07/02/2021 News & Commentary – National Security
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
1. Full text of Xi Jinping’s speech on the CCP’s 100th anniversary
2. IMF: United States of America Concluding Statement of the 2021 Article IV Mission
3. Remembering My Boss, Donald Rumsfeld
4. How Rumsfeld Deserves to Be Remembered
5. Naval Special Warfare Completes Transformative Leader Assessment Program Pilots
6. Lawmaker Wants to Grill Officers on Critical Race Theory Before Approving Promotions
7. ‘Black Hawk Down’ Veterans to Receive 58 Silver Stars
8. IntelBrief: The Role of Local Police in the New U.S Strategy on Countering Domestic Terrorism
9. Terrorists become increasingly ‘innovative’, in a world shaken by COVID-19
10. Release of the 2021 Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) Report
11. The Free World vs. China and Friends: It’s ideology, stupid
12. The People We’re Leaving Behind in Afghanistan
13. Iranian Disinformation Effort Went Small to Stay Under Big Tech’s Radar
14. Biden’s lack of ambassador picks leaves him on a pace that’s trailing Trump
15. Worried about ‘wokeness’? There’s a lot more to be outraged about in the US military
16. Will America Defend Taiwan? Here’s What History Says
17. What Terrorism Will Look Like in the Near Future
18. US-UK Warn Of New Worldwide Russian Cyberespionage
19. Is the military teaching critical race theory? Not really
20. AllStances™: Critical Race Theory: Perspectives, Pro Con, Arguments, For And Against, Critical Race Theory, CRT, Race And Racism, Racism, Anti-Racism, Race
21. Japanese official warns US of potential surprise attack on Hawaii — from Russia and China
22. U.S. Leaves Largest Afghan Base as Full Withdrawal Nears
23. Satellite Photos Show China Expanding Its Mysterious Desert Airfield
24. Opinion | The Chinese Communist Party’s anniversary is Hong Kong’s funeral
25. Back to the Future: Resetting Special Operations Forces for Great Power Competition
1. Full text of Xi Jinping’s speech on the CCP’s 100th anniversary
2. IMF: United States of America Concluding Statement of the 2021 Article IV Mission
IMF · July 1, 2021
Some very interesting data and analysis.
3. Remembering My Boss, Donald Rumsfeld
Daily Signal · by Steven Bucci
There is a lot of negative commentary with the passing of Secretary Rumsfeld. Here is a different perspective. I never met the man so I cannot judge.
Conclusion: “The bottom line is this: Reasonable people can disagree about the policy choices made by the George W. Bush administration in general, and by Rumsfeld in particular, but this man, forever known to me as simply The Boss, was a man of integrity, character, leadership, and real grit. Time does not allow for a full obit here; I will leave that to others. The man I knew, the man who shepherded the American military through the 9/11 attacks, the man dubbed the American Secretary of War for his strength and service to our nation, will never be forgotten.
He was the embodiment of the “Man in the Arena” to whom President Teddy Roosevelt referred in his famous remarks at the Sorbonne in 1910. He lived, fought, and passed with a quiet power that his critics cannot match.
Rest in peace, Boss. It was an honor to serve beside you.
4. How Rumsfeld Deserves to Be Remembered
The Atlantic · by George Packer · July 1, 2021
And another perspective on Secretary Rumsfeld.
Conclusion: “By the time Rumsfeld was fired, in November 2006, the U.S., instead of securing peace in one country, was losing wars in two, largely because of actions and decisions taken by Rumsfeld himself. As soon as he was gone, the disaster in Iraq began to turn around, at least briefly, with a surge of 30,000 troops, a policy change that Rumsfeld had adamantly opposed. But it was too late. Perhaps it was too late by the early afternoon of September 11.
Rumsfeld had intelligence, wit, dash, and endless faith in himself. Unlike McNamara, he never expressed a quiver of regret. He must have died in the secure knowledge that he had been right all along.
5. Naval Special Warfare Completes Transformative Leader Assessment Program Pilots
This looks like a good program.
