Why Idlib Matters – The Cipher Brief
Bottom Line Up Front:
- On September 7, the leaders of Russia, Turkey, and Iran are scheduled to meet in Tehran to discuss the Syrian civil war and the pending campaign to retake Idlib.
- Turkish President Recep Erdogan hopes the summit can forestall an all-out regime offensive in Idlib, where Turkey retains significant interests.
- On August 31, Turkey listed Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist group, a crucial step, in line with the United Nations’ designation in June.
- On September 4, Russia resumed airstrikes in Idlib as the Assad regime prepared to retake the province.
Since 2011, there have been a flurry of talks held on the subject of negotiating a political settlement to the Syrian civil war, few of which have resulted in any meaningful progress toward that end. The September 7th meeting in Tehran between the leaders of Iran, Russia, and Turkey might be the exception if it manages to postpone what appears to be a looming military assault in Idlib province.