7/14/2020 News & Commentary – Korea
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. ‘S. Korea’s prosperity is thanks to heroes like Paik Sun-yup,’ U.S. NSC says
2. Gen. Paik Sun-yup of my memories
3. We send food and information into North Korea. Why is Seoul trying to stop us?
4. Rise of Kim Jong-Un’s sister marks increase North Korean cyber attacks
5. New COVID cases complicate US military missions in Japan, South Korea
6. NK poised to test submarine-launched ballistic missile: think tank
7. Kim Jong-Un zigs, Kim Yo-Jong zags, and how North Korea negotiates
8. Kim Jong-un’s sister just put an end to Trump’s nuclear talks
9. Trump may play into Pyongyang tactics in possible summit
10. N.K. media hints at optimism about S. Korea’s new security lineup
11. North Korea’s barbaric indoctrination laid bare as Kim Jong-un dubbed ‘literal god’
12. Train destroyed in North Korea fire was carrying food, report says
13. Why does anyone listen to John Bolton on North Korea?
14. One in three South Korean COVID-19 patients improve with remdesivir
15. N. Korea is buying up dogs to supply restaurants in Pyongyang
16. S. Korea seeks to request pre-departure COVID-19 tests for incoming USFK members
17. My Quarantine Experience on Yeongjong Island in South Korea
1. ‘S. Korea’s prosperity is thanks to heroes like Paik Sun-yup,’ U.S. NSC says
The Dong-A Ilbo · by [email protected] · July 14, 2020
Excellent statement from our NSC as well as former CINCs.
I think we should initiate an effort to build a statue of General Paik at the Korean War Memorial on the Mall. He is one of the most important and iconic symbols of the ROK/US alliance.
2. Gen. Paik Sun-yup of my memories
The Dong-A Ilbo · by Op-Eds · July 14, 2020
I cannot find the name of the author of this piece. It is on the OpEd page of the Donga Ilbo.
3. We send food and information into North Korea. Why is Seoul trying to stop us?
The Washington Post · by Park Sang Hak · July 13, 2020
The title asks the right question – the one that the Korean people in the South should be asking of their government and the one that we as a blood alliance partner should be asking of the Moon administration. As Mr. Park says, human rights groups should not be persecuted. I believe they must be protected and supported. Information and influence activities are not only a key element of sustaining maximum pressure on the regime. They contribute to undermining the legitimacy of the regime, they support one of the many human rights abuses noted by the UN Commission of Inquiry in 2014 (e.g. the lack of free and open information available to the Korean people living in the North), they inform and educate Koreans about the human rights protections they deserve, they inform them that their human rights are denied for the purpose of keeping Kim Jong-Un in power, and, lastly, they help prepare the Korean people for unification. It is the right thing to do to get information to the Koreans. Anyone who argues that these activities hinder diplomacy and engagement should be reminded of what Kim is doing to the Korean people living in the North. Even if the North is appeased by giving into this demand, the regime is not going to change its behavior or negotiate or act in good faith but instead will take such appeasement as license to make even more demands to support its long con (to get sanctions relief while keeping nuclear weapons) and conduct its long term political warfare strategy with Juche characteristics, which is to achieve domination of the peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State to ensure the survival of the Kim family regime.
4. Rise of Kim Jong-un’s sister marks increase North Korean cyberattacks
Washington Times · by Guy Taylor · July 12, 2020
Cyber is in the title and North Korea’s hacking and phishing attacks are described. But this is about more than cyber. It is the information and influence activities of Suzanne Scholte, whose work should also be supported. People like Suzanne and others are having an effect on the North, which is why North Korean hackers are targeting them. Their work threatens the regime. And that is a good thing.
I also make a few comments on influence as well. Guy Taylor, the journalist, references our report on a North Korean strategy, a plan B for maximum pressure 2.0. Our 5th section is on information and influence activities and it begins on page 46 here.
5. New COVID cases complicate US military missions in Japan, South Korea
Voice of America · by William Gallo · July 13, 2020
I know the military commanders are putting into place strict procedures to prevent any spread of the coronavirus infection throughout the ROK/US CFC and subordinate component headquarters. But these headquarters are petri dishes for the infection due to the large number of people who will be working in close confines in windowless burners with re-circulated air. I fear, come the fall, we may have a serious number of infected senior personnel, which could have a greater impact on readiness than if we did not conduct the exercise. As I note below, we need to train. But we have to do the risk analysis and weigh the potential costs versus the benefits.
6. NK poised to test submarine-launched ballistic missile: think tank
American Military News · by Asia News Network – TNS · July 13, 2020
Perhaps this is why we recently deployed additional ISR assets to Kadena.
7. Kim Jong-un zigs, Kim Yo-jong zags, and how North Korea negotiates
The Interpreter · by Khang Vu · July 13, 2020
Yes, it does have a purpose: to execute the regime’s long con and conduct political warfare with Juche characteristics (apologies for continuing to beat this dead horse even more!). There is nothing new to this 7 decade old pattern. The TTPs may change (sharper zigs and zags perhaps), but the pattern and intent remain the same.
8. Kim Jong-un’s sister just put an end to Trump’s nuclear talks
Slate · by Fred Kaplan · July 13, 2020
Maybe Mr. Kaplan thinks it was a little noticed statement, but I think most of us are tracking what Kim Yo-Jong says. The “dear Sister?” I wonder if that is an authorized moniker like Dear Leader or Great leader or Supreme Leader? Or the Supreme Great and Dear Leader? But, I have been wondering if the “dear Sister” is actually Kim Jong-Un’s Christmas or New Year’s gift to us. Mr. Kaplan asks the $64,000 question in the conclusion: is Kim about to take a “wild risk?” We need to be ready.
