US diplomats need to be designing and executing an effective IO program to inform and educate the press, pundits, politicos, and publics and explain to both publics why this agreement is good for them.

 

2. Cost-sharing deal finally clinched, amount not disclosed

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim  

The longer the numbers are not revealed the more resistance to the agreement will build up in the national assembly and the Korean public.

Cost-sharing deal finally clinched, amount not disclosed

 

 

3. Seoul still faces complications despite defense cost-sharing deal

The Korea Times · March 8, 2021

Yes there are so many more issues that must be continually worked.

Here is a list (not all inclusive) of issues that need to be addressed:

·     Operational Control (OPCON) Transition : The conditions must be met to ensure the security of the ROK.

·     Combined Exercises and Training: These are critical to maintain military readiness as well as supporting the OPCON transition process and they cannot be negotiated  away with the north.

·     U.S. Forces Korea access to training areas : This is a critical problem for maintaining readiness of U.S. forces.

·     U.S.- China Competition and the impact the ROK/U.S. Alliance. This will continue to be a source of alliance friction.

·     Pandemic response : This impacts not only the entire populations of both nations, but also the economies, and military readiness.

·     ROK-Japan historical enmity . Trilateral cooperation is necessary for the security of all three countries.

·     ROK/U.S. Trade Issues : Although China is the ROK’s largest trading partner, economic relations between the ROK and U.S. are a key component of the alliance.

 

4. The Case for North Korea Sanctions

The National Interest · by Robert E. Kelly · March 7, 2021

I am heartened to read this from Professor Kelly. All policy makers need to read and heed this analysis.

This is a key point (one of many): "The immiseration claim is only true in the general sense that sanctions restrict inputs into the North Korean economy, crippling North Korean growth and in turn reducing per capita income. This misses the much more important context of terrible North Korean political-economic decisions going back decades. The North Korean state, specifically the leadership around supreme leader Kim Jong-un, is far more responsible for domestic suffering. If Kim made different decisions—most obviously, spending less on weapons and more on human development—the lives of North Koreans would be vastly different. Also, there are humanitarian carve-outs from sanctions which the regime chooses not to utilize."

 

5. Pentagon Nominee Hints at Downsizing U.S. Forces Korea

english.chosun.com · March 8, 2021

I am not surprised there are Koreans who would pick up on Colin Kahl's remark. But I think they are reading too much into this. As President Biden wrote he is not going to extort the alliance with threats of troop reductions. Dr. Kahl's focus (like POTUS) is on a values based alliance.

That said, he does not want to be focused on a specific number for troop levels. It is all about capabilities and commitment and not just maintaining a specific number of troops (though that is by far the only metric anyone uses to judge commitment). The global force posture review may reveal some necessary adjustments. The review has to take into account all US interests and prioritize them appropriately. There could be adjustments to US force levels but any adjustment will be made based on an objective and thorough assessment of how it best supports US and ROK/US alliance strategic interests. Recall the recent words of other US officials that note the near term priority of the north Korean threat.

 

6. S. Korea calls on N.K. to take 'wise, flexible' approach toward military exercise with U.S.

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 8, 2021

I think it would be wise if the Unification Ministry did not comment on such things as exercises.  

 

7. S.Korea, U.S. Stage Scaled-Down Military Exercise

english.chosun.com

Scaled down? Maybe that is the message they want to give to the South Korean public. I am pretty sure given the level of north Korean espionage in the South, the regime knows just how "big" the training is. From reports from participants I am not at all worried about any scaling back. As I expected, the exercise planners have designed a robust exercise that will provide critical training to the commanders and staff of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command and its component HQ. 

We should not minimize the importance of the Combined Command Post training and how important it is to maintaining the readiness of the headquarters as well as supporting OPCON transition.

 

8. It’s time to get serious about a pressure strategy to contain North Korea

atlanticcouncil.org Issue Brief by Andrea R. Mihailescu· March 4, 2021

The 12 page report can be downloaded here.

Key point: "Containment of the Kim regime and its military developments will likely outlast any present-day US presidential administration, but American leadership is necessary in the global effort to isolate and put pressure on the nuclear ambitions of Kim Jong-Un."

 

9. North Korea’s New Byungjin: Nuclear Development and Economic Retrenchment

en.asaninst.org · by Go Myong-Hyun

From our good friend Dr. Go Myong-hyun.

Excerpts:

“The combination of economic retrenchment and growing nuclear capability raises the prospect of a more intransigent North Korea when it comes to denuclearization. Economic retrenchment should not be interpreted as an indicator of regime’s desperation, but as an active response by the regime to stabilize the economy. Economic measures are meant to reassure the public that is suffering from economic hardship, but the regime will intensify internal control through propaganda and cult of personality at the same time.

