To prevent Iran’s nuclear breakout, Trump must confront a messy reality: diplomacy
To prevent Iran’s nuclear breakout, Trump must confront a messy reality: diplomacy
March 25, 2025
Below is a short survey of this piece published by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.
Read the full article linked in the title for a deep dive.
This article by Amy J. Nelson examines the complex diplomatic challenges surrounding Iran’s nuclear program, focusing on the Trump administration’s approach to preventing nuclear proliferation. At its core, the piece critiques the United States’ current negotiation strategy, arguing that absolutist tactics and a desire for immediate “wins” undermine effective long-term diplomatic engagement.
Nelson highlights the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as a nuanced diplomatic achievement that temporarily constrained Iran’s nuclear capabilities through strategic compromise. The United States’ 2018 withdrawal from this agreement created significant diplomatic tension, weakening trust and reducing negotiation leverage. The article emphasizes that Iran’s nuclear centrifuges continue operating, bringing the country closer to potential nuclear weapon capacity.
The analysis warns that the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign and insistence on comprehensive, immediate concessions are counterproductive. Nelson argues for a more patient, incremental approach to arms control negotiations—one that recognizes diplomatic progress as a gradual process requiring flexibility, compromise, and a sophisticated understanding of international relations beyond simplistic “winner-takes-all” frameworks.
Author Biography
Amy J. Nelson is a senior fellow with the Future Security Program at New America, where she works on generating future-forward policy analysis using tools and techniques of prediction and planning with a particular focus on nuclear and artificial intelligence futures. Previously, Nelson was a David M. Rubenstein fellow in the Foreign Policy program and with the Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology at the Brookings Institution and a Robert Bosch fellow in residence at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, Germany.
