10/15/2020 News & Commentary – Korea
News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. Joint Communique of the 52nd U.S.-Republic of Korea Security Consultative Meeting
2. U.N. rights official urges easing of North Korea sanctions over coronavirus strain
3. U.N. rapporteur urges N.K. to punish those responsible for killing of S. Korean citizen at sea
4. U.S. Leans on Korea Not to Use Chinese Telecom Equipment
5. Friction between allies is evident at defense meeting
6. RQ-4 Global Hawk 4 arrived in S. Korea last month
7. China’s arrogance and hegemonism attacking BTS
8. S. Korea’s national security adviser in U.S. on unannounced visit
9. What Trump got right – and wrong – with North Korea, explained by a former intel official
10. Kim Jong Un orders remodeling of major hotels in Pyongyang
11. N.K. establishes university named after leader Kim
12. North Korean man investigated for industrial espionage
13. In his chess match with North Korea, Trump is clearly losing
14. North Korea’s nuclear, missile programs ‘serious threat’ to security
15. Human rights groups call for U.N. resolution to include N. Korea’s killing of S. Korean citizen
16. Ten Years After Debut, North Korea’s Kim Celebrates Nuclear Accomplishments – and Acknowledges Hardships
17. N. Korea upgrades surface-to-air weapons: Air Force chief
18. ‘We wasted a lot of time’: John Bolton says North Korea is ‘more dangerous now’
19. North Korea’s New Monster ICBM: Just How Deadly?
20. Esper says equitable burden-sharing necessary for ‘stable stationing’ of U.S. troops
21. IMF Revises Korea Growth Forecast Upwards
1. Joint Communique of the 52nd U.S.-Republic of Korea Security Consultative Meeting
Here is an issue someone flagged for me. Are we moving THAAD to Camp Carroll? Excerpt: “The two leaders committed to make a long-term plan to establish the conditions for the stable stationing of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery at Camp Carroll as part of this commitment. The two leaders also pledged to explore jointly measures to enhance the Alliance deterrence posture and implement the Tailored Deterrence Strategy while considering the effects of changes in the security environment on the Peninsula and in the region.”
The Korean version of the Joint Communique does not mention Camp Carroll. I wonder why that is. What other differences are there in the two statements? Omitting Camp Carroll is not a simple translation error. Perhaps Camp Carroll was used simply as a reference point for the US side since most Americans are not familiar with the location of the battery on a former Lotte golf course!
My thought is the statement may have been intended to mean the conditions for stable stationing of THAAD include routine logistics support for the battery that comes from Camp Carroll and the ROK side would ensure the logistics support is not hindered by the protestors who continue to block the access road to the battery. But if we are moving THAAD to Camp Carroll that is a significant change and I certainly did not see that coming.
2. U.N. rights official urges easing of North Korea sanctions over coronavirus strain
Reuters · by Josh Smith · October 15, 2020
With all due respect to Mr. Quintana, he received the message that Kim Jong-un intended -lift sanctions to help the suffering Korean people living in the north. But he missed the actual truth. Kim Jong-un has made the deliberate policy decision to build nuclear weapons and missiles and modernize his military at the expense of the welfare of the Korean people living in the north. Sanctions are not harming the Korean people. Kim Jong-un’s policy choices are. Please do not be duped by Kim Jong-un. The second message intended for us is that sanctions have failed because he has modernized his military despite them therefore we should lift them. The action we should take is to recommit to aggressive enforcement of sanctions to prevent the continued modernization and support to the military and the regime.
3. U.N. rapporteur urges N.K. to punish those responsible for killing of S. Korean citizen at sea
en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · October 15, 2020
How does Kim punish himself and the members of the Kim family regime as they are responsible for the brutal murder of the South Korean civil servant? The soldiers who committed the murder should not be scapegoated because doing so will let Kim Jong-un off the hook. I hope we do not end up seeing a show trial and public execution. I doubt that will happen since based on reports the soldiers have already been rewarded for their “heroic” actions.
4. U.S. Leans on Korea Not to Use Chinese Telecom Equipment
english.chosun.com – 15 October 2020
Note: “The Korean government said it will consider the request and reminded the U.S. that the issue involves private businesses.”
It is interesting the Koreans would use the “private business” excuse since the ROK government has historically been deeply engaged in influencing private business. The “Miracle on the Han” is partially a result of government management of and support to certain industrial sectors.
One of the issues about this is security of the military alliance. If the ROK military adopts C4I systems that depend on equipment from these “private businesses” it could be a security risk for the ROK and US military.
5. Friction between allies is evident at defense meeting
Not a good sign. I hope the Joongang Ilbo is reading more into this though the cancellation of a joint press event could be a negative indicator.
This is the key issue from the Korean side: “Such reluctance from Washington has amplified suspicions in South Korea that the United States may have changed its mind about returning OPCON altogether, in light of growing security threats in the region stemming from a nuclear-armed North Korea and an aggressive China.”
I think the US still supports and desires the OPCON TRANSITION (I correctly used the Korean term of “transfer” in my first message on the SCM joint communique – it is a transition of OPCON to a Korean general officer in command of the ROK/US CFC – it is not a transfer of OPCON from Washington to Seoul. But it believes that the conditions must be met because those conditions are critical to the security of the ROK and alliance forces. I do not think the US wants to back out of the agreement (and especially not over China). I believe the US is standing firm on conditions-based transition because that is the way the security of the ROK is ensured. If Moon administration politics is allowed to dominate it will not only damage the alliance it will put South Korea at risk from the north.
6. RQ-4 Global Hawk 4 arrived in S. Korea last month
donga.com – by Eun-Taek Lee – 15 October 2020
Good for the alliance and the ROK military.
