Are Mexican Cartels Terrorists? Why Understanding Resilience and Resistance in Mexico Matters

Introduction: Understanding the Resilience and Resistance of Mexico

“Are Mexican Cartels Terrorists? Why Understanding Resilience and Resistance in Mexico Matters”  by Dr. Robert Burrell, PhD. and Manuel Carranza, featured in Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, analyzes the intricate dynamics of resilience and resistance within Mexico, exploring how transnational criminal organizations (TCOs), particularly the Cártel de Sinaloa and Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG), undermine state authority and exacerbate instability. The authors argue that designating these cartels as foreign terrorist organizations could have profound and potentially harmful consequences for regional stability, affecting not only the Mexican political landscape but also U.S. efforts to combat synthetic opioid trafficking and manage undocumented migration.

Historical Context: The Legacy of Pancho Villa and U.S.-Mexico Relations

As we grapple with complex transnational threats, this deep dive into the enduring legacy of Pancho Villa and its implications for modern U.S.-Mexico relations reveals critical lessons for addressing irregular warfare today. In 1916, Pancho Villa’s raid into New Mexico and the subsequent U.S. military intervention symbolized the contentious nature of U.S.-Mexico relations—a blend of sovereignty challenges and cross-border dynamics. Fast-forward to 2025, and while the players and threats have evolved, the underlying tensions remain strikingly familiar.

Modern Threats: The Rise of Transnational Criminal Organizations and their Impact on U.S.-Mexico Relations

Today, the rise of transnational criminal organizations, the devastating impact of fentanyl trafficking, and the challenges of illegal migration are shaping U.S. foreign policy. Meanwhile, Mexico’s internal struggles—ranging from rampant corruption to the militarization of domestic security forces—complicate bilateral cooperation. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, facing immense domestic pressure, must balance stabilizing her nation with managing relations with the U.S., echoing the historical dilemmas of past leaders.

The newly established Guardia Nacional epitomizes this balancing act. Charged with combating cartels, patrolling borders, and upholding rule of law, it stands at the intersection of U.S. priorities and Mexico’s domestic agenda. However, plagued by corruption and operational challenges, its effectiveness remains in question.

Mexico’s Political Resilience: A Struggling Morena Party

According to this deep analysis, Mexico’s ruling Morena Party displays below-average resilience, a troubling indicator for a nation already under immense pressure from transnational criminal organizations. The Cártel de Sinaloa and Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación are the primary destabilizing forces, effectively disrupting, subverting, and coercing state authority. Meanwhile, resistance to centralized governance remains above average, exacerbated by external support from U.S. adversaries aiming to destabilize Mexico further.

U.S. Policy Dilemmas: Designating Cartels as Terrorist Organizations

For U.S. policymakers, these findings exhibit the precarious balancing act required to address shared challenges. The proposed designation of Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations may appear as a straightforward solution to address these issues. However, the authors argue that this approach risks irreparably damaging regional stability, potentially intensifying resistance within Mexico and destabilizing bilateral relations. The temptation to adopt unilateral measures to combat these threats is strong, but history cautions against such moves. Overreach could risk inflaming nationalist sentiments in Mexico, as seen with Villa’s enduring legacy as both a hero and a symbol of resistance against foreign intervention. Cooperation, rather than coercion, must define the bilateral approach, specifically focusing on shared objectives like economic growth and security while respecting Mexico’s sovereignty.

The Future of U.S.-Mexico Relations: Balancing Security and Sovereignty

A nuanced approach that strengthens resilience within Mexico while addressing the root causes of TCO power must take precedence. This could involve bolstering institutional capacity, enhancing bilateral cooperation, and integrating economic strategies to reduce the allure of cartel dominance. 

As the United States confronts these challenges, we must weigh the potential for unintended consequences that could ripple across the region. The resilience and resistance framework provides an essential lens to evaluate these dynamics and chart a path forward.

Ultimately, the U.S. and Mexico face urgent dilemmas. Will they build a partnership that addresses the challenges of irregular warfare collaboratively, or will they fall into the cycle of conflict that history warns against? Undoubtedly, the stakes have never been higher and the lessons of the past offer a roadmap for navigating this uncertain future.

Explore the full analysis and its implications for irregular warfare and regional stability. Click here to read.

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Here is the abstract:

Applying the resistance & resilience methodology to the Mexican landscape, finds the resiliency of the current Morena party below average, with the largest factors of instability in Mexico deriving from transnational criminal organizations, of which the Cártel de Sinaloa and Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación remain the most successful at disrupting, subverting, and coercing the state. Resistance to central authority remains slightly above average, while external support to resistance from American adversaries to destabilize Mexico remains a major threat. When exploring United States foreign policy options, the designation of Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations may do irreparable damage to regional stability, which in turn could lead to unintended consequences for undocumented migrants and the synthetic opioid trafficking in the United States.