An Unmanned No-Fly Zone is Possible
An Unmanned No-Fly Zone is Possible
by Luke Tarbi
As calls for a no-fly zone over Libya increase, US defense planners cite concerns over future scale and cost as cause for trepidation. And rightly so — most no-fly zone estimates are based on US experiences over Iraq, and show the need for over one hundred fighter jets, as well as a command and control element, an airborne refueling capability, and a means to rescue potentially downed pilots. These costs can add up; it is estimated that one year of Operation Northern Watch and Operation Southern Watch over Iraq cost US taxpayers between $1.4 and $1.7 billion dollars.
However, the US experience imposing no-fly zones over Iraq throughout the 1990s may not present the most accurate benchmark in terms of future scale and cost. Advances in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology combined with innovative uses of existing Navy air defense systems could allow for the potential unmanning of a no-fly zone, lowering risks to pilots and reducing costs to taxpayers. Moreover, significant geographical differences between Iraq and Libya mean that a future no-fly zone could not only be unmanned, but also implemented with fewer military assets. While the initial destruction of the Libyan air defense network would require precision strikes against grounded aircraft and surface-to-air missile sites, a potential unmanned no-fly zone could be maintained for the duration of the Libyan conflict through a combination of UAVs circling and defending locations from above, and Aegis-capable Navy ships assuming anti-air duties along the coastline.
The first half of this concept relies on the Air Force’s new MQ-9 Reaper UAV, a larger and more powerful version of the famous Predator drone. Originally designed for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Reaper is a combat proven platform that offers a potential anti-air capability (it can carry the AIM-92 Stinger missile). Powered by a 950 horsepower turboprop engine, the Reaper is slow by jet standards at 230 miles per hour, but as a result of being lightweight can boast a total range of over 3,600 miles and an endurance time of 14 hours when fully loaded (for a range reference, potential air bases on Sicily and Crete are both under 300 miles from the Libyan coast). Additionally, the Reaper’s slow speed could prove invaluable when countering slower and lower-flying Libyan attack helicopters, whereas faster fighter jets may have more difficulty in targeting them.
The potential for air-to-air combat between a UAV and manned aircraft is not without precedent. In December 2002, a smaller Predator drone engaged an Iraqi MiG-25 while performing a reconnaissance mission. Though its Stinger missile missed and the Predator was shot down, it is noteworthy that the slower UAV was still able to get its shot off in time. The larger Reaper UAV can carry more Stinger missiles than the Predator, or could potentially carry a longer-range (and thus heavier) air-to-air weapon too. Additionally, because the Reaper would be circling above cities in a defensive role it would also be afforded a longer time period for target acquisition. However, while the Reaper could offer a defensive presence in the sky, it could not enforce an unmanned no-fly zone by itself.
The second half of this concept relies on the Navy’s Aegis Combat System, the preeminent anti-air weapons system installed on every cruiser and destroyer in the US surface fleet. Originally conceived of during the Cold War, the use of Aegis nowadays is predominately to provide air defense for a nearby aircraft carrier by countering any hostile aircraft or inbound missiles. However, both its powerful AN/SPY-1 radar and SM-2 surface-to-air missiles have ranges of well over 100 miles, a distance that could extend an air defense shield over the majority of large cities and population centers in Libya.
When comparing no-fly zones in Iraq and Libya, the vast differences in their coastline length and coastal population density mean that the surface Navy could play a much larger role in enforcement duties. The State Department estimates that over ninety percent of the Libyan population lives in less than ten percent of its landmass; the majority of these people are clustered along the country’s northern coast. The positioning of several Aegis-capable warships along the Libyan coastline could quickly extend an air defense shield over these populations. This in combination with Reaper UAVs circling overhead could create a credible deterrent threat to Libyan pilots, a safer strategy for US servicemen, and a less expensive option for Pentagon policymakers.
The advantage of an unmanned no-fly zone is that it increases safety by taking pilots out of potentially dangerous skies, and it lowers costs by reducing the role of expensive fighter jets, aircraft carriers, airborne refueling planes, and search-and-rescue helicopters. However, this concept has significant disadvantages as well. Taking pilots out of the sky also eliminates human intuition and judgment in potential air engagements. The USS Vincennes, an Aegis cruiser, once shot down an Iranian airliner its crew mistook for a fighter jet on radar, and UAV pilots are no more likely to be effective judges of hostile intent from their remote cockpits and video feeds. With the chances of a Libyan pilot defecting still as high as the chances he attacks, the concept of an unmanned no-fly zone presents as many risks as it does rewards. However, with the potential for substantial savings in terms of lives and money, it is well worth the consideration.
Luke Tarbi is currently a Masters candidate in international relations at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