Excerpts: “We place emphasis on superior leadership as our principal asymmetric advantage over the nation’s adversaries and embrace the mission imperative to evolve the ways we assess the character, cognitive and leadership attributes within the force,” said Rear Adm. H. W. Howard III, commander, Naval Special Warfare Command. “We recently accelerated the development of the NLAP pilot to rapidly experiment with an approach that increases officer and enlisted selection precision, development opportunities, and leader pairing decisions – and addresses cognitive biases that can adversely impact selection decisions.”
This round of NLAP pilots consisted of four separate convenings with two in Little Creek, Virginia and two in Coronado. Naval Special Warfare Center, which has been charged with running the assessment program, screened over 90 participants eligible for either executive officer or command master chief positions. In the future, the four-day process held on the premises will apply to all levels of leadership from major command to O-5 command as well as tactical level commanders and senior enlisted advisors.
6. Lawmaker Wants to Grill Officers on Critical Race Theory Before Approving Promotions
defenseone.com · by Jacqueline Feldscher
Sigh….I have a lot more faith in all our military personnel – from General/Admiral to Private/Airman/Seaman. I am not at all afraid of them being exposed to all ideas and theories. If we are afraid that they are going to be indoctrinated by the “wrong” ideas then we certainly do not respect their intellectual abilities or trust them as fellow Americans. This line of reasoning says we basically do not trust our military personnel to think critically and objectively 9f they do not think along the ideas that are “approved.”) If Senator Cotton wants to go back to the old way and focus on our oath, ideals, and Constitution then he should start with the ideal that we do not ban ideas just because they do comport with someone’s worldview.
By including this type of training, Cotton said, military schools are becoming too similar to civilian graduate schools.
“Every minute they dedicate to some critical race theory primer could have been…better dedicated to…studying Chinese military doctrine, things that we actually expect and need our military to know,” Cotton said.
Cotton, who served in Iraq as an Army infantry officer, argued that equality training should go back to how it was when he was in uniform.
“Most of my buddies who contact me feel they just want to know why we can’t just go back to what we all took an oath to, our founding principles…or for that matter why these training sessions can’t just replay Martin Luther King’s dream speech that we should all be judged by the content of our character, not the color of our skin?”
7. ‘Black Hawk Down’ Veterans to Receive 58 Silver Stars
defenseone.com · by Caitlin M. Kenney
That seems to be a very high number of Silver Stars but I have no doubt each one is deserved.
8. IntelBrief: The Role of Local Police in the New U.S Strategy on Countering Domestic Terrorism
thesoufancenter.org · June 29, 2021
Excerpt: “Further compounding this challenge is the reality that there exists within American policing the same domestic threat that this new national strategy seeks to address: armed white supremacists misusing patriotic trappings, and groups such as the Three Percenters or the Oath Keepers. Discussing this issue openly and honestly remains arduous. Making matters more difficult, local police departments are always struggling with staffing issues to manage the staggering level of 911 emergency calls for services (most of which are not crime-related, but that still require a police response). Some departments will argue that the strategy is simply adding another priority to an overloaded list. However, it can be argued that the more positive progress is made on the non-law enforcement side of the National Strategy for Countering Domestic Terrorism, the less need there will be for law enforcement action. Until such progress is made, a significant need for local law enforcement involvement remains; many of the threat groups and actors are well-armed and present a real security threat. Moreover, building strong relationships with communities based on trust will be a critical component in ensuring that local law enforcement is well positioned to work closely with communities, local business, and federal partners. There is nothing easy or simple about countering this domestic threat; the task is as complicated as it is urgent.
9. Terrorists become increasingly ‘innovative’, in a world shaken by COVID-19
news.un.org · June 30, 2021
2+ minute video at the link.
Conclusion: “As the Organization readies itself to mark the 15th anniversary of the UN Global Counter-terrorism Strategy to enhance national, regional and international efforts, the UN official said, “we should take comfort that this Counter-Terrorism Week has reinvigorated support for multilateralism”.
He described some “path-breaking” outcomes to be included in an upcoming resolution, which included countering the use of new technologies for terrorist purposes; tackling attacks based on racism and other forms of intolerance; and repatriating, reintegrating and rehabilitating children with links to foreign terrorist fighters.
