An Analysis of the Candidates on National Security and Defense Issues: John Kasich
Gary Anderson
This is the sixth in a series of analyses of the candidates’ national security positions based primarily on information gleaned from their web sites. Part 1, Bernie Sanders, can be found here, Part 2, Donald Trump, can be found here, Part 3, Hillary Clinton, can be found here, Part 4, Ted Cruz, can be found here, and Part 5, Marco Rubio, can be found here.
Overall Evaluation. Governor Kasich has flown beneath the radar to date on national security issues in Republican debates so far as he has not been seen as enough of a threat for the front runners to focus on him despite his relatively strong showing in New Hampshire. He hopes to find more traction in March in more friendly Midwestern states. Kasich claims to have more national security experience than any other candidate due to 18 years of membership on the house armed services committee. This may actually come back to haunt him as he had a reputation for proposing defense programs as cash cows for budget reduction; however, it has not been a major issue yet due to his relatively low profile and probably won’t be a major impediment.
Iraq and Afghanistan. The Governor would favor supporting troop levels requested by the commanders in Afghanistan and Iraq. He would likely seek and accept military recommendations in both cases.
Dealing with the Islamic State. Of all the remaining candidates in the race, Kasich is the only one to state definitively that he would send in American ground troops if that is necessary to decisively defeat the Islamic State and destroy its capability as a serious regional actor. Like Senator Cruz, Governor Kasich would make maximum use of the Kurds, but he apparently realizes that the Kurds have a lot on their plate and cannot be counted to act in places such as Raqqa that are beyond their normal area of ethnic interest.
Russia, China, Libya, and North Korea. Governor Kasich favors a strong stand against Russian aggressiveness, particularly in Ukraine, where he favors lethal aid to the Ukrainian government and increased missile defense for Europe.
Regarding Syria, like Mrs. Clinton and several Republicans, Kasich favors establishing “no fly zones” to protect anti-Assad rebels and civilians. Thus far in the race there has not been a serious discussion of the pros and cons of such measures, particularly since Russia is now involved on the Syrian side.
Governor Kasich is equally strong on China and favors a heavy military build-up to reassure regional allies such a Thailand which have shown signs of tilting toward China due to lack of strong American response to recent Chinese assertiveness in the region.
Mr. Kasich has a Libyan expert familiar with Benghazi on his staff, but to date has not made the Libyan situation a strong part of his campaign.
Iran. Regarding the Iran nuclear deal, Governor Kasich has said that, once in office, he would review the agreement and immediately slap on renewed sanctions if it was being violated. Unlike Senator Cruz, he is not in favor of tearing the agreement up on day one, nor will he impose sanctions based on behavior to date as Senator Rubio has indicated he would. He is generally in favor of a “wait and see” approach.
Counter-terrorism and Homeland Defense. Governor Kasich generally ties his counterterrorism efforts to his anti-ISIS strategy. He is not in favor of allowing new Syrian refugees into the country until their identity and intentions can be confirmed. In this, he is largely in the republican mainstream.
Pentagon Reform and the Size of the Military. Enlarging and modernizing the military are a major part of the Kasich national security platform. He intends to invest 108 billion in this endeavor. Cyber security is high on his agenda. He intends to pay for it through cost cutting elsewhere in the budget and streamlining the Pentagon, but there are no Cruz-like specifics on how he intends to pay; nor are there Cruz/Rubio specifics on programs and systems.
As with most candidates who promise to cut the Pentagon bureaucracy, Kasich has no specific proposals. It would be refreshing to see some hard core plans for trimming the Pentagon’s civilian and military workforce. This might be particularly useful for the governor as he has actually seen the size of the Ohio government workforce increase on his watch.
Immigration. Governor Kasich is more moderate than the three Republican frontrunners on this issue. He will strengthen the existing border fence and beef up security, but falls short of promising the “Great Wall of Trump”. He favors a rigorous path to citizenship for existing illegals. In this Kasich would probably be more palatable to independents in the general election on this specific issue.
The Republican Primaries. Assuming that he can survive into March and seem more threatening to the frontrunners, Kasich will have to explain his penchant for using defense programs as a budget cutting cash cow while he was a congressman. However, his generally strong defense proposals should not make national security a major problem for him. Governor Kasich faces the real problem of portraying himself as a nice guy in an election cycle where many of his party’s primary voters are looking for red meat.
The General Election Campaign. If he defies the odds and wins the nomination, national security will be a strong point for the governor and should help him with crossover Blue Dog Democrats who dislike Mrs. Clinton and defense minded independents who view Senator Sanders as a leftover 60s peacenik.