1/18/2021 News & Commentary – Korea
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. FAST THINKING: What we’re watching in North Korea
2. N. Korea’s parliament rubber stamps new development plans
3. Moon urges Biden to learn from Trump’s N. Korea diplomacy
4. South Korea caught in the middle as China, US ‘whales’ face off
5. Biden’s North Korea challenge
6. WW3 fears: South Korea caught in brutal crossfire between China and US as tensions soar
7. Moon says S. Korea-U.S. exercise could be discussed with N. Korea if necessary
8. Joe Biden has a nuclear choice to make on North Korea
9. N. Korea convenes parliamentary meeting after party congress
10. Moon believes S. Korea will achieve faster herd immunity formation than other nations
11. New virus cases at almost 2-month low on fewer tests, infections slowdown
12. How Biden can navigate a new era in South Korean politics
13. Outgoing U.S. envoy meets P.M., expresses hope to play role in advancing alliance
14. Moon says it’s too early to talk about pardoning Park Geun-hye, MB
15. N.Korea has new 2nd-in-command
16. Almost half of Kim Jong-Un’s cabinet is replaced
17. Moon hopes stalled N.K. nuke diplomacy will pick up from Singapore Declaration
1. FAST THINKING: What we’re watching in North Korea
Atlantic Council · Markus Garlauskas · January 13, 2021
2. N. Korea’s parliament rubber stamps new development plans
Associated Press · Kim Tong-Hyung · January 18, 2021
3. Moon urges Biden to learn from Trump’s N. Korea diplomacy
Associated Press · Kim Tong-Hyung · January 18, 2021
So, is President Moon implying Trump’s biggest mistake was NOT easing “crippling” sanctions? I would argue that is one of the most important things Trump did – to not make concessions and provide sanctions relief interurban for nothing substantive from North Korea.
Rather than give misguided advice to President Biden, I would offer that one of the fundamental problems we have in the alliance are the erroneous strategic assumptions under which the Moon administration is operating, namely that Kim Jong-Un shares Moon’s vision of peace and reconciliation. All evidence points to this assumption being patently wrong.
The first thing the alliance must do is reevaluate the strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime and ensure they are understood, accurate, and aligned between the ROK and US.
All evidence points to Kim Jong-Un not being willing to denuclearize. Any objective assessment of the 8th Party Congress and the October 10th 75th Anniversary of the KWP shows that Kim has no intention of denuclearization. Belief otherwise could very well lead to catastrophic strategic mistakes.
4. South Korea caught in the middle as China, US ‘whales’ face off
South China Morning Post · Eduardo Baptista · January 17, 2021
When whales wrestle, shrimp die.
5. Biden’s North Korea challenge
Eurasia Review · Naoka Aoki · January 18, 2021
Biden cannot ignore north Korea, but he also cannot overreact to Kim’s actions and rhetoric.
We should not sacrifice readiness and the security of the ROK/US alliance. Also, ROK/US CFC has sustained multi-echelon training. Although it has adjusted the scale, scope, intensity, and timing of training, it has not stopped training. To halt training would be the height of irresponsibility.
We should not be afraid of the North’s “provocations” in response to training. Kim will conduct provocations when he thinks he can achieve strategic effects and gain an advantage. He does not conduct provocations simply in response to our exercises, though, of course, his rhetoric will blame the exercises. We should keep this in mind as we sit here today: the North is embarked on its Winter Training Cycle, which will bring the NKPA to the highest state of readiness by the end of March… the optimal time to attack the South.
6. WW3 fears: South Korea caught in brutal crossfire between China and US as tensions soar
Express · Steven Brown · January 17, 2021
Advice to South Korea if you find yourself in the kill zone (crossfire) of an ambush, move out of the kill zone. You are putting yourself in the middle. Trying to appease China for economic reasons while maintaining a security alliance with the US will likely not improve your economy or security. Stay out of the crossfire by not putting yourself in that position.
