Small Wars Journal

Ukraine: WAR BULLETIN January 3, 6.00 pm EST The threehundred and fourteenth day of the russian large-scale invasion.

Wed, 01/04/2023 - 1:02pm

Embassy of Ukraine in the USA

 

WAR BULLETIN

January 3, 6.00 pm EST

 

Russia does not give up its plans to enter the administrative border of Donetsk region. The main efforts are focused on maintaining offensive potential and replenishing losses.

In order to exert pressure on the population of Ukraine, Russia carries out air and missile strikes, as well as carries out artillery shelling of critical infrastructure and population centers across the country.

During this day, Russian forces carried out 8 airstrikes and launched 18 attacks from MLRS systems.

We must disrupt the Russian scenario, the terrorists must lose - address by the President of Ukraine

WAR ROOM

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The total combat losses of the Russian forces from 24.02.2022 to 03.01.2023:

personnel ‒ about 108190 (+750) killed,

tanks ‒ 3036 (+5),

APV ‒ 6100 (+7),

artillery systems – 2033 (+6),

MLRS – 424 (+1),

Anti-aircraft warfare systems ‒ 214 (+1),

aircraft – 283,

helicopters – 270 (+1),

UAV operational-tactical level – 1839 (+3),

cruise missiles ‒ 723,

warships / boats ‒ 16,

vehicles and fuel tankers – 4735 (+10),

special equipment ‒ 181.

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FENtHr3cyr9tDLPVnoTQer6Nbkrh4ZQraND79k42AWGBGqahxxh2CUo8dfnrfJF5l

 

The three hundred and fourteenth day of the russian large-scale invasion.

The russian occupiers continue to wage full-scale armed aggression against our state. The enemy does not give up its plans to enter the administrative border of Donetsk region. The main efforts are focused on maintaining offensive potential and replenishing losses.

In order to exert pressure on the population of our country, the enemy carries out air and missile strikes, as well as carries out artillery shelling of critical infrastructure and population centers on the territory of Ukraine, violating the norms of international humanitarian law, laws and customs of warfare.

During this day, the enemy carried out 8 airstrikes and launched 18 attacks from MLRS systems.

The threat of enemy air and missile strikes on critical infrastructure remains throughout Ukraine.

The enemy, trying to take full control of the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, is concentrating its efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Bakhmut direction. The russian occupiers are trying to improve the tactical position in the Lyman and Avdiivka directions, they are strengthening the groups in the Novopavlivka direction at the expense of units transferred from the Kherson direction.

The situation remains unchanged in the Volyn, Polisiya, Siverskyi and Slobozhanskyi areas. The russian occupiers maintain a military presence in the border regions of the republic of belarus and the russian federation. There were no signs of the formation of enemy offensive groups.

The enemy fired from the entire range of artillery in the areas of the settlements of Strelecha, Krasne, Zelene, Ternova, Staritsa, Ohirtseve, Vovchansk, Karaichne, Okhrimivka, Ambarne of the Kharkiv region.

In other directions, the enemy defends previously occupied lines, concentrates efforts on restraining the actions of units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, and fires at the positions of our troops and civilian objects along the contact line.

On the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, the areas of 14 settlements were shelled by mortars, barrel artillery and MLRS, in particular: Novomlynsk, Tavilzhanka, Dvorichna, Kupyansk, Kotlyarivka, Tabaivka, Pershotravneve of the Kharkiv region and Makiivka, Ploshanka, Dibrova of the Luhansk region.

In the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions, the enemy fired at the positions of our troops from tanks and artillery of various types in the areas of more than 20 settlements, in particular: Spirne, Bilogorivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Vodyane, and Maryinka of the Donetsk region.

In the direction of Novopavlivka, the enemy fired from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery in the areas of Vremivka, Velyka Novosilka, Neskuchne, Vugledar, Mykilske settlements of the Donetsk region.

In the Zaporizhia and Kherson directions, the enemy shelled the positions of our troops with tanks and the entire range of artillery in the areas of more than 25 settlements, and also continues to shell the civilian infrastructure of cities and towns along the right bank of the Dnipro River. The civilian infrastructure of the settlements: Kherson, Molodizhne, Antonivka and Beryslav of the Kherson region was damaged by artillery shelling.

During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces of Ukraine carried out 4 strikes on areas where the enemy's personnel, weapons and military equipment were concentrated.

During the current day, units of missile troops and artillery of the Defense Forces of Ukraine carried out fire damage to 2 control points and 4 areas of concentration of manpower and military equipment of the russian occupiers.

