Small Wars Journal

06/05/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Fri, 06/05/2020 - 11:30am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

 1. Gov't Kowtows to Kim Jong-un's Sister over Leaflets

2. Moon pulls plugs on leaflets after North squawks

3. Why Is Kim Jong-un's Sister Suddenly Spitting Feathers?

4. Experts say inter-Korean pact is inapplicable to Seoul's balloon leaflets

5. Mayors from border areas urge unification ministry to help halt leaflets into N. Korea

6. Defector-turned-lawmaker espouses anti-North leaflet campaigns

7. Crackdowns on foreign video content reported in S. Pyongan Province (north Korea)

8.  N. Korea embraces YouTube as new tool for propaganda aimed at wider audience

9. N. Korea takes further steps to clamp down on military corruption

10. N. Korean students return to school amid stringent disease control measures

11. New construction underway at major N. Korean parade training ground

12. North Korean women in Hyesan voice discontent over forced labor

13. What's the truth about coronavirus and North Korea?

14. S. Korean military to conduct postponed maritime combined arms drill next week

15. S. Korea conducted Dokdo defense exercise this week

16. U.S. envoy comments on anti-U.S. protest in S. Korea

17. Diplomacy is needed to prevent S. Korea-Japan relations' catastrophic end

18. Sources of More Coronavirus Infections Untraceable

19. U.S. continues to urge S. Korea to show flexibility in defense cost talks: official

20. North Korea conducting massive cyber threats against US, other countries, reports say

21. N. Korean gold smugglers arrested near the Sino-NK border

 22. S. Korea can now 'choose' between U.S., China: ambassador

 

1. Gov't Kowtows to Kim Jong-un's Sister over Leaflets

The Chosun Ilbo, by Lee Yong-soo, Kim Myong-song, and Roh Suk-jo.  June 05, 2020.

The ROK government is taking a good bit of criticism over this.  There are a number of articles that are critical and rightly so for a number of reasons.

1.  This is a human rights issue.  According to most human rights assessments, including the 2014 UN Commission I\of Inquiry, the Korean people living in the north are denied access to uncensored information. These reports call on the international community to provide information to the Korean people in the north.  There is no better place (save China) than South Korea for getting information into North Korea.

2. Giving in to these "threats" from the north will result in no corresponding actions from the north that will further President Moon's peace strategy.

3. Giving in to these demands only confirmed to Kim Jong-un that his blackmail diplomacy works and he will soon be making more demands.

This is a terrible decision on the part of the Korean government and I urge President Moon to reconsider.  No good will come of this decision.

 

2. Moon pulls plugs on leaflets after North squawks

Korea Joong Ang Daily, by Ser Myo-Ja. June 04, 2020.

More (deserved) criticism.  The South must stand up to North Korea in the face of threats. It cannot back down to words such as these. Quote: ""Clearly speaking, the South Korean authorities will be forced to pay a dear price if they let this situation go on while making sort of excuses," Kim Yo-jong's English-language message, released through the North's state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), said."  A "dear price?"  We cannot allow such rhetoric to have such effects on strategic decision making.  Kim Yo-jong is really telling us how powerful is the information coming from the South.  Rather than stop these information and influence activities the alliance and the international community should be doubling down on them.

As Dr. Jung Pak often asks:  "Who does Kim Jong-un fear more? The US or the Korean people?  It is the Korean people, especially when they are armed with information from the outside world.

Ending information dissemination from the South will weaken the maximum pressure campaign.  As you can see in the last chapter of our report here information and influence activities should be a key component of an alliance maximum pressure 2.0 campaign.  https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2019/12/3/maximum-pressure-2

 

3. Why Is Kim Jong-un's Sister Suddenly Spitting Feathers?

The Chosun Ilbo, by Kim Myong-song.  June 05, 2020.

"Spitting feathers."  "Stoney faced young woman." "Maximizing efforts to tame South Korea."   The Chosun Ilbo is starting to use rhetoric like KCNA. 

But the serious question is why is this happening now and why is Kim yo-jong taking the lead?  She is after all the Vice Director of the Propaganda and Agitation Department and one of her "prime directives" is protecting and enhancing the reputation of Kim Jong-un.  Outside information is a direct threat to his reputation (and legitimacy).