7. China’s arrogance and hegemonism attacking BTS
donga.com – 14 October 2020
I spoke about this on the John Batchelor Show last evening (as well as the ROK Ambassador’s comments on the alliance for the future) (link to the program here: https://audioboom.com/posts/7706069-south-korea-doesn-t-have-to-remain-allied-with-the-us-reinterpreted-davidmaxwell161-gordo).
My point was it was appropriate for BTS to honor ROK and US soldiers for defending freedom. We should always remember that Kim Il Sung deliberately attacked the South and the Chinese People’s Volunteers intervened to aid and support the aggressor. The responsibility for deaths of some 5 million people lies with Kim Il Sung and China is complicit in those deaths. So, China deserves no honor, respect, or recognition for its actions in the Korean War, especially not from Korean citizens like BTS.
8. S. Korea’s national security adviser in U.S. on unannounced visit
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 15, 2020
Yes, I did not know he was visiting.
9. What Trump got right – and wrong – with North Korea, explained by a former intel official
Vox · by Alex Ward · October 14, 2020
From the former National Intelligence Officer for Korea. Some very interesting insights. Quote: “Garlauskas laid out a game plan for whoever occupies the White House next year: Get North Korea to stop testing missiles and nuclear bombs, and then develop a policy to convince Pyongyang to part with its weapons. Halting those tests will give the US the space to develop the right mix of pressure and persuasion. “Otherwise you’re just reacting to them – and then you’re in another really, really tough spot,” Garlauskas said.”
I really agree with the point that we are always reacting, and no administration has really seized the initiative. Yes, President Trump’s unconventional, experimental, top-down, pen-pal diplomacy was an attempt to seize the initiative but so far it has not been sufficient to move Kim Jong-un. This is likely because Kim Jong-un has not and will likely not ever give his strategy to dominate the peninsula through subversion, coercion/extortion (blackmail diplomacy) and use of force. Either Kim gives up that strategy or we must focus on the underlying problem on the peninsula, the “Korea question.”
10. Kim Jong Un orders remodeling of major hotels in Pyongyang
dailynk.com – Jeong Tae Joo – October 13, 2020
Priorities. Deliberate policy decisions by Kim Jong-un. Another action that denies resources to the Korean people in the north (I doubt any of the rooms will be used by any Koreans from throughout the country.
11. N.K. establishes university named after leader Kim
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · October 14, 2020
Another important action that will do nothing to help the suffering of the Korean people in the north.
12. North Korean man investigated for industrial espionage
dailynk.com – by Kim Yoo Jin – October 14, 2020
I did not know north Korea-style cosmetics were a state secret.
13. In his chess match with North Korea, Trump is clearly losing
msnbc.com · by Steve Benen · October 14, 2020
The chess match (or Go or Paduk) is not over. We have to play our long game to Kim’s long con.
14. North Korea’s nuclear, missile programs ‘serious threat’ to security
Reuters · by Reuters Staff · October 15, 2020
Even though the new missiles have not been tested or have proven operational capability we have to take them seriously but testing these will also significantly raise tensions. Whether these are real missiles or mock-ups they are also likely a key part of the regime’s negotiating strategy.
15. Human rights groups call for U.N. resolution to include N. Korea’s killing of S. Korean citizen
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · October 15, 2020
A UN Security Council resolution would likely be vetoed by China or Russia. But we need to exert pressure on the regime for its human rights abuses in every forum and in any manner possible.
16. Ten Years After Debut, North Korea’s Kim Celebrates Nuclear Accomplishments – and Acknowledges Hardships
The National Interest · by Jean H. Lee · October 14, 2020
Jean Lee was in Pyongyang for a number of years to witness the hardships and changes.
17. N. Korea upgrades surface-to-air weapons: Air Force chief
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · October 15, 2020
One of the very first targets if the north re-initiates hostilities and attacks the South will be the regime’s integrated air defense system so we can gain immediate air superiority.
18. ‘We wasted a lot of time’: John Bolton says North Korea is ‘more dangerous now’
Washington Examiner · by Zachary Halaschak · October 14, 2020
19. North Korea’s New Monster ICBM: Just How Deadly?
The National Interest · by Malcolm Davis · October 14, 2020
Yes, it is a threat, but we cannot know how effective until we see it tested.
But here is the buried lede from this article: “Of course, these developments can’t be viewed in isolation from the broader US-China strategic competition. Beijing ultimately wants US forces out of northeast Asia and getting US forces off the Korean peninsula would be a first step in that process, a goal that naturally aligns with Kim’s interests. A Kim who could use his more capable nuclear weapons to provide leverage to act in ways Beijing doesn’t control wouldn’t be good news for Chinese leader Xi Jinping, however.”
20. Esper says equitable burden-sharing necessary for ‘stable stationing’ of U.S. troops
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 15, 2020
Has anyone clearly described what is equitable? As a good friend from Korea mentioned to me perhaps, we describe the SMA process all wrong. It is not about sharing a burden. It is not a burden that we are protecting and advancing our mutual interests and our mutual national security. These are the costs of national security for both nations and we should consider the funding as a commitment to security and not as a burden. It is a necessity.
21. IMF Revises Korea Growth Forecast Upwards
Some good news for Korea.
“He who controls the past, controls the future. He who controls the present controls the past.”
-George Orwell
“A complete and generous education fits a man to perform justly, skillfully and magnanimously all the offices of peace and war.”
– John Milton
“Your surviving spy must be a man of keen intellect although in outward appearance a fool; of shabby exterior but with a will of iron. He must be active, robust, endowed with physical strength and courage, thoroughly accustomed to all sorts of dirty work; able to endure hunger and cold and to put up with shame and ignominy.”
-Sun Tzu, The Art of War