In closing, Mr. Voronkov reassured the Member States of the UN’s “leadership and to support” and looked forward to the first Global Congress of Victims of Terrorism scheduled for December, and for the third UN Counter-Terrorism Week in June 2023.
10. Release of the 2021 Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) Report
state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken
The 43 page USG Women, Peace, and Security Congressional report report can be downloaded here.
11. The Free World vs. China and Friends: It’s ideology, stupid
atlanticcouncil.org · by Kaush Arha · July 1, 2021
My graphic on the ideological conflict.
Excerpts: “It is important that this war of ideas be framed as a clash between the founding principles of the US government and the CCP—not their citizens. American and Chinese people have enjoyed a long and rich history of mutual benefit and respect, and that should endure. US ideals and security enabled China’s rise to be its global rival. But the goals of Xi and the CCP do not tolerate—let alone enable—any competition. That is the crux of the ideological war.
It is in the realm of ideology where China is most brittle and vulnerable—and the United States strongest and most resilient. By its own admission, in fact, the greatest threat to the Chinese Communist Party is ideology. The CCP abhors chaos and does all it can to erase it, while the resilient character of democracy shines in chaos. The democratic institutions of the Free World have been tested fiercely and found resilient. The last US president was impeached twice in one term and voted out of office. And on January 6, in the face of a rowdy mob, US legislators returned to the Capitol in the middle of the night to certify the election. In the battle of ideas, the United States is stronger because it leads by the will of the people against the state coercion of China.
The best ideological antidote to “socialism with Chinese characteristics” is democracies with Asian characteristics. It is the marvel of Indian democracy, the resolve of Taiwan, the strength of Japan and South Korea, the soundness of Australia and New Zealand, and the aspirations of movements and leaders in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Central Asia. And an expanded G10 gives new voice to these Asian democracies. There are no greater soldiers of democracy than the brave students of Tiananmen Square and Hong Kong, who were inspired by US ideals. To be worthy of their inspiration and its own founding principles, the United States should stand tall as democracy’s guardian.
12. The People We’re Leaving Behind in Afghanistan
The New Yorker · by Condé Nast · June 29, 2021
The human domain.
Excerpts: “President Biden has now pledged a large package of security assistance and humanitarian aid to the Kabul government. But recent Taliban advances, spreading fear, and deteriorating security forecasts have touched off what looks like a downward spiral, in which vital noncombat American support on the ground, such as contractors who maintain Afghan aircraft, will pull out alongside U.S. soldiers. Last week in Washington, Ghani said that his job now is to “manage the consequences” of the U.S. withdrawal—a technocrat’s description of an existential struggle that seems, for now, to be running against him.
Akbar told me that she is not “anti-withdrawal; I’m all for it,” but that the way the Biden Administration announced its decision—linking it to the anniversary of September 11th, for example—showed “very little consideration about the impact on a very fragile peace process” and on the Afghan population. Her greatest fear is “all-out war,” such as that which engulfed the country during the nineteen-nineties, a conflict laced with mass killings, rape, and other atrocities.
“There’s little reflection on failures and America’s role in these failures,” Akbar said. “That’s frustrating to watch. We are being left with a huge mess. We are being told to deal with it mostly on our own. Of course, it’s our responsibility. It’s our country. But it’s not a mess we created on our own.”
13. Iranian Disinformation Effort Went Small to Stay Under Big Tech’s Radar
The New York Times · by Sheera Frenkel · June 30, 2021
Excerpts: “U.S. intelligence agencies are concerned that the same could be happening in the United States. Last week, the Justice Department said it was blocking access to three dozen websites linked to disinformation efforts by Iran. A U.S. intelligence official told The Times that the authorities were closely monitoring messaging groups on Telegram, WhatsApp and other apps for Iranian disinformation.
The apps are an ideal means for Iran to enter a closed group of people with similar viewpoints and spread divisive and extremist messages, said the intelligence official, who was not authorized to give interviews and spoke on the condition of anonymity. They were sharing memes, for example, that likened Mr. Netanyahu to Adolf Hitler — an offensive comparison that could prod some people into more extreme views and make others think their online groups had become too extreme.
