6/12/2020 News & Commentary – National Security
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore
1. The battle over U.S. troop withdrawals is just beginning
2. U.S. military commander says conditions aren’t yet right for complete withdrawal from Afghanistan
3. Perils of proxy wars In Afghanistan: a comparative study of the ISI of Pakistan and the IRGC of Iran
4. Twitter discloses propaganda campaigns tied to Russia, China
5. Twitter takes down Beijing-backed influence operation pushing coronavirus messages
6. The shape of Asia’s new Cold War
7. What U.S. withdrawal from the World Health Organization will mean
8. The fall of the American counterrevolution
9. Trump orders sanctions on international prosecutors for investigating alleged U.S. war crimes
10. Vectoring special operations for great power competition
11. US to pull troops from Germany, ex-ambassador Grenell confirms (and he admits POTUS wants more)
12. Divided we fall: the United States needs international partners now more than ever
13. ‘Show of force’: US aircraft carriers patrol South China Sea for first time in 3 years
14. Exploitative, transactional, coercive, cultural, and contractual: toward a better theory of proxy war
15. The United States, China and ‘the geography of the peace’
16. Could Donald Trump’s war against Huawei trigger a real war with China?
17. China has designs on democracy in Southeast Asia
1. Opinion | The battle over U.S. troop withdrawals is just beginning
The Washington Post · by Josh Rogin · June 11, 2020
We have to decide what we want (and need) in terms of forward stationing of forces. We need to eliminate the misguided belief that we have troops stationed in a country solely for the defense of that country. That leads to the misguided belief the country should pay for our services to defend them. This makes our alliances transactionally based rather than based on shared interests, shared values, and shared strategy based on common threats. This can and should include mutual defense but first and foremost forward stationing of US forces has to support US national security interests.
We need to forward base forces to provide us with strategic agility and flexibility to project power from these locations or support the projection of power from CONUS in support of our national security and national defense strategies.
We should also base forces on the capabilities and force structure necessary to support our strategies rather than the use of raw numbers or troop levels. These raw numbers do not adequately represent the forces structure and capabilities and lead to uninformed debates in the press.
We should scale the force structure up or down (within necessary constraints) based on continuous assessments of the conditions and our evolving strategic interests.
Lastly, we should forward station forces as a hedge against uncertainty. The only thing we can be certain of is that some day in the future we will need the right forces and capabilities to conduct operations somewhere in the world to protect US national interests.
All that said, it is appropriate to negotiate burden-sharing agreements based on mutual interests and shared strategy. These agreements need to be fair and equitable and based on the incremental costs (e.g., the costs above what is required for the force if it were based in CONUS). The agreement should also be based on any unique costs for stationing in a specific country. Such constructs as “cost plus 50%” or costs that include overlap with CONUS costs, or worse, that are above the CONUS costs should not be part of the negotiating strategy.
2. U.S. military commander says conditions aren’t yet right for complete withdrawal from Afghanistan
Yahoo News · by Sean D. Naylor · June 10, 2020
The cynic in me says the conditions will never be right. Military planners and commanders are worst-case planners. They will take every aspect of a negative assessment for preparation for withdrawal as a reason to not conduct the withdrawal. In these cases we rarely heed the adage that perfect is the enemy of good enough. We should long ago have asked what is the acceptable, durable, political arrangement that will support US national interests? Have we achieved that political arrangement? If we can define that, then we can assess if we have the necessary conditions for withdrawal.
Some would say we achieved this long ago. Others would say to guarantee such a condition would mean we would have to keep a permanent force in place to prevent an attack.
The buried lede: the Taliban is penetrated by COVID-19. I was unaware of that but now that I consider it, it makes sense.
3. Perils Of proxy wars in Afghanistan: a comparative study of the ISI of Pakistan and the IRGC of Iran
EurasiaReview · by Dr. Khushnam P N* · June 10, 2020
Proxy warfare is going to continue to be a staple of the revisionist and rogue powers. We need to understand it and be prepared to address it.
This is a view from India.
4. Twitter discloses propaganda campaigns tied to Russia, China
Bloomberg· by Alyza Sebenius · June 11, 2020
We must keep exposing the political warfare strategies of the revisionist and rogue powers. Information-based strategies supporting political warfare will remain the main effort in Great Power Competition even as we prepare for the worst-case conflict scenarios. And even if those worst-cases come to be realized, our adversaries will still be depending on information-based strategies to achieve success and consolidate gains. It is not all about the kinetic operations.
5. Twitter takes down Beijing-backed influence operation pushing coronavirus messages
Reuters · by Katie Paul · June 11, 2020
Again, let’s continue to expose their strategy. And as illustrated by this case, it cannot be the government in the lead. Private companies have to act responsibly for the public good. I do wonder about the network that State has detected and what has happened to it since the article notes these sites were supposedly not affiliated with that network.
