Small Wars Journal

05/11/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Tue, 05/11/2021 - 4:16pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. N. Korea says U.S. offer to explain outcome of policy review 'well received'

2. Biden administration is open to sharing coronavirus vaccines with North Korea

3. Pres. Moon Jae-in criticizes sending of anti-North Korea leaflets

4. North Korea is China's weapon

5. Source, destination of illicit weapons seized at sea still under investigation: Kirby

6. China’s gateway to North Korea feels chill of Covid-19 border closure

7. Main opposition party to send delegation to U.S. to discuss vaccine cooperation

8. New York Times opens Asia news hub in Seoul

9. How not to blow it (Moon-Biden Summit)

10. Special Address by President Moon Jae-in to Mark Four Years in Office

11. South Korea stumbles toward nuclear phase-out in favor of questionable wind power projects

12. Incheon stirs controversy with airport development plan in North Korea

13. South Korea Should Embrace Liberty in Confronting Pyongyang

14. Biden’s North Korea review is a diplomatic victory for Moon Jae-in

15. 'Glorious' North Korean Hummer Might Be The Least Appropriate Car Of All Time

 

1. N. Korea says U.S. offer to explain outcome of policy review 'well received'

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · May 11, 2021

An interesting development. We have shown diplomatic courtesy by offering to inform the north about our new policy. It is an opportunity to ensure there is no misunderstanding or mischaracterization of the policy. But is the north really willing to accept such a briefing? And more importantly is the regime reaching the point where the internal pressures are becoming so great to the regime that it must now negotiate as a means to survive.

From our Plan B for north Korea: “Any effective approach toward North Korea should be based on two new assumptions. The first recognizes that Kim will give up his nuclear program only when he concludes that the cost to him and his regime is too great – that is, when he believes possession of nuclear weapons threatens his survival. But external pressure alone, although important, will almost certainly fail to create the right cost-benefit ratio. It is the threat from the North Korean people that is most likely to cause Kim to give up his nuclear weapons.26 As former CIA analyst Jung Pak of the Brookings Institution has argued, “Kim fears his people more than he fears the United States. The people are his most proximate threat to the regime.”27 The ROK-U.S. alliance has yet to adopt a strategy with this in mind.

Kim, the DPRK military, and the North Korean elite must be made to recognize that keeping nuclear weapons poses an internal threat to their survival. External threats and actions alone will not suffice, though they are important. In addition, if these actors choose not to relinquish their nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, a maximum pressure 2.0 campaign should threaten to weaken the regime.

The second new assumption is that Kim will continue to employ a strategy based on subversion of South Korea; coercion and extortion of the international community to gain political and economic concessions; and ultimately the use of force to unify the peninsula under the domination of the North, thereby ensuring the survival of the Kim family regime. A key element of his strategy is to drive a wedge between South Korea and the United States. Kim’s strategy can best be described as a “long con” whereby he extracts as much as possible for the regime while conceding little to nothing and preparing to achieve unification under his control. Kim is pursuing a strategy established long ago by his grandfather and improved by his father.

This assumption requires the United States and South Korea to prepare for the possibility that Kim might refuse to relinquish his weapons of mass destruction (WMD). This assumption is buttressed by a U.S. intelligence estimate maintaining that he is unlikely to denuclearize.28 This cannot be discounted and must be factored into a new strategy.  

 

2. Biden administration is open to sharing coronavirus vaccines with North Korea

CNN · by Kylie Atwood

I agree that the regime has been consumed with internal challenges and threats that have prevented it from dealing with external issues. COVID, sanctions, natural disasters, collapsed economy (to levels much worse than in the last 2 decades since the Arduous march of 1994-1996), and internal unrest have all combined to keep inwardly focused. Yes the regime fears a COVID outbreak (and I would not accept the regime reports that there are no COVID cases inside north Korea though we have not seen evidence of a widespread outbreak,,,,yet).

However, I disagree with Dr. Terry here and think Dr Narang might have a more accurate assessment. It is very possible that the regime is desperate due to the effects of COVID and it might actually consider accepting vaccinations. However, we must be under no illusion that providing vaccines or conducting vaccine diplomacy will in any way change north Korean behavior and bring them to the negotiating table to negotiate in good faith as a responsible member of the international community. Yes, it might come to the negotiating table but it will do so when it judges the conditions are favorable to the regime. Unfortunately if we provide vaccines the regime may interpret it as success for its blackmail diplomacy -the use of increased tension, threats, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions). He might judge the conditions such that the US made a vaccination concessions ; therefore it may be willing to make the next concession which is of course what he desires most in the near term - sanctions relief. You can be sure if the north begins to talk about returning to the negotiating table the demand it will make will be sanctions relief and it will very likley be backed up by China, Russia, and perhaps even South Korea which is very willing to provide concessions. We must understand the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime and deal with it accordingly.