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02NTR6eG4hhZS24wEqopQGSHw1bnYgMJro3pnTRzxiCrjsgQWPaR4yuusLQzmJ83YEl

 

Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine

russia Does Not Plan to End War against Ukraine

The terrorist country will try to conduct new attacks on the front. This was stated by Andrii Cherniak, a representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, in a comment for RBK-Ukraine.

“According to Ukraine’s military intelligence estimates, the russians will try to continue conducting offensive operations next year. They have not managed to achieve their goal on any of the fronts. They understand that they are losing, but they do not plan to end the war. We are considering the possibility that they can attack from the north or east at the same time,” the representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine said.

Cherniak also expressed a belief that the Russians will try to hold the land corridor to Crimea and seize the whole of Donetsk region. At the same time, he believes that the invaders will not be able to cross the Dnipro River to recapture the city of Kherson.

“According to assessments of Ukraine’s military intelligence, over the next four–five months, the russian army may lose up to 70,000 more servicemen. And the leadership of the occupying country is ready for such losses,” Andrii Cherniak summarized.

https://gur.gov.ua/en/content/rosiia-ne-planuie-zavershuvaty-viinu-proty-ukrainy.html

 

russia Began to Change Tactics of Attacks against Ukraine

This was stated by Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, on the air of the nationwide telethon.

"We see the impact of economic sanctions on the russian federation. They are trying to circumvent sanctions and import components, but it's not so easy to do. First of all, we collect such information and share it with our partners. [...] In addition, other measures are being taken to prevent the production of any weapons in the territory of the russian federation from increasing. Today's russian deficit is related to 'Iskander' ballistic missiles, the stocks of 'Kalibrs' are depleting, and the number of Kh-101, Kh-555 air-based cruise missiles is decreasing. The most that russia is capable of is two or three such powerful strikes, as we have seen recently," Skibitskyi said, clarifying that the issue concerns high-precision weapons.

At the same time, he noted that the production of missiles in russia does not stop. "Unfortunately, production does not stop. Their volume is not that big, but they are produced. We now find debris from missiles made in the fourth quarter of 2022. Therefore, they are produced and immediately given to the troops for the shelling of our facilities," Skibitskyi said.

He noted that the enemy began to combine and change tactics, using in various configurations both Iranian-made UAVs, old-type missiles, high-precision ballistic missiles and modified S-300 missiles.

Skibitskyi also stated that the enemy began to face a shortage of MLRSs. "If we talk about land, then it is, first of all, the 'Smerch', 'Urahan' and even 122-mm, 152-mm artillery shells. The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine constantly records russia's measures to replenish these ammunitions from other countries. They brought a large amount from belarus and are very actively working with other countries to find stocks," Skibitskyi said.

He added that the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine is also working to obtain information from russia in order to timely expose the plans of the enemy, to warn the state and its military leadership, so that Ukraine's response could be adequate.

https://gur.gov.ua/en/content/rosiia-pochala-zminiuvaty-taktyku-obstriliv-ukrainy.html

 

 

POLICY

President of Ukraine

We must disrupt the Russian scenario, the terrorists must lose - address by the President of Ukraine

I wish you health, dear Ukrainians!

I have just finished a conversation with the Prime Minister of Canada, and this is the fourth international conversation today. The Prime Minister of the Netherlands, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, the Prime Minister of Norway. And now Justin Trudeau.

We started this year with what Ukraine needs most right now - on the eve of new mobilization processes being prepared by the terrorist state. Now is the moment when together with our partners we must strengthen our defense.

We have no doubt that the current masters of Russia will throw everything they have left and everyone they can muster to try to turn the tide of the war and at least postpone their defeat.

We have to disrupt this Russian scenario. We are preparing for this. The terrorists must lose. Any attempt at their new offensive must fail. This will be the final defeat of the terrorist state. I thank all partners who understand this.

Russia mobilizes those whom it wants to throw to death, we mobilize the civilized world. For the sake of life.

I am grateful to Canada for its unwavering defense, sanction and financial support. Today we discussed with Prime Minister Trudeau how we can further increase pressure on Russia. I feel that Canadian assistance to our defense will remain strong this year.

I thank Norway for the very powerful decisions that have already been taken and that are still being prepared. This applies to armed support as well - Norway's role can become truly historic in the defense of Europe if we implement everything we are talking about now. This also applies to the support of our energy system. In particular, I thank Norway for its readiness to help provide Ukraine with the necessary volume of gas for this winter.

