With three Afghan government ministries in Kabul hit by simultaneous suicide attacks this week, by a total of just eight terrorists, it seems that a new "Mumbai model" of swarming, smaller-scale terrorist violence is emerging.
The basic concept is that hitting several targets at once, even with just a few fighters at each site, can cause fits for elite counterterrorist forces that are often manpower-heavy, far away and organized to deal with only one crisis at a time. This approach certainly worked in Mumbai, India, last November, where five two-man teams of Lashkar-e-Taiba operatives held the city hostage for two days, killing 179 people. The Indian security forces, many of which had to be flown in from New Delhi, simply had little ability to strike back at more than one site at a time.
While it's true that the assaults in Kabul seem to be echoes of Mumbai, the fact is that Al Qaeda and its affiliates have been using these sorts of swarm tactics for several years. Jemaah Islamiyah - the group responsible for the Bali nightclub attack that killed 202 people in 2002 - mounted simultaneous attacks on 16 Christian churches in Indonesia on Christmas Eve in 2000, befuddling security forces...
More at The New York Times.
Comments
I hope this opinion piece is seriously debated by our homeland security community. Mr. Arquilla points out the obvious threat (the coming swarm attacks) and provides some common sense recommendations. Unfortunately the adage that common sense isn't that common rings true; especially in government circles.
In my opinion, I think there is an urgent need to increase the training standards for our police officers, and then ensure they are adequately equipped to respond to this type of attack. Waiting on a CT speciality team while terrorists continue to kill is not an option.
In larger cities we may have the luxury of establishing distributed CT squads, but that option is doubtful, especially when cities and states are experiencing serious financial woes.
Two other options that should be explored are using the military and considering the use of private security companies. I realize both ideas are taboo now, but new threats demand new ideas.