Kwak Gil-sup provides an interesting assessment.  If Kim Jong-un made these demands and there was no effect it would undermine him.  He says Kim Yo-jong is playing the bad cop.

  

4. Experts say inter-Korean pact is inapplicable to Seoul's balloon leaflets

The Dong-a Libo, Sang-Ho Yun. June 05, 2020.

South Korean defense officials seem to be pushing back on the administration by saying the Comprehensive Military Agreement does not prohibit balloon launches.  The statement in the penultimate paragraph of the article is instructive and important (and I believe correct).

 

5. Mayors from border areas urge unification ministry to help halt leaflets into N. Korea

Yonhap News Agency, by Yi Wonju. June, 05 2020.

This saddens me.  A weak response from the mayors.  They should be standing up to North Korea.  Where is Neidermeyer when you need him?

Neidermeyer: You're all worthless and weak! Now drop and give me twenty!  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Dy2fo6E_pI

 

6. Defector-turned-lawmaker espouses anti-North leaflet campaigns

Yonhap news Agency. June 04 2020.

Rep. Ji Seong-ho is right in saying the right of the Korean people to information should be guaranteed. This is a human rights issue.  And human rights is a national security issue.

 

7. Crackdowns on foreign video content reported in S. Pyongan Province

Daily NK, by Ha Yoon Ah.  June, 05 2020.

This is also focused on professors and teachers using foreign media content.  But it is just another indicator the regime does not want the Korean people contaminated with any outside influence (though it cannot put the genie back in the bottle because there has already been a great proliferation of outside information).  But from an educational perspective this is one reason why the military, party, and technocrats are weak - most expect for the very trusted are authorized access to outside information.

But note the techniques by professors and teachers to get information to their students:  Getting approval for certain titles and then replacing the content.  A subtle form of resistance and doing what is right to try to give students a good education.

 

8. N. Korea embraces YouTube as new tool for propaganda aimed at wider audience

Yonhap News Agency, by Yi Wonju. June, 04 2020.

I have watched this YouTube channel.  Pretty slick videos.  North Korea is entering the 21st Century information age.  And of course these videos are going to appeal to the younger generations who get their news from YouTube, I had a long discussion with my daughter about the YouTube viewing habits of college students.  She showed me a list of news sites where many young people get their news which is filtered through a YouTube personality (some of it is way better than Fox and CNN and MSNBC).  But young people will go to this North Korean YouTube channel and be influenced to believe North Korea is an okay country that is just misunderstood and treated badly by the outside world.

 

9. N. Korea takes further steps to clamp down on military corruption

Daily NK, by Jeong tae Joo.  June 05, 2020.

This is an important indicator for potential regime instability. The regime is dependent on the support of the military for its survival, and the military must remain a coherent force - if there is a breakdown of any and all three chains of control it could have catastrophic effects on the military and then the regime.

 Disorder in the ranks is a threat to the regime and a potential problem for the ROK/US Alliance.

 

10. N. Korean students return to school amid stringent disease control measures

Daily NK, by Ha Yoon Ah. June 05, 2020. 

Again, does this indicate the regime has prevented or contained a coronavirus outbreak?  Surely the continued measures mean they still fear one.

Note the order to minimize mobilization of students for work projects.

 

11. New construction underway at major N. Korean parade training ground

Daily NK, by Jeong Tao Joo.  June, 04 2020. 

Kim Jong Un says, "I love a parade."  Maybe we should send him this 1932 cartoon video. https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x27gs19

But on a serious note the article speculates about preparations for unveiling new strategic weapons.  Parades are important tools for such things.  Kim gets to show us what he wants us to see (and remember the regime and nKPA are masters at denial and deception).

 

12. North Korean women in Hyesan voice discontent over forced labor

Daily NK, by Mun Dong Hul. June, 04 2020

Women are terribly abused in North Korea. Yet they are extremely resilient and strong and are responsible for the survival of so many families during and after the Arduous March of the 1994-1996 (Great Famine). And they are responsible for much of the market activity in the north running many businesses.  When you really think about it one of the great strengths of North Korea is Korean women.

 

13. What's the truth about coronavirus and North Korea?

Spectator US, by Edward Howell.  Jun, 04 2020.

