Unpacking the Current India-Pakistan Crisis
India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed neighbors in South Asia, are on the brink of an open conflict yet again. The two countries have fought several wars since their independence from British colonial rule in 1947, with tensions frequently flaring up over the disputed region of Kashmir. Hostilities between the two countries have long been simmering, but rarely have military engagements gone beyond the de facto border that the two countries share in the disputed Kashmir region.
Now, however, the strategic calculus has shifted owing to India’s missile strikes inside Pakistan, in its heartland. For the first time in decades, India has significantly expanded the geographic and operational scope of its military operations against Pakistan.
India has struck deep inside Pakistan after over half a century. The 1971 full-scale war between the two sides was the last occasion when this happened. Conducting strikes deep inside mainland Pakistan marks an alarming departure from the longstanding pattern of restricting military engagements primarily to the Kashmir region, where neither country has de jure jurisdiction. Also, it is unprecedented since 1971 that India has reportedly used all three forces against Pakistan—the army, navy, and air force.
By extending the theatre of military confrontation beyond the traditional flashpoint of Kashmir and by employing all military instruments, India has effectively redefined the rules of military engagement with Pakistan. It has demonstrated that it is willing and capable of carrying out swift yet extensive conventional military action not only along the border region in the disputed Kashmir region but also potentially anywhere inside the internationally recognized Pakistani territory.
It is too early to ascertain whether India can establish escalation dominance, especially considering a potential, if not imminent, response by Pakistan. Nevertheless, by climbing up the escalation ladder, India has already crossed a previous, dangerous threshold that it had established in 2019 when it conducted swift airstrikes inside Pakistani territory adjacent to Kashmir. But the new escalation perilously flirts with the escalation spiral. If such an escalation spiral comes into play, the only question will be who blinks first, or when the retaliatory tit-for-tat cycle degenerates into a full-fledged war with nuclear risks.
About the Strikes and Possible Fallout
On 6 May 2025, India carried out coordinated missile strikes targeting nine sites deep inside Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Claiming that terrorist bases and hideouts inside Pakistan were hit, New Delhi has framed the operation as a counter-terrorism response to last month’s deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir. India had blamed Pakistan for the Kashmir attack that killed over two dozen innocent people. Islamabad, for its part, denies any involvement.
India claims that 24 strikes were conducted in total, killing 70 people. Pakistan claims that it shot down five Indian fighter jets during the engagement. Though Pakistan’s claim remains unverified, The New York Times has reported, citing officials, local media reports, and witnesses, that at least two Indian jets were downed. Reuters puts the figure at three.
The reported shooting down of 2-3 fighter jets is in line with Pakistan’s assertions that India has received heavy losses. But it is not guaranteed that Pakistan’s claims of inflicting heavy damage on the Indian side will dissuade it from responding to the Indian strikes by unleashing a counter-offense of its own. If anything, the downing of Indian aircraft did not preclude it from achieving its objectives, nor can it credibly deter India from launching similar strikes against Pakistan in the future.
There are strong indications that Pakistan is already contemplating a tit-for-tat response to Indian airstrikes. Declaring India’s strikes “acts of war”, Pakistan has authorized its military to launch a counter-offensive to target India. The country’s National Security Committee (NSC) has issued a strong-worded statement, asserting that Pakistan would respond “at a time, place, and manner of its choosing.” This portends a possible new round of escalation—one initiated by Pakistan.
The next couple of days, and even hours, could be critical. Based on the latest developments, including Pakistan’s NSC statement, one must assume that the probability of Islamabad responding with force is high. If the response comes, it will likely be proportionate at a minimum. It can involve a combination of advanced missile systems and fighter aircraft. Whether India chooses to respond to Pakistan’s anticipated counterstrikes remains uncertain. Much depends on the nature of Pakistan’s retaliation and how New Delhi might assess Islamabad’s response in terms of its scale and impact.
Regarding the possibility of retaliatory Pakistani action and a further escalation by India, a lot will depend on the robustness of international diplomacy and pressure exerted by major powers. World leaders are calling upon India and Pakistan to exercise restraint. The international community realizes that tensions between the two countries can spiral out of control, undermining not only regional but also global peace and security.
A Dangerous Escalation Ladder
The current crisis between India and Pakistan has not emerged in a vacuum. It unfolds against the backdrop of a steady erosion of longstanding war thresholds that, for decades, prevented the conflict between the two sides from escalating beyond certain red lines. These red lines were gradually redrawn in recent years, as India explored ways to punish Pakistan for what it saw as its involvement in cross-border terrorism.
Indian policymakers have been studying the prospects of punitive strikes inside Pakistan for years. They were first conceived, then put to play, and finally scaled up. In the wake of the infamous 2008 Mumbai terror attacks, called India’s 9/11, New Delhi started contemplating airstrikes against Pakistan as a concrete punitive measure against Islamabad’s alleged role in major terrorist attacks in India. The punitive action was operationalized in 2019 when India claimed to have carried out airstrikes inside Pakistan in retaliation for a terror attack in Kashmir that killed 40 Indian troops.
The 2019 Indian airstrikes were carried out not too far from the de facto Kashmir border between India and Pakistan. Plus, they were largely symbolic, as no high-value targets were apparently hit. However, last night’s missile strikes are conspicuously different. The latest strikes are not only carried out deep inside Pakistan but have also caused many casualties on Pakistani soil. This ratcheting up is part of a doctrine to systematically expand the scope of India’s retaliation against the alleged abetment of terrorism by Pakistan. Every time there is a major terror attack that India blames on Islamabad, the severity of the punishment inflicted on Pakistan will potentially be higher. This way, India wants to send Pakistan a clear message: the next time we hold you responsible for terror, the punishment will be more severe than before. For this to consummate, India has to keep pushing red lines and establishing new normals vis-à-vis Pakistan. Nevertheless, such a doctrine is replete with uncontrollable escalation risks.
The escalation risks are high because believing that Pakistan will stay put for long is unrealistic. Pakistan is unlikely to keep accepting new and dangerous precedents set by India. At some point, now or later, it will feel compelled to respond with force not only to assert its territorial sovereignty and project power but also to restore the credibility of its deterrence, hence ensuring its survival prospects. This is where it gets dangerous. Each successive action by India and Pakistan redefines what is deemed “normal” military engagement, pushing both sides further up the escalation ladder.
Conclusion
The ongoing crisis between India and Pakistan constitutes a new chapter in their perennial rivalry. By flouting decades-preserved geographic and operational war thresholds, India and Pakistan are playing with fire.
Specific red lines that previously made the two nations exercise restraint are now being redrawn. As India and Pakistan demonstrate a growing willingness to use military power, the chances of bilateral escalation are rapidly rising. Such an escalation is too risky – it can lead to a full-scale war and even a nuclear clash, putting global peace in jeopardy.
Thus, both sides need to understand the stakes and risks involved in the situation. The world must also nudge Islamabad and New Delhi to reaffirm their commitment to strategic restraint. Without restraint, anything can happen at any time.
