06/19/2020 News & Commentary – Korea
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.
1. South Korea-US working group’s role in question amid growing inter-Korean tensions
2. Low-Yield Bombs ‘Could Destroy All N.Korea’s Nuke Facilities’
3. More F-35 Stealth Fighters are Headed to South Korea
4. N.Korea overused Explosives to blow up Liaison Office
5. Why North Korea Took a Stick of Dynamite to Inter-Korean Detente
6. Trump is wrecking South Korea’s relationship with North Korea
7. Can S.Korea hold N.Korea accountable for Demolition?
8. North Korea’s strategy to grab America’s attention with explosive displays
9. Meet Kim Jong Un’s enforcer, his kid sister
10. Commentary: Trump’s transactional approach is eroding global alliances
11. South’s unification minister resigns as Korean tensions rise
12. S. Korea, US should resume joint drills: Ex-US commander
13. North Korea’s Kim stokes tensions with eye on distracted Trump
14. Singaporean on FBI’s most wanted list charged with falsifying invoices to conceal trade with North Korea
15. North Korean state hackers reportedly planning COVID-19 phishing campaign targeting 5M across six nations
16. North Korean bluster masks military weakness
17. South Korea President’s support slides amid North Korea tension
18. In memoir, Bolton says nuclear diplomacy with N. Korea was S. Korea’s ‘creation’
1. South Korea-US working group’s role in question amid growing inter-Korean tensions
The Korea Times · June 18, 2020
I received this query from a Korean journalist. I asked for the sources of criticism and he sent me this Korea Times article below. He asked me this question:
Amid deteriorating inter-Korean relations, a South Korea-U.S. working group is taking flak for hampering progress in bilateral ties due to its excessively harsh standards adopted on North Korea.
Critics say unlike its initial goal of coordinating policy on the North, the group is obsessed with whether Seoul-driven initiatives to engage with Pyongyang violate economic sanctions on the reclusive state, with some even calling for its breakup.
Q. Can you comment on this criticism and the ideal role of U.S-South Korea working group to deal with the latest development in Korean peninsula as well as North Korea’s actions?
I provided the following response:
I think the criticism is misplaced. First from reports I have heard from government officials in both the US and South Korea is that this has proven to be a very effective organization for coordinating strategy.
I can only imagine the pundits who have been making these criticisms have never worked on policy and strategy between two countries. They must be what we call in the U.S. “armchair quarterbacks.”
But what is really troubling is the criticism I have read in the Korea Times and the Hankyoreh Ilbo have been from critics parroting the remarks of Kim Yo-jong. This is deeply troubling and harmful to the alliance. There are critics who side with north Korea over the ROK/US alliance. The citizens of South Korean should be very concerned about that.
It is my understanding that this organization has been instrumental in ensuring there is transparency in the positions of both counties, and it has been very effective in resolving differences. The US side has gone to the UN to advocate for South Korean engagement activities and has supported securing sanctions waivers.
To the specific criticism of the US trying to obstruct South Korean engagement I think the critics are mistaken and uninformed. There are sanctions in effect and everyone must abide by the sanctions or suffer the political and financial consequences. If the US reminds their counterparts of this, it can hardly be called the US obstructing ROK efforts. Again, it is my understanding the US has been supportive of all ROK engagement efforts that do not violate sanctions. However, the only real obstruction to President Moon’s peace strategy has been north Korea and Kim Jong-un. There are engagement activities the US supported that were not implemented because of Kim Jong-un’s decision making. He has been the obstructionist at every turn.
Lastly what the critics are really saying is they want the US to lift sanctions so there can be free and open engagement with the North. This is based on the mistaken assumption that if the ROK and US give concessions to the North they will negotiate and denuclearize. This is pure fantasy and one the most erroneous assumptions that could be made.
Lastly these critics who want sanctions relief need to be asked. What North Korean behavior do they condone? By calling for the lifting of sanctions means they advocate for Kim Jong-un to continue the development and testing of nuclear weapons and missiles, continued global illicit activities, continue cyber-attacks against South Korea and other countries around the world, and continued weapons proliferation to rogue nations. And lastly, they are condoning the use of North Korean slave labor around the world and the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north.
These critics would rather allow north Korea to be a rogue regime and persist in being an existential threat to South Korea and all the Korean people on the Korean peninsula. They are focusing on one of the most effect ROK/US organizations, the strategy working group, rather than the real problem that is north Korea that seeks to dominate and rule the entire peninsula. From this goal the regime has never wavered and falling to understand that puts South Korea at great risk. We should never forget the root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
And again, let me say that every Korean and US official I have spoken to has said the strategy working is key to coordinating policy, strategy, and activities and they have nothing but praise for it.