A retrenched economy also implies less dependence on foreign trade, which in turn diminishes the impact of sanctions. Kim Jong Un will dig heels in and demand the United States to negotiate over North Korea’s nuclear state status rather than denuclearization. Kim does not seem to be keen on embarking on nuclear adventurism as witnessed in the 2016-17 period, at least for now. But with the predictable failure of the new five plan looming over the horizon, Kim will soon resort to the only credible leverage that his regime still possesses. The advances that North Korea has achieved on nuclear and missile fronts means that this time the North will not relent until the United States is ready to accept it as a de facto nuclear state.”

 

10.  Why the U.S.-South Korea Nuclear Partnership Matters

The National Interest · by Stephen Greene · March 7, 2021

But President Moon seeks to phase out nuclear power in South Korea.

Excerpt: "Although the domestic nuclear industry in each country faces different challenges—an aging fleet and competition against cheap natural gas in the United States, and social and political opposition in much of South Korea—a renewed emphasis on fighting climate change in both countries may lead each to recognize the value of nuclear power in that effort. This recognition should, in turn, provide the opportunity for bilateral cooperation to strengthen domestic civil nuclear industries in the United States and South Korea, while bolstering what both countries can do together as they support the growth of nuclear power internationally."

 

11. North Korea's Kim Jong-un a Trillionaire? His Nation Is Loaded in Resources

dailynk.com  ·  by Mun Dong Hui · March 8, 2021

Again the first report I read on the natural resource deposits was the 1989 UN report on the Tumen River Area Development Program.

Excerpts:

“According to the United States Geological Survey, “the rare earths are a relatively abundant group of 17 elements composed of scandium, yttrium, and the lanthanides. The elements range in crustal abundance from cerium, the 25th most abundant element of the 78 common elements in the Earth’s crust at 60 parts per million, to thulium and lutetium, the least abundant rare-earth elements at about 0.5 part per million.”

It adds: “The elemental forms of rare earths are iron gray to silvery lustrous metals that are typically soft, malleable, and ductile and usually reactive, especially at elevated temperatures or when finely divided.”

The uses of rare-earth minerals can vary greatly from magnets and speakers to camera lenses and MRI machines.

North Korea could also be rich with gold deposits as well. Recent data from Statistics Korea has revealed that gold deposits in the country are estimated to be about two thousand tons, which is more than forty times the amount present in South Korea. “

 

12. Hyesan lockdown downgraded following strong complaints from locals

dailynk.com  · Mun Dong Hui · March 8, 2021

An indicator of resistance potential and the recognition of such potential by the regime?

The authorities moved to downgrade the lockdown when they realized the widespread anger could lead to unrest in the city, based on the source’s account.

The downgrading of the lockdown order only applies to activities occurring within Hyesan city limits; locals are still not allowed to travel to areas outside of the city.

“People are still prohibited from going out of the city, and outsiders are not allowed in,” the source said,

 

13. R.O.K.-U.S. joint military drills skip field training exercises for three years

donga.com · March 8, 2021

Combined Command Post training and Field training are apples and oranges. There is a lack of understanding of multi-echelon training and how to maintain readiness. 

Yes, aggressive and robust field training is necessary year around to sustain tactical readiness. But field training exercises does not need to be conducted in conjunction with combined command post training events.  And the OPCON transition process will be in no way hindered by not conducting field training in conjunction with combined command post training.

 

14.  The US and South Korea must stop threatening Kim Jong Un with war drills

NK News · Cheehyung Harrison Kim · March 7, 2021  

This is behind the pay wall so it is not useful like most articles behind a paywall. I did get a chance to read the entire essay and I have to say it is based on dangerous analysis and thinking and a lock of understanding of military operations, readiness, and deterrence. The author tries to ameliorate some of the extreme ideas with some mention of the importance of military training but he just does not grasp how critically important is training at all levels.

If we terminate combined training then we will have to consider ending the alliance and withdrawing all US troops from the peninsula. This is exactly what Kim Jong-un wants and is the reason for north Korea propaganda that criticizes combined training and exercises.

 

15. Chinese Police Arrest North Korean Trade Workers for Illegal Gambling

rfa.org by Jieun Kim

You do what you must to survive.

Excerpts:

“It’s been a shock to people here in Dandong that the North Korean trade officials were playing mahjong for 100 to 200 yuan per game all day long. Even Chinese people who love gambling are hesitant to use three to five thousand yuan in a single day,” said the second source.

The second source added that many traders appear to owe a lot of money from losses.

“People are curious as to what punishment the authorities in Pyongyang will impose on the arrested trade workers. If the gambling was with the intention to earn foreign currency due to the lack of work, this will end with light punishment.

But if it is because the trade workers simply became habitual gamblers, it will be difficult for them to avoid heavy punishment when they are summoned to North Korea,” the source said.

 

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“If we are to have another contest in the near future of our national existence, I predict that the dividing line will not be Mason and Dixon's but between patriotism and intelligence on the one side, and superstition, ambition and ignorance on the other.”

- Ulysses S. Grant

 

“A political society does not live to conduct foreign policy; it would be more correct to say that it conducts foreign policy in order to live.”

- George F. Kennan

 

"A man who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety, is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself."

- John Stuart Mill

Categories: News