06/22/2020 News & Commentary – Korea
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Pyongyang’s threats towards Washington
2. Ex-USFK commander urges readiness amid N. Korea’s growing threats
3. N. Korea preparing to send 12 mln leaflets to S. Korea via 3,000 balloons
4. North threatens U.S., as border balloon battle intensifies
5. Cheong Wa Dae says much of Bolton’s memoir on Korea ‘distorted’
6. N. Korea’s decision to redeploy troops decided on last month
7. Why Rising Tensions on the Korean Peninsula Are Unlikely to Recede
8. N. Korea preparing military parade for party anniversary: defense ministry
9. N. Korea reinstalling propaganda loudspeakers along border: military officials
10. Kim Yo Jong and the “Party Center”
11. Cheong Wa Dae says much of Bolton’s memoir on Korea ‘distorted,’ urges U.S. gov’t to address such ‘dangerous’ case
12. Newly assigned American service member tests positive for coronavirus; total at 36
13. S. Korea, US show rift in dealing with North Korea
14. ‘Seoul could re-impose strict social distancing’
15. Former combined forces No. 2 defends 2018 military pact with North
16. NK’s liaison office demolition not in breach of military pact with South: minister
1. Pyongyang’s threats towards Washington
donga.com by Young-Sik Kim June. 22, 2020
It has started. But this is not unexpected. There is only one response to this and it must be demonstration of alliance strength and resolve. Now is not the time to go wobbly. The pressure is on Kim Jong-un for his failures. The only thing he knows to is execute the decades old blackmail diplomacy., raise extensions and conduct provocations to gain political and economic concessions.
2. Ex-USFK commander urges readiness amid N. Korea’s growing threats
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · June 22, 2020
We need to pay attention to commanders like General Tilelli. He has been through this and knows how the alliance must respond whether it is to provocation, conflict, or regime collapse. It is all about readiness for the full spectrum of contingencies. What is happening today with rhetoric and threats is not unusual and not new though of course the press, pundits, and politicos tend to think what happens in north Korea is happening for the first time.
3. N. Korea preparing to send 12 mln leaflets to S. Korea via 3,000 balloons
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 22, 2020
I think the north may be mirror imaging. Balloons and leaflets are no threat to the South. But the regime is threatened by the South’s leaflets. If I were advising the South I would have the Korean people in the South collect the leaflets, read them, and then conduct public interviews so they can critique the information from the north, expose the lies and distortions and then broadcast those interviews back in the north to undermine the regime and its propaganda efforts.
But I doubt the regime is really going to send 3000 balloons to the South. (though like Sun Tzu we cannot assume the regime won’t do, we must be prepared).
4. North threatens U.S., as border balloon battle intensifies
We should be prepared for some longer ranger missile tests and perhaps a satellite launch in the coming weeks or months. If Kim does not see any potential change from the ROK or the US it may conduct an October surprise, and obvious one being a nuclear test or an ICBM test. Kim will have by then calculated he is not going to get sanctions relief and will be willing to roll the dice thinking his actions will cause Trump to lose. He will likely believe a new US administration will want to diffuse tensions right away and he will try to exploit that. Whomever wins in November must stay the course and not give into any regime demands.
5. Cheong Wa Dae says much of Bolton’s memoir on Korea ‘distorted’
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · June 22, 2020
We should expect the Blue House to discount Bolton’s accounts.
6. N. Korea’s decision to redeploy troops decided on last month
dailynk.com · by Jang Seul Gi · June 22, 2020
While these actions may have been a surprise to us I think if we step back and assess the events of the past 6 months or even going back to Hanoi in February 2019 I think we can see the regime’s deliberate and long term planning pattern. And I think this is going to play out right up the November election.
7. Why Rising Tensions on the Korean Peninsula Are Unlikely to Recede
The National Interest · by L Gordon Flake · June 21, 2020
That is right. The Regime desires recognition as a nuclear power.
Gordon Flake is right and makes some important points: It is about sanctions relief, recognition as a nuclear power (and regime actions since Hanoi support that idea), and the north has not been immune to the coronavirus. The regime is doing what it knows best as it is a one trick pony: blackmail diplomacy.