Bottom line is we just do not know.  Maybe our intelligence community has a good assessment but from open source reporting we can surmise that either its draconian population or resources control measures have prevented it mitigated/contained an outbreak. Of if it is has suffered an outbreak those same measures have been effective in f preventing information from leaking outside of the north.

 

14. S. Korean military to conduct postponed maritime combined arms drill next week

Yonhap News Agency.  June 04, 2020.

A positive step forward.  This is very necessary to maintain readiness.  Training is perishable and must be conducted continually.

 

15. S. Korea conducted Dokdo defense exercise this week

Yonhap News Agency, by Oh-Seok-min. June 05, 2020.

Sadly I think South Korea is tougher on and would rather stand up to Japan more than North Korea.  This is not helpful.

 

16. U.S. envoy comments on anti-U.S. protest in S. Korea

Yonhap News Agency, June 04, 2020.

Good words from the Ambassador.  Sad that these protests have to occur and that they exploit our own internal problems and divisions.  But the eyes of the world are upon us.

Like the Ambassador, we should all respect and embrace the protests (not the riots). It is the ability to peaceably assemble and petition grievances to the government that makes a democracy strong.  Despite our problems we should take solace in the fact that people in the US and South Korea can freely protest without fear of retribution.

And as Congressman Jim Clyburn of South Carolina reminded us a few days ago, one of the great things about being part of a democracy is that we can correct our wrongs.

 

17. Diplomacy is needed to prevent S. Korea-Japan relations' catastrophic end

The Dong-a Libo. June 05, 2020.

The title says it all.  Korean diplomacy.  Japanese diplomacy.  US diplomacy.

 

18. Sources of More Coronavirus Infections Untraceable

The Chosun Ilbo, By Bae-Jun-yang.  June, 05 2020.

This. Is. Not. Good.

 

19. U.S. continues to urge S. Korea to show flexibility in defense cost talks: official

Yonhap News Agency, by Lee Haye-ah. June 05, 2020.

I have great respect for our diplomats who are trying to navigate the minefield of burden sharing.  It truly is a minefield these days. And unfortunately it is an unmarked minefield and our mine detecting equipment is inoperable and we do not know where the gaps and bypasses are located. 

However, I fear the words below are code for the US is still making demands for a lot of money and South Korea had better comply

 

20. North Korea conducting massive cyber threats against US, other countries, reports say

Fox News, by Brooke Cruthers. June 04, 2020.

Cyber is an important battlespace - for political warfare, for economic warfare and eventually for kinetic conventional warfare.  North Korea's all-purpose sword is designed to operate across the spectrum and I believe Kim will become more and more dependent upon it.

 

21. N. Korean gold smugglers arrested near the Sino-NK border

Daily NK, by Kim Yoo Jin. June 04, 2020. 

As they say, follow the money.  Although $30,000 is not a lot of money is this an early warning of capital flight. From North Korea?

 

22. S. Korea can now 'choose' between U.S., China: ambassador

Yonhap News Agency, by Lee haye-ah. June 03, 2020. 

I fear the Ambassador's remarks will be misinterpreted.  Surely South Korea has to walk a tightrope between the PRC (largest trading partner) and the US (treaty ally and security partner).  I know many who correctly say the ROK made its "choice" in 1953 when it signed the Mutual defense Treaty.  But what I think the Ambassador means is that Korea is now a great middle power and it can navigate between the two countries and the PRC-US competition without being forced to do something by either side. It has options.  And I think  when you look at the alliance, the ROK//US FTA, and now the G7 plus invitation it should be clear that South Korea is doing its best to navigate stormy seas.  The bottom line is the ROK is not being forced to make these agreements and decisions but is able to do so based on its strength.  That makes the decisions all the more important and legitimate.

 

 

 

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"All government, indeed every human benefit and enjoyment, every virtue, and every prudent act, is founded on compromise and barter."                                                                                                                                                                          

-Edmund Burke

 

"The chief task in life is simply this: to identify and separate matters so that I can say clearly to myself which are externals not under my control, and which have to do with the choices I actually control."                                                  

-Epictetus, The Discourses.

 

"When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."                                                                 

 -Frederic Bastiat