I am grateful to the UK for the fully concrete agreements reached, first of all in the defense sphere. Today, in the conversation with Prime Minister Sunak, I felt that we equally perceive the importance of this year, the prospects of this year. The fact that it is possible to achieve a pivotal advantage right now, not allowing Russia to win back on this or that front direction.

I am grateful to the Netherlands for sharing with us the same understanding of justice, of how this war should end. Today I have informed Mr. Prime Minister Rutte on the nearest intentions of the enemy, on what Russia is preparing for the winter months and the beginning of spring. I am confident that Ukraine will be heard in Europe.

And every day I will continue such diplomatic activity - both formal and informal, both public and non-public.

This morning, I held a regular meeting of the Staff. A long one. There were reports from the Commander-in-Chief on the operational situation at the front, the head of intelligence - on what to expect from the enemy in the coming weeks and months. We determine the needs of Ukraine, our defense, our energy sector in great detail. And we are working to meet each of the needs, in particular with partners.

And one more thing.

Yesterday Russian terrorists destroyed the ice arena in Druzhkivka, Donetsk region. With a missile.

This ice arena - "Altair" - started working before the war, when Donbas had a normal life before Russia came. Children trained there. There was a children's sports school. Hockey competitions were held there. People played sports there, celebrated and just enjoyed life. Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, Kostyantynivka, Bakhmut, Pokrovsk, Donetsk, Toretsk and other cities and villages of Donbas - everyone knew what kind of arena it was, and many people visited it. Last year it was used to collect and distribute humanitarian aid.

The Russian missile against Altair in Druzhkivka is another confession of the terrorist state. It is a confession of what it came to Donbas with and what we will definitely oust from there. Death will not prevail in Donbas, and we must do everything to throw out its tricolor from Donbas and other lands of Ukraine.

I thank everyone who fights and works for our victory!

I thank everyone who helps protect life!

Glory to Ukraine!

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/mayemo-zirvati-rosijskij-scenarij-teroristi-povinni-prograti-80217

 

Prime Minister of Ukraine

 In the near future, we expect to start the restoration at the expense of funds seized from russian banks: Denys Shmyhal

The state budget for the current year provides UAH 35.5 billion for the Fund for the Elimination of the Consequences of Armed Aggression. This envisages the construction and repair of public buildings, critical infrastructure facilities, provision of housing for IDPs. This was stressed by Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal at a Government session on January 3.

“Also, in the near future, we expect to start the restoration at the expense of funds seized from russian banks - there is already a sum worth UAH 17 billion on the special account for this purpose. The primary concern is the destroyed housing of citizens,” highlighted Denys Shmyhal.

 

According to the Prime Minister, attraction of foreign investments into the Ukrainian economy will be a part of the major reconstruction. Therefore, this year Ukraine must complete the negotiations on the insurance of military risks for foreign investors.

“Inside the country, the priority is to create the most favorable conditions for investment. In particular, simplification of preparation and implementation of public-private partnership projects. As well as minimization of requirements for investment projects with significant investments and further simplification of permitting and licensing conditions,” noted Denys Shmyhal.

In 2023, according to the PM, the Government will continue the most effective programs to help the private sector. These are soft loans at 5-7-9%, grants under the eRobota (eWork – ed.) project, state support for Ukrainian processing industry and domestic producers in general. A program of affordable mortgage lending, eOselia (eHousing – ed.), will be activated to stimulate the construction sector.

Besides, the CMU is working with partners to attract USD 38 billion to finance the budget deficit this year. These are primarily funds from the EU, the USA, and the IMF.

“Macro-financial stability is the foundation of our economic recovery. We have a clear plan to fully finance all critical expenditures just like last year,” summed up the Prime Minister.

https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/denys-shmyhal-uzhe-naiblyzhchym-chasom-rozrakhovuiemo-pochaty-vidnovlennia-ukrainy-za-rakhunok-koshtiv-konfiskovanykh-u-rosiiskykh-bankiv

 

The year of 2023 will be the year of continuation of reforms of decentralization, state property management and public administration, says Prime Minister

The decentralization reform is to prolong in 2023. It is about introducing the prefects institution – officials who will carry out administrative supervision on the ground, told the Prime Minister during the Gov’t session.