2. Low-Yield Bombs ‘Could Destroy All N.Korea’s Nuke Facilities’
english.chosun.com · by Cho Yi-jun · June 18, 2020
Hmmm… “surgical” nuclear strikes? I would be interested in hearing analysis from actual practitioners and targeters.
But it is good timing to talk about this and hopefully Kim Jong-un realizes we have multiple options to destroy his nuclear program and his regime.
3. More F-35 Stealth Fighters are Headed to South Korea
The National Interest · by Peter Suciu · June 18, 2020
Good to make this announcement now. Deterrence and defense. Kim Jong-un (and hopefully Kim Yo-jong) fears this aircraft because it can penetrate his air defenses and attack leadership targets. This is why he has developed the rockets and missile systems over the past years to target not only the US bases of Camp Humphreys and Osan but also the ROK F-35 base of Cheongju (as KCNA called them last summary the “fat target.”
4. N.Korea overused Explosives to blow up Liaison Office
english.chosun.com · by Yang Seung-sik · June 18, 2020
Sounds like they learned the Special Forces Engineer Sergeant equation for demolition: P=Plenty or “p is for plenty.” If a little is good a lot is better.
5. Why North Korea Took a Stick of Dynamite to Inter-Korean Détente
The National Interest · by Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi · June 18, 2020
As the author writes, North Korea actions are certainly heartbreaking and humiliating for the progressive government of Moon Jae-in. But I truly hope they serve as a wake-up call for him and that he will be willing to admit his assumptions were wrong and that he will now pursue a Plan B. And if this week has not been a wake-up call then just wait a bit and the north will conduct more provocations in coming weeks and months.
6. Trump is wrecking South Korea’s relationship with North Korea
The National Interest · by Khang Vu · June 18, 2020
NO. Stop the madness. It is Kim Jong-un (and Kim Yo-jong) who is wrecking the relationship with the South.
This is another article that takes an appeasement position. It is an absolutely false assumption to believer that by lifting sanctions the North will come to the negotiating table to denuclearize the North. If we lift sanctions what will happen is that we will see continued plays from the north’s blackmail diplomacy plays because the regime will have confirmed that their plays continue to work. We will simply see more demands and increased tensions and provocations to gain political and economic concessions.
But for all the advocates for lifting sanctions I will again ask what behavior of the regime do you wish to condone?
Nuclear and missile development and tests?
Proliferation of weapons, etc., to rogue nations?
Global illicit activities (counterfeiting, methamphetamines trafficking, etc)
Cyber attacks?
Overseas slave labor?
Human rights abuses and crimes against humanity against the Korean people living in the north?
Kim could easily get sanctions relief. All he has to do is comply with the requirements of the sanctions which is simply to stop doing all of the above. But I am sure I will win the lottery before Kim does that.
7. Can S.Korea hold N.Korea accountable for Demolition?
english.chosun.com · June 18, 2020
It will probably be heard in the same court that South Korea should be suing China for the Wuhan coronavirus.
8. North Korea’s strategy to grab America’s attention with explosive displays
Forbes · by Mark L. Clifford · June 18, 2020
This is certainly one plausible explanation. Kim does not like to be neglected or ignored. But I think it is possible that Kim has multiple objectives, and this might just be one of them.
9. Meet Kim Jong Un’s enforcer, his kid sister
NBC News · June 18, 2020
She is quite the dragon lady. It certainly is possible she is being groomed for succession. But if Kim is not incapacitated, she is not acting on her own. Everything statement and action is still approved by Kim Jong-un. The system is designed for one man (or woman) rule. If she is acting on her own that must mean Kim is incapacitated. But we can only speculate as no one can no one can know for sure as Kim’s health is surely a state secret.
10. Commentary: Trump’s transactional approach is eroding global alliances
Chicago Tribune · by Ivo Daalder · June 18, 2020
I am afraid as good as his advisors are they are just not going to change his worldview. From the outside it appears he is more concerned with maintaining an alliance balance sheet than focusing on the strategic value to protecting US national interests. I would say the threats of troop withdrawal are merely negotiating tactics, but we should remember that in May of 2016 he made a campaign promise to bring home the troops from Korea. He repeated this later in Singapore with a timing caveat.
11. South’s unification minister resigns as Korean tensions rise
The Washington Post · by Kim Tong-Hyung
Again, I may disagree with many of the policies of the MOU and I think the actions of the Minister in the face Kim Yo-jong’s threats to the escapees/defectors because of their information operations were morally and strategically wrong, resigning now over North Korean actions simply tells Kim Jong-un his subversion line of effort it is working. While we tend to focus on subversion as a covert action, it can be an overt effort as much of the work of the United Front Department is.