9. Trump may play into Pyongyang tactics in possible summit
The Straits Times · by Editorial Notes · July 13, 2020
I think not. We have to outplay Kim’s long con with our long game. I seriously doubt Kim will agree to a summit unless we make concessions of guaranteed sanctions relief. I do not think President Trump will do that. He will do a lot of things with his unconventional, experimental, top-down, pen-pal diplomacy, but I do not think he is going to lift sanctions. It is his best current leverage and the fact that Kim has failed to successfully play both Moon and Trump to get sanctions relief is putting Kim Jong-Un under enormous pressure. We need to hold the line until his elite military puts sufficient pressure on him to change his strategy or take some other action.
10. N.K. media hints at optimism about S. Korea’s new security lineup
Yonhap News Agency · by Yi Wonju · July 14, 2020
Go figure. Maybe they think it will be deja vu all over again? They have won the power ball lottery and expect to receive hundreds of millions of dollars as they did during the Sunshine Policy.
I would be happy about this if these “unification activists” would focus their efforts, leading to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: a secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK). I fear this is not their vision, but I would like to be proven wrong.
I would also be happy if the Moon administration would exploit the North’s optimism while playing its own long game with US support against Kim’s long con.
11. North Korea’s barbaric indoctrination laid bare as Kim Jong-un dubbed ‘literal god’
Express · by Joel Day · July 13, 2020
Yes, we must focus on the regime’s human rights abuses. Note how the regime reacts against the UK action on sanctions over human rights. It is a threat to the regime. Talk and actions on human rights weakens the regime. Talk on the nuclear weapons program reinforces regime legitimacy. And it is much harder for the North’s Propaganda and Agitation department to counter human rights activities by the outside world while they salivate over any and all talk about the North Korean nuclear and missile threat.
12. Train destroyed in North Korea fire was carrying food, report says
UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · July 13, 2020
Again: an accident, incompetence, or sabotage?
13. Why does anyone listen to John Bolton on North Korea?
The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · July 13, 2020
Well, he was in the room and the author of this piece was not.
Yes, there are many things on which I disagree with Mr. Bolton – the continued use of the “Libya model’ for one (if only to play to Kim’s ego, we should understand that the only “model” he will accept is a North Korean model – not a Libya model, nor Vietnam model, nor Chinese style reforms, etc. – everything has to be uniquely North Korea). And deterrence works (or as Sir Lawrence Freedman says, “Deterrence works, until it doesn’t.”) We can and must deter an attack on South Korea.
But I think Mr. Bolton has this exactly right. He understands Kim’s long con and strategy as well as the regime’s blackmail diplomacy playbook. And the only thing more dangerous is for authors like Mr. DePetris to not grasp this and to think that appeasing the regime will somehow bring peace and stability.
14. One in three South Korean COVID-19 patients improve with remdesivir
Reuters · by Sangmi Cha, Miyoung Kim, & Robert Birsel · July 13, 2020
15. N. Korea is buying up dogs to supply restaurants in Pyongyang
Daily NK · by Kim Yoo Jin · July 14, 2020
The regime is buying up dogs using IOUs, promising future rice or Chinese cooking oil by October: an indicator of problems on many levels. It must be very upsetting to Kim (excuse my sarcasm). The focus is on feeding the people in Pyongyang and implying those outside of Pyongyang need to lessen his worries by helping to feed the people in Pyongyang. This illustrates the hyperthermia analogy of North Korea: the body must focus on keeping the core temperature warm and it does that by cutting off the circulation to the extremities. Those extremities contribute nothing to keep the core warm so like areas outside of Pyongyang they are “deprioritized.” Eventually those areas will get frostbite and then gangrene and have to be cut off. This is what happens to certain sectors and geographic areas in the North. And when the regime has to start making decisions that begin deprioritizing elements of the military, we will soon see the loss of coherency in the military and loss of support for the regime. We need to keep a watchful eye for the indications and warning.
16. S. Korea seeks to request pre-departure COVID-19 tests for incoming USFK members
Yonhap News Agency · by Oh Seok-min · July 14, 2020
This should not be unexpected but will hardly reduce the problem if testing result wait times are still days and even more than a week in the US. Theoretically, you would need to take the test and immediately quarantine until the results are negative, then immediately deploy to Korea (and hope you do not get infected while in transit), and then quarantine for 14 days upon arrival. Perhaps there will be another stop movement order put in place because travel from the US is too high risk.
17. My quarantine experience on Yeongjong Island in South Korea
The National Interest · by Mitchell Blatt · July 13, 2020
First hand experience with the bureaucracy.
“Here’s the wicked paradox about terrorism. Long-term responses do nothing about short-term dangers. Short-term reactions feed extremism over long term.”
– Carmen Medina, former DDI, CIA, 19 NOV 2015
“The freedom to criticize ideas, any ideas – even if they are sincerely held beliefs – is one of the fundamental freedoms of society.”
– Rowan Atkinson
“And how we burned in the camps later, thinking: What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?… The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin’s thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt! If…if…We didn’t love freedom enough. And even more – we had no awareness of the real situation…. We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.”
– Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