“In these closed messaging groups, people tend to trust one another and share more freely because there is a feeling that they share the same politics, and that the app itself is secure and safe,” said Gonen Ben Itzhak, an Israeli lawyer who once worked for Israel’s Shin Bet intelligence agency. He was among dozens of Israelis who said the Iranian efforts had targeted them.
The people who unknowingly communicated with the Iranians said the pandemic and upheaval in Israeli politics had made them especially vulnerable to the disinformation.
14. Biden’s lack of ambassador picks leaves him on a pace that’s trailing Trump
pennlive.com · by Tribune News Service · July 2, 2021
Excerpts: “It’s too slow,” said Eric Rubin, president of the American Foreign Service Association, the diplomatic corps’ union. “It’s true that every administration has challenges, but this is the administration that comes after Trump, and there’s really an urgency in terms of undoing damage that was done.”
Measured by ambassadors who have been nominated to individual countries, not institutions such as NATO or United Nations bodies, Biden trails Trump at this point in his presidency, according to the Partnership for Public Service, which tracks such appointments. As of June 30 in their administrations, former President Barack Obama had nominated 40 ambassadors, Bill Clinton 26 and Trump 19. Biden has nominated just 14.
Biden’s team argues that Trump left him in an impossible position, for many reasons: Trump’s refusal to concede the election and the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol slowed the transition, as did turmoil from the coronavirus response. He has put more emphasis on diversity than speed — leading all presidents in the number of female nominees of color as of his first 100 days, for example.
The White House and State Department declined to comment. But officials familiar with the administration’s thinking say that in this era of hyper-partisanship in Washington, Biden wants to make sure his nominees face no uncomfortable surprises in their nomination hearings.
15. Worried about ‘wokeness’? There’s a lot more to be outraged about in the US military
taskandpurpose.com · by Paul Szoldra, James Clark, Jeff Schogol, and Haley Britzky · June 30, 2021
Quite a laundry list of challenges within our military beyond the false crisis of wokeness.
Conclusion: “While members of Congress — and the army of talk show hosts and social media personalities filling up the airways and your newsfeed — are well within their rights to pound their desks over what books people may or may not be reading, or opine at length about the changes individual military branches are making to be more inclusive, the real question is: Is any of that worth your time, and outrage, compared to all of the above?
Perhaps we should refocus our collective attention on trying to tackle the real and tangible problems that are destroying careers, ruining troops’ lives and, in many cases, actually impeding the military’s ability to fight effectively.
16. Will America Defend Taiwan? Here’s What History Says
hoover.org · by Ian Easton · June 30, 2021
Excerpts: “To date, there is no known case in which an American president failed to send forces to support the defense of Taiwan in response to a credible CCP threat. If this track record is indicative of future performance, the years ahead are likely to see the U.S. government continually improve its operational readiness to defend Taiwan in accordance with the evolving threat picture. In times of crisis, American leaders will likely send overwhelming national resources to the Taiwan Strait area and make their commitments to Taiwan’s defense more explicit in hopes of convincing the PRC to deescalate tensions.
Even barring a major political-military crisis, it seems probable that the years ahead will see the U.S. government improve its early-warning intelligence via regular ship, submarine, and aircraft patrols of the Taiwan Strait; more frequent overhead passes of space and near-space platforms; and expanded intelligence sharing arrangements with the Taiwanese security services. It also seems probable that the U.S. will make significant enhancements to its diplomatic, trade, intelligence, and military presence in Taiwan.
It remains an open question whether a Taiwan Patrol Force and MAAG-like organization will be reestablished—let alone an official country-to-country relationship and defensive alliance. But each could be considered past examples of political and military initiatives that, when combined, were successful in helping to deter CCP aggression. Herein we might find positive lessons for the future.
17. What Terrorism Will Look Like in the Near Future
newlinesinstitute.org · by Colin Clarke · June 29, 2021
Excerpts: “The United States has been attempting to pivot away from counterterrorism as an organizing principle as it prepares to meet the challenges of great-power competition. But counterterrorism and great-power competition are not mutually exclusive. Indeed, in many cases, a convergence between the two will further complicate the response and may also lead to an increase in state-sponsored terrorism, a throwback to the proxy conflicts waged during the Cold War.