My assessment:
Kim Family Regime Strategy
* Vital Interest: Survival of the Kim Family Regime
* Strategic Aim: Unification of the Peninsula
* Subversion, coercion, extortion, use of force
* Key Condition: Split the ROK/US Alliance
* US forces off the Peninsula
* “Divide and Conquer” – Divide the Alliance and conquer the ROK
* Desire: Recognition as nuclear power – negotiate SALT/START
* Nuclear weapons key to deterrence – Hwang Jong Yop
* nK believes US will not attack a nation with nuclear weapons
8. N. Korea preparing military parade for party anniversary: defense ministry
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 22, 2020
A good sign. The nKPA cannot prep for a parade, execute the fall harvest, and attack the South (though it is very likely to conduct provocations learning up to the election).
9. N. Korea reinstalling propaganda loudspeakers along border: military officials
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 22, 2020
Again, more mirror imaging by the north. Do they really think these will have an effect on the South? This is another indicator of how much the regime fears information. And of course this is another clear message that the north rejects the Comprehensive Military Agreement which is intended as an insulting message to President Moon. I do not wish this on the soldiers of the DMZ (and the poor villagers of Taesongdong). I had to listen to the loudspeaker war between the north-and South for 3 years when I was stationed on the DMZ in the 1980s.
10. Kim Yo Jong and the “Party Center”
dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · June 22, 2020
Is Kim Yo-jong being groomed for succession or not? This is a useful essay on the use of the term “party center.” But according to the source in this article there is not domestic effort to prepare the information environment for her succession and the author assesses she is not being groomed for succession at this time. The most important point in the article is that the decisions she is supposedly making are all approved by Kim Jong-un. He likely remains in full control.
11. Cheong Wa Dae says much of Bolton’s memoir on Korea ‘distorted,’ urges U.S. gov’t to address such ‘dangerous’ case
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · June 22, 2020
Yes, Bolton’s book will cause further friction in the alliance.
12. Newly assigned American service member tests positive for coronavirus; total at 36
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 22, 2020
USFK has set a very positive standard for dealing with the coronavirus.
13. S. Korea, US show rift in dealing with North Korea
The Korea Times · June 22, 2020
Kim must be enjoying this. This is exactly what he wants. This is one of the most important lines of effort to support his strategy to dominate the peninsula under this rule: “divide to conquer” – divide the ROK/US alliance to conquer the ROK. One of the things his father and grandfather always tried to do is deal directly with the US to marginalize the South. Nothing has changed. Bolton’s book contributes to the regime’s measure of effectiveness assessment as it illustrates the rift and the “revelations” in book itself can further exacerbate the rift.
14. ‘Seoul could re-impose strict social distancing’
The Korea Times · June 22, 2020
Lessons can and must be learned. And the real test of South Korea’s abilities is how it deals with these outbreaks. We should remember that South Korea never looked down but rather employed sound public health practices to include social distancing.
15. Former combined forces No. 2 defends 2018 military pact with North
koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-Young · June 22, 2020
It has been a one way agreement. South Korea and the Alliance implemented the confidence and trust building measures in good faith. The north did not other than “demilitarized” the JSA/Panmunjom and destroy and vacate guard posts in the DMZ. The alliance has limited training (ti include live fire training) in the fortonline areas and established no fly zones in the forward areas which impact both readiness as well as intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance operations. Yes it is one of President Moon’s signature achievements but the north has never fully lived up to its side of the agreement (as an example, the interpretation by supporters of the agreement is that the 21+ missile and rocket tests over the past year do not violate the agreement).
16. NK’s liaison office demolition not in breach of military pact with South: minister
koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · June 22, 2020
Maybe not the letter but surely the spirit. I am sure there is some international law or at least norms and standards this is in violation of. At least good taste and decorum. You do not blow up someone’s $15 million building even if it is on your own territory.
But what this does is encourage more such actions by the north. I am sure we will soon see the ROK constructed tourist buildings blown up at Kumgangsan. Kim reads this and says all is well. My blackmail diplomacy is working.
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Without a doubt, psychological warfare has proven its right to a place of dignity in our military arsenal.”
– Dwight D. Eisenhower
“You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”
– Buckminster Fuller
“A clever person solves a problem. A wise person avoids it.”
– Albert Einstein
