Trump Versus Cartels: What could go wrong? What could go right?
Echoes of the Past: Could the U.S. Revisit Mexico with Military Force Against Cartels?
In 1916, General John “Black Jack” Pershing led U.S. forces deep into Mexico in a bold attempt to capture Pancho Villa. Over a century later, the echoes of this historic incursion reverberate in today’s political rhetoric, with President Donald Trump and other Republican leaders openly discussing the possibility of military action against Mexican cartels.
In this compelling new piece by Ioan Grillo, he explores the parallels between the 1916 Mexican Punitive Expedition and the current discourse surrounding cartel violence, U.S.-Mexico relations, and the potential for military intervention. Trump has repeatedly vowed to use military assets against cartels, calling them a threat to U.S. security, and even floated the idea of designating cartels as foreign terrorist organizations.
While some argue that these threats are political bluster, others point to concrete steps, like Rep. Dan Crenshaw’s pending “Authorization of Military Force” bill and Trump’s proposed appointment of a special forces veteran as ambassador to Mexico. These signals underscore a serious potential shift in U.S. strategy toward direct confrontation.
The article does not shy away from the complexity of the issue. While a show of military strength could pressure Mexico into action or foster cooperation, there’s a real risk of escalating violence without solving the deeper problems. Cartels are not monolithic entities—they’re sprawling networks intertwined with local communities and institutions. As history shows, even significant military efforts, such as the hunt for Villa, may display power but ultimately fail to dismantle entrenched systems.
