Why Do We Still Need a Huge Army?
08.29.2011 at 12:43pm
… asks Chris Rawley at his latest Information Dissemination post, Libya Lessons: Supremacy of the SOF-Airpower Team… Or, Why Do We Still Need a Huge Army? BLUF for Chris:
I realize the above concepts are controversial, but I also know that the US became a secure and strong nation and will remain powerful because of sea power, not land power. And a globally deployed Navy/Marine Corps team, combined with a robust range of airpower and special operators is the force we need to defeat just about any conceivable future threat. So why shouldn't the Army take a disproportionate share of the impending DOD budget cuts?
No two wars are the same and trying to develop a force structure template from a past war(s) is unwise. One size does not fit all. But the below “recipe” sounds nice (and sounds somewhat like Simpkins’ Race to the Swift) but when this gentlemen’s proposed Army goes down to 200K there will not be sufficient manpower to sustain an Army Special Operations Force.
Excerpt:
“Look at the range of expected combat missions over the next few decades:
-Overthrowing a dictatorial regime? Use SOF married to an indigenous force of irregulars supported by naval forces and air power.
-Want to defeat a large conventional army? SOF and ISR will target enemy ground formations for destruction by air power and naval fires.
-Need to counter an irregular threat? Apply SOF, naval, and air power. Rinse. Repeat.
-Steady state shaping operations? SOF excels at these, and the navy’s forward deployed forces are always positioned to respond to emerging crises.”
But this article sounds like a not so veiled pitch for a large Navy/Marine force by using a smoke and mirrors focus on SOF.
Again, I fear we are about to embark on some very intense inter-service infighting as all the Services fight to maintain force structure, modernization programs, reset costs and their share of the budget. It would be nice to prioritize and resource based on strategy rather than pipe dreams like the one below (which is not to deny that SOF can and will play an important role in any strategy but so will all the Services whether the conflict is conventional, irregular or hybrid).
And I think America has been safe and secure and became a great power because of Land and Sea (and later Air) power. An either or approach among Services and capabilities will not serve our future strategy.
This piece is pretty superficial and draws some faulty conclusions in some cases. The author’s comments on Special Forces in Northern Iraq demonstrate a lack of understanding of what happened. His comments about SF and Airpower being effective in the North are true as far as they go, but he either didn’t know or dismissed the fact that the bulk of Saddam’s forces in the North pulled out to go south to reinforce Baghdad from the approaching Army and Marine forces. If Saddam’s Army decided to push across the green line with their armor columns both SOF and the Kurds would have no choice but to withdraw into the mountains and run a guerrilla campaign, which is hardly decisive against large conventional forces who have prohibitions against employing the tactics necessary to win against such a threat. In other words, they wouldn’t employ a hearts and minds campaign.
As Shinseki pointed out, the issue with OIF was we didn’t have enough GPF ground forces to stabilize the situation (and it was doubtful even if they did employ that they would have the skills and wherewithall to suppress an insurgency anyway, but in theory if we had a well trained Army the right size force could have suppressed the insurgency). To the author’s other point about SOF and Air causing Saddam’s regime to collapse with more patience and less chaos, perhaps but that is largely an unknown and the Iraqi officers I spoke to in 2003 said they were not fighting for the chair (meaning Saddam), but for their country. To assume that dropping a few bombs would cause an Army to quit in mass when they’re defending “their” country seems a bit arrogant.
If we had a more isolationist foreign policy we may be able to get buy with the author’s prescription, but as a world leader I suspect we’ll see more Bosnia’s, Kosovo’s, Haiti’s, and the threat of major theater war will persist, and the requirement for a large ground force will remain an enduring requirement. The author claims we were successful in Libya (also naively claims if U.S. SOF was employed Qadafi would be gone immediately that ignores the challenges we faced finding Saddam, UBL, Bosnian war criminals, cartels, etc.), but that is yet to be seen. SOF and air may be able to decapitate regimes, but then what? What is success? What is required to achieve it?
It is easy to get excited about the SOF/Air team if you have a video game mentality, but the real world is more complex and requires more options. On the other hand, the utility of the SOF/Air team is proven and appropriate in some situations.
Wow did he open a can of worms. Several points:
First: Not surprised. I expect the anti-Army, pro-Navy/Air Force doctrine proposals to be the next coolest thing since COIN. The Army has had too much influence over the last ten years, and the other services would like a more balanced distribution (…of funds that is) in the coming decades. Like I said, I’m not surprised.