7. Moon says S. Korea-U.S. exercise could be discussed with N. Korea if necessary
Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · January 18, 2021
This is a huge mistake. This is not the way to start off relations with the Biden administration. You do not stop training to appease North Korea (especially when it has not let up on its training and has not compiled with the provisions of the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement).
We have always notified the North of our training to ensure there is no misunderstanding. But combined military training cannot be a concession to the North or used as a bargaining chip.
We must realize why the North (rhetorically) “attacks’ alliance exercises. Kim Jung-Un wants to weaken the alliance, to split it, and to make it untenable for US forces to remain on the peninsula. He knows full well the exercises are defensive in nature, but he exploits the exercises as part of his political warfare strategy to achieve his long-term objective to dominate the Korean peninsula.
8. Joe Biden has a nuclear choice to make on North Korea
National Interest · Eric Gomez · January 18, 2021
Yes, we have to deal with North Korea as it really is and not as we would wish it to be. Yes, it has nuclear weapons and has no intention of giving them up. But that does not mean we should accept it as a nuclear weapons state or allow it to achieve its objectives as a nuclear state.
9. N. Korea convenes parliamentary meeting after party congress
Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · January 18, 2021
It is important for us to know the policies that it rubber stamps.
10. Moon believes S. Korea will achieve faster herd immunity formation than other nations
Yonhap News Agency ·장동우 · January 18, 2021
This does not make sense to me. What do public health experts say about this?
11. New virus cases at almost 2-month low on fewer tests, infections slowdown
Yonhap News Agency · 주경돈 · January 18, 2021
Fewer tests. Is that a useful metric?
12. How Biden can navigate a new era in South Korean politics
Diplomat · Brian Kim · January 15, 2021
All liberals are not the same. Korean and US liberals do not have their values and ideology completely aligned.
Two keywords here: “unprecedented power:”
13. Outgoing U.S. envoy meets P.M., expresses hope to play role in advancing alliance
Yonhap News Agency · 장동우 · January 18, 2021
Despite all the criticism of Trump policies, we have had a strong Korea team with some outstanding members for the past few years. I hope going forward they will play a role in Track 2 and Track 1.5 discussions and work.
14. Moon says it’s too early to talk about pardoning Park Geun-hye, MB
Korea Joong Ang Daily · Ser Myo-Ja · January 18, 2021
Just do the right thing. They don’t deserve to be in jail.
15. N.Korea has new 2nd-in-command
Chosun Ilbo · Kim Myong-Song · January 18, 2021
The worst job in North Korea is to be called KJU’s number 2. Few survive long in that “position.”
16. Almost half of Kim Jong-un’s cabinet is replaced
Korea Joong Ang Daily · Shim Kyu-Seok · January 18, 2021
The “Kimologists” have their work cut out for themselves updating the leadership charts for the regime and party. I want to know where those who have been replaced have gone.
17. Moon hopes stalled N.K. nuke diplomacy will pick up from Singapore Declaration
Yonhap News Agency · 장동우 · January 18, 2021
Singapore declaration:
North Korea Negotiating Strategy (post Panmunjom, Singapore, Pyongyang summits):
Key “agreement” = denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula
1. Change relationship declaration of the end of the war (end of hostile US policy – i.e., peace regime)
2. Sanctions relief (permanent removal)
3. Denuclearization of the South (end of alliance, removal of troops, end of nuclear umbrella over ROK and Japan)
4. Then negotiate dismantlement of the north’s and ICBM programs
In Short:
NK: change relationship, build trust, denuclearize
US: denuclearize, build trust, change relationship
I Dream A World
I dream a world where man
No other man will scorn,
Where love will bless the earth
And peace its paths adorn
I dream a world where all
Will know sweet freedom’s way,
Where greed no longer saps the soul
Nor avarice blights our day.
A world I dream where black or white,
Whatever race you be,
Will share the bounties of the earth
And every man is free,
Where wretchedness will hang its head
And joy, like a pearl,
Attends the needs of all mankind-
Of such I dream, my world!
-Langston Hughes
“I still have a dream, a dream deeply rooted in the American dream – one day this nation will rise up and live up to its creed, ‘We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all men are created equal.’”
– Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
