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"Small wars are operations undertaken under executive authority, wherein military force is combined with diplomatic pressure in the internal or external affairs of another state whose government is unstable, inadequate, or unsatisfactory for the preservation of life and of such interests as are determined by the foreign policy of our Nation."

-- Small Wars Manual, 1940

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Journal

Ukraine and the Threat of Citizen Resistance
by Brian S. Petit | Fri, 01/21/2022 - 7:41pm | 0 comments
Ukraine is bracing for a Russian invasion. Undermatched, undersized, and militarily less capable, Ukraine will lose a conventional, combined arms fight, should it come. Facing this prospect, Ukraine is investing in and publicizing its hedging strategy: citizen resistance.
Cultural Heritage in Ukraine: a Gap in Russian IO Monitoring
by Damian Koropeckyj | Fri, 01/21/2022 - 7:31pm | 0 comments
The construction of monuments by Russia, its proxies, and Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine reveals a new avenue for Information Operations and, in turn, a blind spot in both programs monitoring Russian IO and those monitoring cultural heritage in conflict such as USAR’s Monument Officers (38G/6V). This tactic extends to territories outside of Ukraine where Russia is conducting gray zone operations.
Third Generation Gangs Strategic Note No. 45: Rio De Janeiro Operação Cidade Integrada (Operation Integrated City) Police ‘Occupy’ Favelas to Restore Territorial Control
by John P. Sullivan, by José de Arimatéia da Cruz, by Robert Bunker | Fri, 01/21/2022 - 1:06pm | 0 comments
Police in Rio de Janeiro (RJ) began a major operation—Operação Cidade Integrada (Operation Integrated City)—on Wednesday 19 January 2022 to retake control of RJ’s Jacarezinho favela.  Approximately 1,200 police (Polícia Militar or Military Police) took part in the co-ordinated action. The operation is reminiscent of the UPP (Unidades de Polícia Pacificadora or Pacifying Police Units) approach initially implemented ahead of the 2016 Olympics. This new initiative apparently seeks to expand that approach by integrating comprehensive social programs to restore state authority and governance. The action seeks to displace criminal governance by the Comando Vermelho (CV or Red Command) and milícia (militia) groups.
THE PLIGHT OF THE GREEN BERET: Why Special Forces is still losing most of its junior leaders and its survivors are forced to contend with a cultural crisis.
by Paul Schneider | Thu, 01/20/2022 - 9:06pm | 2 comments
Currently over 50% of our best and brightest Special Forces Captains are leaving the Army and the shadow of huge morale issues continues to haunt the Special Forces Regiment.  Many factors are considered as to why: including intense deployment schedules, no deployment potential, stress on families, limited command opportunities once promoted, and the promise of a more lucrative civilian career.  Each of those reasons have traditionally had merit, but a glaring deficiency underpinning this is a flawed system that manifests itself in how we select and promote Special Forces (SF) officers.
Modern Russian Statecraft: Neither New nor Hybrid. Part Two: Post-Soviet and Still Soviet
by Philip Wasielewski | Thu, 01/20/2022 - 8:11pm | 0 comments
Modern Russian statecraft does not diverge from how Moscow has traditionally pursued its foreign policy goals. The use of extraterritorial assassinations, the 2007 Bronze Night incident in Estonia, and the 2014 invasion of Ukraine provide ample evidence that Russian use of coercive statecraft is part of a long-standing grand strategy to protect itself by dividing the West.
Operation Barbarossa and Mission Command: A Historical Reaffirmation of the Merits of Auftragstaktik
by Daniel J. O’Connor | Thu, 01/20/2022 - 4:52pm | 0 comments
       The topic of mission command has become a common topic in American military thought recently.  Due to the generally increasing velocity of modern combat and the constant need to evolve methods, it is a fitting time to reexamine historical examples in an effort to better plan future doctrine.  During the early days of the Eastern Front in World War II, the Nazi Army made a bold push for Moscow aiming for the complete destruction of the Soviet military.  The Soviets, through a series of serious blows and defeats nearly witnessed a complete collapse before the Nazi aggression.  While the Red Army eventually was able to go on the offensive and the war was won by the Allies, this view of the period as an unequivocal Soviet victory is problematic.  Arguably the Soviets survived due to, among other things, actions outside their control.  Even more perplexingly, they survived, in large part, due to their ability to sacrifice huge tracts of territory and quantities of manpower to buy time.  However, this does not diminish the fact that the Soviet Union had to “make extraordinary, inordinate efforts to stop the victorious advance of the Wehrmacht.”
WHY RESPONDING IS LOSING: The Plays We Run (and the Plays We Don’t) to Defeat Disinformation
by Alan Kelly | Wed, 01/19/2022 - 8:29pm | 0 comments
Why are bad guys so good at spreading disinformation and good guys so bad at stopping it? Through the lens of a patented and tested framework, the Taxonomy of Influence Strategies, the author illustrates how policies and practices of response do more to accelerate than slow the deceptive and mistaken messages hostile actors sow. This essay is recommended reading for practitioners of strategic communications, public diplomacy, information operations, psyops and related fields of influence management.
Civil Unrest and Natural Disasters: Debunking a Myth That’s Been Around Too Long
by Tom Johansmeyer | Wed, 01/19/2022 - 8:22pm | 0 comments
When there’s a natural disaster, according to conventional wisdom, civil unrest is likely to follow. That line of thinking is as seductive as it is intuitive. However, there isn’t much data to support it. The occasional half-hearted inquiry forced by the lack of empirical evidence generally leaves you as unsatisfied as your first self-cooked Thanksgiving dinner. The notion that natural disaster increases the risk of civil unrest taps into the dark sense that people will revert to survival instincts when the norm is threatened. When it comes to non-terror political violence following natural catastrophes, though, the historical experience just isn’t there. The occasional instance of it is an anomaly at best – and a debatable one at that – with almost no foundation of 70 years of catastrophe data.
Venezuela: Understanding Political, External, and Criminal Actors in an Authoritarian State
by R. Evan Ellis | Fri, 01/14/2022 - 4:38am | 0 comments
The predictable triumph by Maduro loyalists in Venezuela’s rigged November 2021 elections was a symbolic nail in the coffin for the attempt by the de jure government of Juan Guaido to restore the more liberal type of democracy previously prevailing in the country. Venezuela now seems to ever more resemble Cuba, with an authoritarian government in control for the long haul. Yet while Venezuela is unlikely to return to democratic governance anytime soon, parallels to Cuba conceal the complex dynamic between regime figures, external state actors, and criminal and terrorist groups that is shaping the country’s future.
A social network analysis of Genaro García Luna and his alleged ties to the Sinaloa Cartel
by Francisco Sollano Jr | Tue, 01/11/2022 - 5:22pm | 1 comment
This article is a mixed methods research study on Genaro García Luna—former head of Mexican Federal law enforcement—and his ties to the Sinaloa Cartel and other Mexican officials involved in the criminal organization from 2003 to 2008. This study thus explores the role and influence of corrupt Mexican officials that allowed for a secure and efficient illegal trafficking of drugs inside Mexico and into the United States. It should be noted that, not all individuals found in this Social Network Analysis (SNA) are assumed to be guilty or have been proven so via conviction in a court of law. The presumption of innocence is an important concept that applies to the actors discussed here.