Second: Someone doesn’t seem to like the Army. My guess is the author, who serves on the United States Special Operations Interagency Joint Task Force, and is a surface warfare officer by trade, might explain the Anti-Army, anti-conventional force bias in the article.
Third: He’s right. The Airpower/Special Operations combination is absolutely devastating. Early Afghanistan, northern Iraq (to some extent), and now even Libya are good examples of his theory in action. In my opinion this is intervention done right. Starting small (SOF) and staying small (no massive intervention land forces, but rather host nation forces) is the way to go. Why fix something that isn’t broken? It’s relatively cost effective, and it seems to work out too.
Fourth: He’s wrong. Airpower and sea power, even SOF supported, cannot defeat every enemy threat, especially the large conventional ones. Dessert Storm is a pretty good example. Dug in Iraqi forces could not be defeated until American Armor and Infantry (working in combination with air assets) swept them up, regardless of how many bombs we dropped on them. Isreal in 2006 provides another example. Additionally, with the proliferation of modern guided rockets, artillery, and missiles, the threat to our air and sea dominance capability is only going to be challenged to a greater extent in the future; sort of a big problem for a Naval/Air power centric model.
So the author does have a point: a large expensive land army is probably not the best structure for the future. However, I would argue that a large naval/air/SOF structure isn’t the right idea either.
-Michael
I might be mistaken but weren’t the SOF operations in Northern Iraq supported by some conventional forces? Specifically the 173rd and some tank companies flown in from Germany?
Buk
Two things
1) where is the “easy” solution for Afghanistan, according to the author’s premises?
2) why is it that during the ifor/kfor/bosnia/kosovo mess that SOF and ISR were not so great at finding and blowing up SU-27 parked in farms, using highways as runways; and why is that SOF/ISR were out there dropping bombs on compact cars with telephone poles sticking out of them, and calling those kills on armored targets?
If the solution to all wars and all military action is a combination of sea and SOF power, the author needs to make a much stronger argument than we see here.
I wouldn’t call this controversial, I’d just call it ill-advised and myopic.
The author makes the right conclusion for all the wrong reasons. Examples of recent events don’t really prove anything. Nothing we did drove any of the Arab Spring events to date; and we have little concept of which of our actions have helped or hindered our efforts in Iraq or Afghanistan.
In history, however, we can look to a centuries long case study of the British Empire; a maritime nation that found that even the narrow channel provided the separation adequate to allow them to assume risk in regards to an Army, and to focus their military on the power projection of a mighty navy. That small Army learned that it could expand its own limited capacity considerably by building competent partners from the populaces of the places they were sent to operate, and need not be large themselves to be successful.
While this is a different era, and colonialism and colonial military partners are not viable (IMO) in the current information environment; the geostrategic realities of where the US sits on the planet is an immutable advantage. “Location, Location, Location.”
Historically we have assumed too much risk I think with some of the extremely small armies we have maintained, but we must remember the foul taste that England left in our mouths for standing armies. I think we are long over that, but it remains a geostrategicly supportable argument, that the US does not need a large standing Army today.
Would that prevent us from being able to launch quickly into large operations such as Iraq or Afghanistan? Yes. That is an additional benefit of keeping our active Army appropriately sized for the needs of the era it exists within.
We need to look to history for our insights, not yesterday’s newspaper.
Although a (Canadian) army officer, I agree with the general observation that the USA does not need a large army. But I do not buy the thesis that SOF and strike capabilities are all that the US needs to support its national interests. Armies are needed to fight any kind of war that matters, and there is the rub.
Which wars really matter? Which ones are luxuries, to be fought for minor national interests because the nation is rich and can afford them? And which ones are in defence of vital interests and must be won regardless of the cost and pain?
I have argued before on this site that the US has not fought a war of neccesity since 1945. (A war which the US won, despite having rather small and obsolete land and air forces only a decade prior.)
We can disagree about this or that conflict, but it seems clear that most of the wars since then have been in the ‘war of choice’ catagory. The maintenance of US unchallengable supremacy has, however, been an expensive luxury. I believe that those days are ending.
You may object that there is small political constituency for deep defence cuts in the US today, but I would suggest that (a) support for isolationism is growing within the US; and (b) fiscal realities will simply force the issue. You just can’t balance the US budget without cuts to the big ticket items, and I bet US voters would rather trim a few divisions and CVNs, rather than cut medicare (though they will likely end up having to do both).