Excerpts: "Vaccine diplomacy is an easy effort to break this impasse because the Biden administration cannot do much about sanctions lifting so they have to look at what incentives to give to North Korea," said Sue Mi Terry, a former Korea analyst at the CIA and now a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "It depends on how desperate North Korea is." 

...

"It would be a great offer but there is no way that Kim Jong Un would ever accept them.There would be paranoia about what would be delivered by the US and there is also the possibility that China could be providing vaccines quietly to North Korean elites," said Vipin Narang, a professor at MIT.

 

3. Pres. Moon Jae-in criticizes sending of anti-North Korea leaflets

donga.com · May 11, 2021

President Moon doubles down on violating human rights and attacking the liberty of Korean citizens. This is so disappointing. It will be interesting to see how he explains this to President Biden at the May 21st summit. This is not acceptable for alliance partners who have long shared values - freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, free market economy, rule of law, and human rights for all.

 

4. North Korea is China's weapon

Newsweek · by Gordon G. Chang · May 10, 2021

My comments to Gordon below.

I would add that north Korean can be a spoiler in Great Power Competition to include against China (even if China exploits it as a weapon).

My additional thoughts: “Of the four revisionist and rogue powers we tend to isolate north Korea as a separate and often lesser included case within the larger national security challenges and also because of its perceived geographic confines to Northeast Asia. 

However, I would argue the Kim family regime is actually a global problem and one that could be a spoiler in great power competition. What is a spoiler? – The extreme type is the total spoiler which is defined as groups or individuals that will never compromise or negotiate. Although the international relations theorists say this is actually extremely rare, I would argue that it applies to north Korea and that has important implications for the US and all the powers competing in Great Power Competition. North Korea has the potential through words and deeds to upend cooperation and competition and this could lead to conflict. And what makes north Korea a spoiler most of all? It’s absolute unwillingness to negotiate the denuclearization of north Korea. It is its nuclear weapons that provide it with the ability to operate around the world to achieve its objectives and this can put a wrench in great power competition.

We must understand that north Korea is a self-described revolutionary power and its constitution and Workers Party of Korea charter call for it to complete the revolution to rid the peninsula of foreign influence and unify it under what I like to describe as the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State to support the single vital interest – survival of the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime. It is employing the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification on its terms. It is conducting a “long con” to obtain sanctions relief while keeping its nuclear weapons and military capabilities intact. It is using blackmail diplomacy -increased tension, threats, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions. Finally, it is conducting political warfare with Juche characteristics – “Political warfare is the use of all means other than military force to compel an opponent to do one’s will. Its exercise reflects a hostile intent.” The north conducts political warfare against its own people, the ROK, Japan, the US, and dating back to the Korean War, even China and Russia. As LTG (RET) Chun In Bum has written other adversaries in the world recognize the success of the North Korean regime and hope to emulate its success. This in turn is a new source of danger and a potential threat to the international order and the free world. It can make north Korea into a form of spoiler.

 

5. Source, destination of illicit weapons seized at sea still under investigation: Kirby

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · May 11, 2021

The Korean press is seeking answers to the right questions: How much of north Korean proliferation of weapons is supporting Iran's malign activities in the Middle East (and Africa). I would call attention to the excellent research by Dr. Bruce Bechtol on this subject: “North Korea’s Illegal Weapons Trade

The Proliferation Threat From Pyongyang:

Excerpts from Dr. Bechtol's essay:North Korea’s best customer, however, is not Syria but Iran. The two states’ relationship began in earnest during the Iran-Iraq War. By the end of the war in 1988, some 300 North Korean military advisers were on the ground in Iran, and Pyongyang had reportedly sold Tehran more than $1 billion in conventional arms, training, and military assistance.

Like Syria, Iran is a major purchaser of North Korean conventional weapons. Iran’s Ghadir-class submarine, for instance, appears to be an exact replica of a North Korean submarine called the Yeono—the same model that sank a South Korean navy corvette in 2010. The Iranian–North Korean relationship, however, also extends to Iranian funding of weapons purchases by its regional proxies and allies, including Hezbollah, the Syrian government, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Hamas in Gaza—many of which come from North Korea. According to Larry Niksch, a senior associate of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, “North Korea may receive from Iran upwards of $2 to $3 billion annually . . . for the various forms of collaboration between them.” This estimate makes sense, particularly if one includes the many arms purchases for Syria and nonstate actors that Iran has made from Pyongyang in recent years. The Houthis have used North Korean ballistic missiles—probably Scuds captured from the Yemeni government—to threaten the Saudis and have also used longer-range variants of North Korean missiles, provided by Iran, to target Riyadh. In April, Israeli intelligence assassinated a Hamas engineer in Malaysia who was involved in negotiating an arms deal with Pyongyang.