Blog Posts

1/23/2022 National Security and Korean News and Commentary
by Dave Maxwell | Sun, 01/23/2022 - 12:07pm | 0 comments

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1/22/2022 National Security and Korean News and Commentary
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1/21/2022 National Security and Korean News and Commentary
by Dave Maxwell | Fri, 01/21/2022 - 8:56am | 0 comments

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1/20/2022 National Security and Korean News and Commentary
by Dave Maxwell | Thu, 01/20/2022 - 9:40am | 0 comments

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1/19/2022 National Security and Korean News and Commentary
by Dave Maxwell | Wed, 01/19/2022 - 10:17am | 0 comments

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1/18/2022 National Security and Korean News and Commentary
by Dave Maxwell | Tue, 01/18/2022 - 10:00am | 0 comments

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1/17/2022 National Security and Korean News and Commentary
by Dave Maxwell | Mon, 01/17/2022 - 9:33am | 0 comments

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1/16/2022 National Security and Korean News and Commentary
by Dave Maxwell | Sun, 01/16/2022 - 11:31am | 0 comments

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1/15/2022 National Security and Korean News and Commentary
by Dave Maxwell | Sat, 01/15/2022 - 10:41am | 0 comments

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1/14/2022 National Security and Korean News and Commentary
by Dave Maxwell | Fri, 01/14/2022 - 9:58am | 0 comments

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1/13/2022 National Security and Korean News and Commentary
by Dave Maxwell | Thu, 01/13/2022 - 9:39am | 0 comments

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1/12/2022 National Security and Korean News and Commentary
by Dave Maxwell | Wed, 01/12/2022 - 9:49am | 1 comment

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Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: January (December 4, 2021-January 11, 2022)
by SWJ Editors | Tue, 01/11/2022 - 9:35pm | 1 comment

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1/11/2022 National Security and Korean News and Commentary
by Dave Maxwell | Tue, 01/11/2022 - 9:55am | 31 comments

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1/10/2022 National Security and Korean News and Commentary
by Dave Maxwell | Mon, 01/10/2022 - 9:18am | 0 comments

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