Why Hezbollah is Laying Low
01.07.2009 at 12:29pm
Tom Ricks and Andrew Exum asked the question and David Kenner at FP Passport throws in:
… Because he isn’t suicidal. IDF generals have made clear that another war with Hezbollah would likely be far more destructive than the 2006 confrontation and would likely include a ground invasion. Hezbollah is adept at fighting an insurgency in South Lebanon because they have always been able to draw on the support of the Lebanese Shia and capitalize on a weak or complicit central government in Beirut. If Hezbollah initiated a war with Israel, there is no guarantee that it would benefit from either of these factors…
That’s not the key quote. It’s this:
Hezbollah’s primary objective is Lebanese political dominion. Israel and the U.S. have effectively handed them this prize on platter, first by awarding Hezbollah a military victory in 2006, which they parlayed into Lebanese political victories in 2006-2008, and second by illustrating to the Lebanese the need for continued protection from its southern aggressors. As observed by David Kenner, Hezbollah can expect to turn these events into a 2009 election sweep.
Independent of speculation of what Israeli retaliation might be, there is simply no good reason now for Hezbollah to do anything but cheer on Hamas from the sidelines, for which they will be richly rewarded politically.
The real question for U.S. policy is what it stands to gain by cheering on Israel from the sidelines.
“The real question for U.S. policy is what it stands to gain by cheering on Israel from the sidelines.”
I never thought I’d see that in print.