“Prefects are non-political persons who will represent the state and monitor the constitutionality of local decisions. Our model is based on the best European practice that has proven its effectiveness. After the end of martial law, it will be a good time to amend the Constitution, thereby allowing us to finalize the decentralization reform. As a result, we will get a balanced, efficient and European-like system of governance with capable hromadas,” emphasized the Prime Minister.

Besides, a reform of state property management will continue. According to the Head of Government, the country will keep the course on privatization. At the same time, the State will be an active player in some sectors primarily due to the sensitivity of these sectors to national security issues.

“In 2023, we will move towards establishment of unified state-owned companies in the field of three strategic resources: land, water, and forests. Instead of dispersion, which breeds corruption, unification and strict control over the actions of managers. State property should bring profit to Ukraine to ensure its sustainability today and its development tomorrow,” underlined Denys Shmyhal.

Prime Minister added that the reform of public administration would prolong as well. There should be fewer officials. Ministries should be engaged in development of policies and rules, instead of into management of the real sector, the Head of Government emphasized.

https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/denys-shmyhal-u-2023-rotsi-prodovzhytsia-reforma-detsentralizatsii-derzhavnoho-upravlinnia-ta-upravlinnia-derzhvlasnistiu

 

This year, we will allocate half of the budget to provide everything our Armed Forces need: Denys Shmyhal

The topmost priority on the agenda of the Government in 2023 is the support of the army, maintaining defense and security, announced Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal at a session of the Government on January 3.

 

“This year, we will allocate half of the budget to provide everything our Armed Forces need. All taxes paid by citizens and businesses will go to defense and security. Our army will become even stronger. We will accelerate new programs of production and procurement of weapons and equipment,” accentuated the Head of Government in a statement.

At the same time, in 2023, we will be actively creating a security infrastructure. This is an extensive network of modern equipped shelters within walking distance, noted the Prime Minister.

In particular, the Cabinet of Ministers has adopted a decision to improve the design of buildings. The Government officials determined the list of facilities, the construction of which must include shelters and other elements of protection. These are educational institutions, hospitals, residential and public buildings, critical infrastructure facilities.

According to the Prime Minister, among other priorities is Ukraine’s integration into the EU and NATO. Keeping in mind the launch of negotiations in the European Union, the CMU plans to develop a position on all 35 sections of the future Membership Agreement.

“The next NATO summit will be held in July in Vilnius. We have started preparing for it already. We strive to consolidate Ukraine's place in the transatlantic security system. The Ukrainian army directly on the battlefield is switching to NATO standards. We are already using NATO principles of strategic planning, education, training of personnel and units, warfare. Thanks to this, apart from succeeding in deterring the enemy, we are liberating the territories captured by it,” emphasized Denys Shmyhal.

The Head of Government added that the veterans’ policy was included in the essential direction of work this year. Inter alia, a Strategy of transition from military service to civilian life and an action plan for its implementation is planned to approve in 2023. It will be based on 4 key needs: economic independence, funds, housing, and medical services.

“Our veterans are our pride. And the state will create the best opportunities for them,” stressed Denys Shmyhal.

https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/denys-shmyhal-tsohorich-polovyna-biudzhetu-bude-spriamovana-na-zabezpechennia-vsim-neobkhidnym-zbroinykh-syl

 

Prime Minister voices 10 priorities in activities for the Government in 2023

Provision of the army, integration into the EU and NATO, energy sector, and recovery are among the core priorities and directions Ukraine will pursue in 2023. The Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal announced in a statement during a Government meeting on January 3.

"We are all continuously working to make this year the year of our victory.

We have a clear understanding of how to counteract the enemy, how to secure the front and hold the rear starting this year. We must remain united and continue to act as one. Therefore, today I will announce the government's priorities and the main directions along which we will move forward in 2023, with the key ones announced by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his annual address," stressed Denys Shmyhal.

According to the Prime Minister, the Government's priorities for 2023 are as follows:

1. Support of the army, maintaining defense and security.

2. Integration of Ukraine into the EU and NATO.

3. Energy front.

4. Restoration of Ukraine.

5. Macrofinancial stability and business support programs.

6. Veteran policy.

7. Education.

8. Continuation of decentralization reform.

9. Introduction of mandatory pension accumulation, and reform of the stock and capital markets.

10. Reform of state property management and public administration reform.

Denys Shmyhal stressed that 2023 will be the year of Ukraine's victory: "We are doing everything possible for this purpose. We help the Armed Forces, on whose shoulders our freedom rests and whose hands will forge our victory."

https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/premier-ministr-nazvav-10-priorytetiv-uriadu-na-2023-rik