COIN in Absurdistan
COIN in Absurdistan
Saving the COIN Baby from the Afghan Bathwater (and Vice-Versa)
by Dr. Tony Corn
Download the full article: Saving the COIN Baby from the Afghan Bathwater
When General Petraeus guided the elaboration of the new counterinsurgency field manual FM-3-24 in 2006, the main theater of operations happened to be Iraq, and the main operational priority was to analytically discriminate between global and local grievances in order to strategically disaggregate the transnational Jihadist from the “accidental guerrilla” whose space happens to be invaded. Given the urgency of the situation, there was no time to reflect on the “Grievance vs. Greed” debate that had been at the center of the civilian literature on civil wars in the previous decade. As a result, the COIN doctrine enshrined in FM 3-24 is as long on Grievance as it is short on Greed.
But while the Grievance paradigm was by and large adequate to understand the situation in Iraq five years ago, the Greed paradigm is more relevant in the case of Afghanistan – a country that has had a war economy since 1979, where warlordism and poppy cultivation play a central role, and which has achieved the dubious distinction of being the second most corrupt country in the world.
Add to that the “resource curse” represented by the massive U.S presence: beginning with Bush’s quiet surge of September 2008, a series of military surges increasing the number of troops by more than 50,000 (plus an equal number of contractors) has been partly responsible for a fifty percent increase of corruption in the past two years.
Today, a good case could be made that the political divergences (Grievance) that once existed between the main protagonists (Kabul officials, regional warlords, Taliban of all stripes, not to mention Pakistani officials) have taken a backseat, and that a convergence of sorts has begun to emerge on a shared economic objective (Greed): milking the American cow for all it’s worth, and for as long as possible.
Download the full article: Saving the COIN Baby from the Afghan Bathwater
Dr. Tony Corn is on leave from the State Department and currently writing a book on the Long War. This essay is a follow-up to two previous articles: “The Art of Declaring Victory and Going Home: Strategic Communication and the Management of Expectations,” Small Wars Journal, September 2009, and “Toward a Kilcullen-Biden Plan?: Bounding Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan,” Small Wars Journal, October 2009. The opinions expressed here are the author’s own and do not reflect the view of the U.S. State Department or the U.S. Government.
