India’s military modernization
Yesterday I attended a conference at the American Enterprise Institute that discussed the Indian government’s plans to modernize its military forces. This subject has very large implications for the strategic balance in Asia and the India Ocean, and bears heavily on U.S. diplomatic and military strategies and the strategies of others in the region.
Key points from the conference:
1. Major Indian military challenges/strategies
a. “Cold start” (near-zero mobilization time) punitive limited ground offensive into Pakistan. Why a “cold start”? Fear of Pakistan nuclear missile attack into Indian mobilization bases.
b. Defense of India’s extreme northeast against a surprise Chinese ground attack from Tibet (much of the India-China border remains in dispute). Challenges: lack of strategic warning, logistics support/reinforcement through the narrow “chicken neck” near Nepal.
c. Naval campaign in Bay of Bengal against Chinese naval forces, which might in the future have access to naval bases in Burma, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.
d. Domestic Maoist insurgency which Indian police may not be able to contain.
e. Strategic nuclear balance between Pakistan and India could become unstable due to increased warhead count on both sides, increased missile quantity and accuracy, better ISR, and arrival of missile defenses.
2. Problems with Indian military modernization
a. Indian officer corps is highly professional, but
b. India’s top civilian leadership has given minimal strategic guidance/grand strategy to the general staff.
c. India’s parliament doesn’t know and doesn’t care about strategic or military issues.
d. India’s civilian defense bureaucracy is no better.
e. Military acquisition programs lack any strategic coordination and are not tied to any doctrine or planning. Corruption in acquisition system is a major problem.
f. Indian military staff thinking seems stuck in the 1985 AirLand Battle concept, with little consideration given to indirect strategies, irregular warfare, hybrid techniques, cyber/electronic attack, etc.
3. Bottom line: Indian military modernization is a big story in Asia. India is far behind China both in capacity and its modernization effort. India needs deep political and bureaucratic reform before it will be able to adequately address the challenges and implement the strategies described in point #1.
