A Clear and Sober Assessment on Afghanistan
03.15.2011 at 11:11pm
A Clear and Sober Assessment on Afghanistan by Max Boot at Commentary. BLUF: “Overall, despite inevitable setbacks and continuing challenges, I’d say that the counterinsurgency campaign – which began in earnest only in the fall of 2010 – is going about as well as can be expected right now.”
How do we define momentum? I’ve searched for this definition for over a month and found nothing.
How do we measure momentum, to determine if it has been reversed?
Given the retreat from the Peche, the failure to link far-flung villages and hamlets to the central government and the failure of any Taliban elements to lay down arms I can’t begin to imagine we have any initiative or momentum in Afghanistan.
Having read and admired the works of both Max Boot and Bing West, I just cannot avoid concluding that one of them, in this case the former, is pretty far off the mark.
Another positive development is the growth in size and effectiveness of the Afghan National Security Forces, especially the army. As Petraeus noted, “[T]he past year alone has seen Afghan forces grow by over one-third, adding some 70,000 soldiers and police.”
Size- yes. Effectiveness?? Not sure how they are measuring that- but returning BDE and BN level leaders that I’ve heard from don’t agree with “growth” in effectiveness.
The issue, perhaps, is two-fold: effectiveness is very hard to measure and the only true way to guage their effectiveness is through an independent assessment from outside of ISAF. Unfortunately for ISAF: NTM-A is biased and IJC’s partnered units would be blamed for a failed relationship if they reported low effectiveness…