To head off violent ideologies or support for terrorist groups before they metastasize, and to formulate adequate prevention policies, the United States should heed the lessons observed from local contexts in foreign states. Chief among these lessons is taking note of early indications and warnings of racism, sectarianism, or other forms of discrimination against specific societal groups. Issues like salad bar ideologies do not comport with neat analytic frameworks. Concepts like fringe fluidity mean that it is entirely possible, and increasingly more common, for violent extremists to reconcile aspects of two competing ideologies, like neo-Nazism and militant Islamism.
For counterterrorism analysts, it is crucial to step outside of analytic comfort zones. This requires questioning long-held assumptions and avoiding groupthink that too often plagues intelligence community assessments. Of course, this requires deep knowledge of how terrorist groups train, recruit, and operate. But it also requires intellectual curiosity, an understanding that ideology can be malleable, and the ability to identify trend lines before they become fault lines.
18. US-UK Warn Of New Worldwide Russian Cyberespionage
breakingdefense.com · by Brad D. Williams · July 1, 2021
Excerpts: “The advisory notes that the threat actors are using encrypted traffic via the Tor network and virtual private networks (VPNs) to conceal activities, including data exfiltration. They are also using techniques to “live off the land,” a term that means malicious actors use legitimate tools that don’t alert security experts to conceal activities on a victim’s network.
The advisory then provides some mitigation guidance — most of which Breaking Defense readers know: Use strong account passwords, enable multifactor authentication wherever possible, apply access controls to include account time-out/lock-out, patch software, and implement zero-trust security principles as broadly as possible across networks.
19. Is the military teaching critical race theory? Not really
militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers, Leo Shane III · July 1, 2021
I did not think so.
20. AllStances™: Critical Race Theory: Perspectives, Pro Con, Arguments, For And Against, Critical Race Theory, CRT, Race And Racism, Racism, Anti-Racism, Race
Allsides · March 16, 2021
Probably, the most balanced discussion of critical race theory I have read. But we should expect that from the AllSides website.
21. Japanese official warns US of potential surprise attack on Hawaii — from Russia and China
Washington Examiner · June 30, 2021
There would appear to be some irony in this headline.
22. U.S. Leaves Largest Afghan Base as Full Withdrawal Nears
The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff · July 2, 2021
23. Satellite Photos Show China Expanding Its Mysterious Desert Airfield
NPR · by Geoff Brumfiel · July 1, 2021
A Chinese “Area 51?”
24. Opinion | The Chinese Communist Party’s anniversary is Hong Kong’s funeral
The Washington Post · by Josh Rogin · July 1, 2021
Is Taiwan next?
Excerpts: “What we should learn from Hong Kong is that Xi Jinping does exactly what he says he will do,” said Dan Blumenthal, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “He succeeded in Hong Kong with impunity and he’s talking the same way about Taiwan now. We ought to take him seriously.”
…
The lesson of the last century was that appeasing aggressive, repressive, expansionist, nationalist, totalitarian dictatorships is more dangerous than confronting them. This July 1 is a stark reminder that we should believe Xi Jinping when he threatens to attack and undermine freedom and democracy — and then we must do more to push back, in Hong Kong, in Taiwan and in our own country.
25. Back to the Future: Resetting Special Operations Forces for Great Power Competition
mwi.usma.edu · by Kyle Atwell · July 2, 2021
The 47 minute podcast can be accessed here.
I have not listened to it yet but I will later today.
—————–
“When God puts his hands on a man, I take my hands off.”
– Sen Thomas Hart Benton (1782-1858)
“We got a mountain to move.”
– General Paul J. LaCamera, UNC/CFC/USFK Commander, 2 July 2021, Change of Command
“Paymasters come in only two sizes:one sort shows you where the book says that you can’t have what you’ve got coming to yo; he second sort digs through the book until he finds a paragraph that lets you have what you need even if you don’t rate it.”
– Robert Heinlein – The Door into Summer