6. The shape of Asia’s new Cold War
Project Syndicate· by Yoon Young-kwan · June 10, 2020
A Korean-view from our good friend, Professor Yoon Young-Kwan. This is useful analysis for US policy makers and strategists as well as an important critique of US positions and actions. Think about these words – to understand the nature of the coming conflict…
7. What U.S. withdrawal from the World Health Organization will mean
The Bulwark · by Shay Khatiri · June 11, 2020
Yes this is a strong critique of our administration and its policies. As I have said many times, I think it is a mistake to withdraw from the WHO. This is terrain on which we need to fight one of the many political warfare battles. We have to put the right people in these organizations who can fight our good fight.
8. The fall of the American counterrevolution
El Pais · by Bernard E. Harcourt · June 11, 2020
This is from the Spanish paper El Pais, but the author is an American professor at Columbia. I did not see this in any US media outlet (though I could have easily missed it as there are so many – but it came to one of my news feeds from El Pais). Although subheading focuses on President Trump, the author thinks that our militarization of the policy started back at least at the beginning of the war on terrorism. Since the author puts these in revolutionary, counter-revolutionary, and counterinsurgency terms, I think it might be useful for practitioners of small wars thinking.
What is “small wars thinking?” It is thinking about the human element in the full spectrum of competition and conflict up to and including conventional and nuclear war. It includes but is not limited to all aspects of lawlessness, subversion, insurgency, terrorism, political resistance, non-violent resistance, political violence, urban operations, stability operations, post-conflict operations, cyber operations, information and influence activities (e.g. information operations, public diplomacy, psychological operations, and military information support operations), working through, with and by indigenous forces and populations, irregular warfare, political warfare, economic warfare, alliances, diplomacy, and statecraft in all regions of the world.
9. Trump orders sanctions on international prosecutors for investigating alleged U.S. war crimes
Foreign Policy · by Robbie Gramer & Jack Detsch · June 11, 2020
A stronger response than I was expecting.
10. Vectoring special operations for great power competition
Diplomatic Courier · by Ethan Brown · June 4, 2020
While SOF will be an adjunct to the big kinetic fight if there is war among the great powers it plays a large role in Great Power Competition because the day-to-day competition will consist of irregular warfare, unconventional warfare, and political warfare.
Spoiler alert: the author thinks irregular warfare should be a domain. I know how that makes many people feel! He does not mention unconventional warfare or political warfare specifically.
But this is a contribution to the discussion.
11. US to pull troops from Germany, ex-ambassador Grenell confirms
Politico· by James Randerson · June 11, 2020
I suppose Mr. Grenell was giving his inside voice and articulating POTUS’s true intent here. This is strategic suicide. I believe it was May 2016 when candidate Trump said he wanted to remove all troops from Korea. And, of course, he made similar remarks two years ago in Singapore in his remarks after the Singapore summit when he announced the suspension of military exercises in Korea, saying they are too expensive and that he wanted to bring home US troops.
12. Divided we fall: the United States needs international partners now more than ever
WarOnTheRocks · by Rep. Don Bacon · June 12, 2020
Alliances are a key element of national power. I know all four instruments of national power are concerned with alliances and it is the diplomatic instrument that is responsible for managing them. However, I think alliances are so important to our national security and our concepts for projection of power and military operations that we should raise the concept of alliances to an element of US national power: “DIME-A” (diplomatic, informational, military, economic, and alliances).
13. ‘Show of force’: US aircraft carriers patrol South China Sea for first time in 3 years
NZ Herald · AP · June 12, 2020
We tend to use “show of force” often. Here is the DOD definition.
Show of force – An operation planned to demonstrate United States resolve that involves increased visibility of United States deployed forces in an attempt to defuse a specific situation that, if allowed to continue, may be detrimental to United States interests or national objectives. (JP 3-0)
14. Exploitative, transactional, coercive, cultural, and contractual: toward a better theory of proxy war
Modern War Institute · by Amos Fox · June 11, 2020
I give Major Fox credit for saying this: “proxy wars are today’s dominant form of war.” But he goes on to say it is hard to come by theories of proxy war and concludes that we need more literature focused on this type of warfare. I would have thought he would have discussed unconventional warfare, but he is an officer assigned to a Security Forces Assistance Brigade (SFAB) and UW does not fall under that organization’s purview.
And of course we rarely take Clausewitz seriously enough (“one country may support another’s cause, but it will never take it so seriously as it takes its own”). This is probably one of our strategic weaknesses.
15. The United States, China and ‘the geography of the peace’
RealClearDefense · by Francis P. Sempa · June 12, 2020
16. Could Donald Trump’s war against Huawei trigger a real war with China?
The National Interest · by Graham Allison · June 11, 2020
This is an ominous assessment.
17. China has designs on democracy in Southeast Asia
Foreign Affairs · by Sam Rainsy · June 10, 2020
This is the fundamental conflict – authoritarianism versus various forms of democracy. I listened to a speaker describe a theory of the Chinese challenge to democracy. Chinese nationals are settling in Cambodia and receiving Cambodian citizenship. They are settling in provinces in such numbers that they are becoming a majority voting block. Then they are using the democratic process to advance Chinese interests.
“Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself.”
– Leo Tolstoy
“Always remember, however sure you are that you could easily win, that there would not be a war if the other fellow did not think he also had a chance.”
– Winston Churchill
“I believe that our national security lies not just in protecting our borders, but in bridging divides.”
– Joe Lieberman