Subversion: The undermining of the power and authority of an established system or institution.
As in: “the ruthless subversion of democracy”
12. S. Korea, US should resume joint drills: Ex-US commander
The Korea Herald · by Choi Si-young · June 19, 2020
I hope the government conducts itself with restraint and does not allow any harm these
13. North Korea’s Kim stokes tensions with eye on distracted Trump
Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin · June 19, 2020
Kim does not like being neglected or ignored. He is mad at trump since trump reaped political benefits (the so-called foreign policy win of no nuclear weapons and ICBM testing) but Kim received no political benefits in return (e.g., sanctions relief).
Some counsel to ignore him and ignore Kim Yo-jong’s acting out. Yes, we should never play into his hands during these periods of increased tensions and provocations (blackmail diplomacy). But there are always two things we should do and not do. First is we have to demonstrate strength and resolve and that is shown in the strength of the ROK/US alliance and further through robust military exercises. (And in addition, we need to overcome the declining readiness due to the cancelation, postponement, and modification of the exercise program). The second thing is that we cannot ever give into North Korean demands for concessions. The most important thing we have done in the past two years is to not lift sanctions. Yes, Kim is evading them to a larger and larger extent with the help of China and Russian. But the lifting of sanctions would provide Kim the political benefit of accomplishing the objective to manipulate Moon and Trump. His failure to get sanctions relief is a domestic political failure and this is causing enormous pressure on the regime. Kim made the strategic error of raising expectations that he would get sanctions relief and again he has failed to do so. In short, demonstrate alliance strength and do not give into regime demands.
14. Singaporean on FBI’s most wanted list charged with falsifying invoices to conceal trade with North Korea
channelnewsasia.com · June 19, 2020
Drip, drip drip. Small victories. I am sure Justice and Treasury have a long list of organizations and people who are helping the regime to evade sanctions.
15. North Korean state hackers reportedly planning COVID-19 phishing campaign targeting 5M across six nations
ZDNet · by Eileen Yu · June 19, 2020
This seems like quite a threat. Are we ready? The first step to being ready is to expose the strategy which it seems we are doing. I wonder why the target date is June 21 on a Sunday? And of course, the fact that we have this “intelligence” should be a cautionary note because the regime is a master of denial and deception. What might they really be planning if they are distracting us with this threat? But we still have to be ready for this one as we are all vulnerable to phishing.
16. North Korean bluster masks military weakness
asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · June 17, 2020
Perhaps. If so, the South and Alliance response should show that Kim again miscalculates and misunderstands. The alliance should become stronger in the face of the threats. That is what the north does – use the “threat” of the South and the alliance to justify the sacrifices the Korean people in the North must make for national defense. I do not understand why Kim does not understand that his actions could do the same in the South. He is probably reading the tea leaves and assuming that President Moon’s peace strategy is the dominant thinking in the South and that the Moon administration will simply try to appease him to keep the South’s strategy intact. Hopefully this is a wake up call for President Moon.
And yes, the nKPA is weak force with obsolete equipment and a thin logistics capability that cannot sustain offensive operations for any length of time. That said, quantity has a quality all its own and the 4th largest army in the world can inflict a lot of damage and because the peninsula lies at the nexus of the 2d and 3 d largest economies and the two nuclear powers and one rogue state with nuclear weapons what happens on the peninsula (war or instability and regime collapse will have global effects. Therefore ‘job one” remains deterrence. We must deter and attack while being prepared to deal with other contingencies. As Sun Tzu said, never assume the enemy will not attack. Make yourself invincible.
17. South Korea President’s support slides amid North Korea tension
Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · June 19, 2020
This is probably the most important factor that could cause President Moon to shift to a Plan B. But he has built his administration and preparing his legacy based on his peace strategy. But 55% is still pretty good for an approval rating.
18. In memoir, Bolton says nuclear diplomacy with N. Korea was S. Korea’s ‘creation’
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · June 19, 2020
Our Korean allies will parse every aspect of Bolton’s book concerning Korea. It will be interesting to see how they spin some of the revelations.
A South Korean “creation?” That is a new interpretation to me.
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“The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right; the spirit of liberty is the spirit which seeks to understand the minds of other men and women; the spirit of liberty is the spirit which weighs their interests alongside its own without bias . . .”
– Judge Learned Hand
“Hearts are the strongest when they beat in response to noble ideals.”
– OSS veteran & Nobel Laureate Ralph Bunche
“It ain’t the things you don’t know that will get you in trouble. It’s the things you know for sure that just ain’t so.”
– Mark Twain