And this is not foolhardy. US global dominance is stupendous. I think sometimes my american friends are so close to the issue that they forget how total it is. Not just in standing forces, but long-term war-fighting potential. And in allies. The USA accounts for about half of global defence spending, but friendly nations account for about half of the remainder as well. The US could cut its existing military forces and procurement programs in half and still be dominant for decades to come. It will mean a much reduced global policeman, however. So be it.
And if a new challenger arises? So what? Protected by its location, the US will always have the luxury of re-arming at leisure for WW3.
Mr. Rawley’s idea provides a good middle ground option for us and has worked well enough in Afghanistan in 2001 and recently in Libya, both times against a rabble. I wish we had had the nerve to try it in South Iraq in 1991. It would have given us a good betwixt and between option to support those we encouraged to rise up against Saddam whom we then abandoned. It also would have given a more fair test of the concept than the two examples cited.
However, to say because it has worked twice against a rabble it can therefore replace large formations in conventional big battles is in keeping with the great and hallowed American military cultural tradition of saying that the latest magic machine can make war cheap and easy for us. The only difference with Mr. Rawley’s idea is that he has added magic men, 10 foot tall SOFs, to the magic precision guided machines. It really doesn’t matter how long the SOFs train or what their washout rate is, in his context the magic men are just little groups of light infantry with radios, forward air controllers with some local gunslingers around, if the locals are willing. They will call in airstrikes that can be delivered if the weather is good, the gps works and there are enough air bases near by so a lot of airplanes can be kept overhead long enough and often enough to keep them from being snapped up. This makes for a great movie or video concept, as has been mentioned, but I don’t see it replacing a combined arms force in a real honest to goodness big battle.
I think we have already tried pretty much what Mr. Rawley suggests. In every war we have fought since 1943 we have had overwhelming air and artillery supremacy and the ability to literally almost rain bombs and shells on enemies heads wherever and whenever we pleased, weight of fire taking the place of precision of fire. But in order to actually get those enemies to move, we had to send in the PBI, otherwise those enemies just dug deeper, hid better and stayed put. Addition of the magic men to the magic machines won’t change that. It won’t make war easy.
Mr. Rawley you stated that the airplanes would keep the tanks from concentrating ergo the little FAC teams will be safe. Why would you need concentrated armor to take the little FAC team? If they moved dispersed or the wx was bad the enemy may do good enough, even with no tanks at all.
I wish our oceans gave us the protection they used to, but I fear they do not; not in an era when it takes well over a decade to get a combat airplane into service. We will be fatally crippled long before years needed to overcome prior years of neglect have passed.
The Nation requires a preeminent Navy which includes a strong Marine Corps, and…
an Army which is the long term repository of Air-Land and all-service applicable capabilties (Mortuary – for example). The Army needs to be the bank of expertise for major war, be it in a resourced reserve, active duty cadre, or division or corps level strength in garrison. 10 divisions deployed, combat ready, to Europe, in two weeks is not a current strategic goal; nor are the left over post WWII forces of occupation/cold war western European defense properly pre-positioned for the National Military Strategy, or the Operational Plans developed as contingencies for that Strategy.
This is because, at the moment, our strategy is essentially a collection of leftovers with a (hopefully) versatile short order cook standing by to approximate the a la carte request of the customers. To extend the DoD as a restaurant metaphor a bit, SOF alone is a DC hot dog cart, not a 24/7 cafeteria with banquet rooms available at no notice, which is what is required for the next century. History, academics’ foolishness aside, is far from over, and future history is far from accurately predictable.
And the Air Force? It might be best to fold some of them back into the Army ((TAC)and the Transports), and place the remainder under the Secretary of the Army as a separate service organizationally similar to the USMC/Navy relationship. The idea would be to keep it’s technological strength intact, but adjust the roles and missions to increase responsiveness in the lab, joint equipment fielding, and on the battlefield.
First, we need an over-arching strategy. Containment served, and was able to deal with fiscal limits which varied over half a century. Now we need something else.
What we don’t need is a fire sale at the fire house like 1946, lest we wind up facing something like the can of worms that opened itself in 1950, e.g., nothing at the hot dog stand but hot dogs, and crow.
Whatever we decide will determine what dish we set before the NCA at 0300 – likely within a decade, two at the most.