 

6. China’s gateway to North Korea feels chill of Covid-19 border closure

SCMP · by Kinling Lo· May 09, 2021

north Korea's self imposed COVID mitigation measures have done more damage than international sanctions. We must never forget the suffering of the Korean 

 

7. Main opposition party to send delegation to U.S. to discuss vaccine cooperation

en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · May 11, 2021

We can expect this will also be an issue at the 21 May Biden-Moon summit.

 

8. New York Times opens Asia news hub in Seoul

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Sarah Kim

As did the Washington Post.

 

9. How not to blow it (Moon-Biden Summit)

koreanjoongangdaily.joins.com · by Choi Hoon · May 11, 2021

Very wise advice here: "There is a simple way for Moon to have a successful trip to Washington. He must proclaim that South Korea is a free democracy that values human rights and peace even as it lives next to a die-hard communist state. Those kind of shared values will reassure the U.S. in its goal of complete denuclearization of North Korea through diplomatic channels and also help restore the relationship with Japan. I hope Moon speaks for the entire South Korean population in Washington, not a certain group of people."

 

10. Special Address by President Moon Jae-in to Mark Four Years in Office

english1.president.go.kr

Excerpts: “If there is a will, there is a way. It is the aspiration of 80 million Koreans to end the era of confrontation and conflict on the Korean Peninsula and usher in an era of peace and prosperity. I will consider the remaining one year of my term to be the last opportunity to move from an incomplete peace toward one that is irreversible.

Now, the time for long deliberations is also coming to an end. It is time to take action. The new Biden Administration in the United States has also completed reviewing its North Korea policy. This is the result of close consultation with us. We welcome the direction of the Biden Administration’s North Korea policy that aims to achieve the primary goal of the Korean Peninsula’s complete denuclearization through diplomacy with a flexible, gradual and practical approach by building upon the foundation of the Singapore Declaration.

The ROK-U.S. alliance will be solidified through the bilateral summit scheduled in late May. We will restore dialogue between the two Koreas and between the United States and North Korea and find a way to step once again toward peaceful cooperation by more closely coordinating policies toward North Korea.

I will not be pressed by time or become impatient during the remainder of my term. However, if there is an opportunity to restart the clock of peace and advance the peace process on the Korean Peninsula, I will do everything I can. I look forward to North Korea responding positively. I hope that we will be able to build peace and move toward prosperity together. We have seen clear potential for issues to be solved diplomatically. I hope that the people will also join hands to create an atmosphere for dialogue. In particular, it is never desirable to dampen inter-Korean relations by violating inter-Korean agreements and current laws. I stress that the Government has no choice but to strictly enforce the laws.

 

11. South Korea stumbles toward nuclear phase-out in favor of questionable wind power projects

onekoreanetwork.com · May 9, 2021

The Moon administration's effort to reduce and eventually end reliance nuclear power is going to be a long term strategic error.

 

12. Incheon stirs controversy with airport development plan in North Korea

The Korea Times · by Nam Hyun-woo · May 11, 2021

Fantasy?

 

13. South Korea Should Embrace Liberty in Confronting Pyongyang

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · May 10, 2021

Standing by your values is a national security imperative - freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, free market economy, rule of law, and human rights for all. These trump any authoritarian dictator's rule.

President Biden needs to have a frank discussion with President Moon about our shared values and how to stand up for them and how to use them in response to north Korean political warfare with juche characteristics.

 

14. Biden’s North Korea review is a diplomatic victory for Moon Jae-in

lowyinstitute.org · by Khang Vu

Really? Yes it will be a compromise policy for sure but we have not seen the details yet. 

Of course we should not be viewing the policy of winning and losing in terms of our ally.

 

15. 'Glorious' North Korean Hummer Might Be The Least Appropriate Car Of All Time

dmarge.com · by Jamie Weiss · May 11, 2021

I couldn't resist sending this one.

 

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“There were occasions when Shakespeare was a very bad writer indeed. You can see how often in books of quotations. People who like quotations love meaningless generalizations.”  

- Graham Greene, Travels with My Aunt

 

"Disinformation does not mean false information. It means misleading information—misplaced, irrelevant, fragmented or superficial information—information that creates the illusion of knowing something,but which in fact leads one away from knowing."

- Neil Postman

 

“It is the politicians who dream their dreams - sometimes dangerous dreams, (...). A top intelligence officer has to be harder-headed than the toughest businessman. One has to trim to the reality, (...) (Sir Nigel Irvine, p. 428-429).”

- Frederick Forsyth, The Fourth Protocol

Categories: News