Small Wars Journal

Analysis Suggests Warlords in Afghanistan are Bracing for Civil War Once US, NATO Troops Exit

Analysis Suggests Warlords in Afghanistan are Bracing for Civil War Once US, NATO Troops Exit by Diana Stancy Correll – Military Times

As the U.S. and the Taliban are on the brink of securing a peace deal that would remove U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan, a new report cautions that Afghan warlords are readying for a potential civil war.

According to analysis from the Institute for the Study of War, ethnic groups in Afghanistan including Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras are preparing for a possible civil war once U.S. and NATO forces depart Afghanistan — similar to the civil war that ensued after the Soviet Union pulled out of Afghanistan in 1989.

“Afghanistan is dangerously poised for a new Afghan Civil War reminiscent of the instability that followed the withdrawal of the Soviet Union in the 1990s,” Afghanistan research assistant Scott DesMarais wrote in the analysis published Aug. 15.

The analysis claims these groups have signaled they’ve already started mobilizing their communities in order to safeguard them against the Taliban, a Pashtun organization. Pashtuns comprise more than 40 percent of the Afghan population, according to the World Atlas

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