Small Wars Journal

A really bad day for bin Laden -- and for Pakistan

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 9:58am
The killing of Osama bin Laden is a satisfying triumph for Americans and the U.S. government. It would have been even more satisfying had it occurred in the weeks and months after the September 2001 attacks. But the fact that it took a decade to finally kill bin Laden should be warning to any who doubt the long memories and persistence of the U.S. government's counterterrorism forces. They didn't forget and they never stopped working on the problem.

The Joint Special Operations Command, presumably the command responsible for the mission, should get credit for demonstrating its ability to successfully raid targets virtually anywhere in the world. The CIA also gets credit for patiently developing the required intelligence and for reminding everyone of the value of battlefield captures, interrogations, and human intelligence.

Finally, President Barack Obama deserves great credit for taking the risk of ordering this raid. He likely knew that the past record of such high-visibility raids was not good and that much more can go wrong with these operations than go right. He must also have known that another Desert One fiasco could have been disastrous on several levels.

Most notable was Obama's willingness to shatter America's relationship with Pakistan in order to take a gamble on getting bin Laden. For this raid is a black day for Pakistan and its relationship with the United States. As the White House background briefing on the raid makes clear, the United States kept the raid completely concealed from the Pakistani government. Combine this with the fact that bin Laden was found in a highly protected compound in a wealthy town near Pakistan's capital, and a stone's throw from a Pakistani military academy. Americans will be right to conclude that Pakistan was bin Laden's long-time friend and not America's. What little support Pakistan still enjoys in Washington will now likely melt away. Pakistan will have to look to China, its last friend, for the support it will need to survive.

Although the struggle against terrorism will go on, the death of bin Laden will bring a sense of finality for most in the American electorate. Combine that with more evidence of Pakistan's duplicity, the evident breakdown in relations between the United States and Pakistan, and what will likely be the most bloody year yet for U.S. soldiers fighting in Afghanistan. The result could be a final collapse of public support for the war in Afghanistan. That probably won't bother President Obama too much and will bolster his argument to accelerate the U.S. withdrawal from that war later this year.

Comments

It was a job well done.

More than that, it was years of jobs well done and literally decades of capacity building from the disaster that was Desert One to today's robust and diverse special operations capacity.

The political fallout from this will play out over the coming several years. Pakistan, as a unitary state, may not survive it; the hazards it faces are too numerous to mention.

I've quoted you and linked to you here: http://consul-at-arms2.blogspot.com/2011/06/re-really-bad-day-for-bin-l…

carl (not verified)

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 9:14pm

It seems logical to me Omar. Suddenly they are confronted by the US doing what it said it was going to do instead of pretending it was going to do what it said it was going to do and doing what it had been doing for the last 10 years. They probably figure it is positively un-American and there ought to be a law.

The whole thing would be Wodehouse funny except for the pools of blood and the body parts scattered about.

omarali50

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 7:19pm

I know excessive psychologizing is not popular on this generally common-sense blog, but I would not be surprised if senior Pakistani officers are the ones feeling wounded because of this fuss.
They may feel that it was "understood" that no one really really wants Osama and we can all be happy endlessly "looking for him". And that its the US that is violating unwritten "understandings" by being so fussy about such things all of a sudden.
The notion that the US seriously wants the whole jihadi operation shut down would be even harder to accept for them. I can imagine them thinking that the US was perfectly happy with jihadi terrorists a few years ago and was having endless cups of tea with Kiyani sahib just a few months ago. What changed? why the sudden public fuss? Is this how friends behave? Is there an Indian hand in all this? What do the Americans REALLY want? Is this a plot against our nukes as Shireen Mazari has long maintained? Were we fools to trust the US once again? Are they going to betray us again?
I am not kidding.

carl (not verified)

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 6:43pm

RPPR:

In other words, business as usual. They step on us, and we be understanding and nice to them and maybe they won't step on us anymore. Bad idea, which is not to say that it won't meet an enthusiastic, though nuanced, reception inside the beltway.

rppr (not verified)

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 6:29pm

Adding to the most recent topic on the news of US-Pakistan relations from this event: I think we have to be cautious and have Pakistan "save face" for both the international community and their own people. We cannot just cut all ties. Yes, there may have been some backhanded cooperation and the flood of investigations will bring them to light. Nevertheless, OBL was part of a network that we are continuing fight. We still need Pakistan, and if Pakistan no longer needs us, they may look to China for support, which btw, is increasing their influence throughout the world. It is obviously quite embarrassing what happened, and I dont think anyone will forget it. They will remember how we handle it. If anything, maybe we get more cooperation from Pakistan from either our findings or graciousness.

carl (not verified)

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 1:05pm

Omar:

Good point about not feeling safe under the protection of the ISI at any time. Though I do suppose it helps to throw one of the slaves overboard to the sharks once in a while. Good point nonetheless.

"Michael Corleone int the White House"! Boy are the inside the beltway insiders going to love that description. Maybe true. I don't think young Michael is really thinking much beyond getting re-elected though. Anything good would be a fortunate accident.

omarali50

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 12:56pm

I am not sure it enhances any control over anyone. If you were under their protection, would YOU feel safe? Everybody has to hedge their bets now.
I do find it plausible that Pakistan actually cooperated with the raid. But that is why i said "story around it"...the story has its impact even if its not totally true. A friend commented yesterday that ISI may have lost more than they THOUGHT they were losing..let us assume that the US found out about Osama and held a gun to their head or that the US applied some pressure to make them cough him up or that the US always knew and now Obama wanted him caught (the last theory assumes that Cheney never actually wanted him caught) or whatever, but whatever the details, the thing my friend wanted to point out was that ISI may have thought they are going to take on some humiliation and flak and get the deal done, but Michael Corleone in the White House knew that once the story was out, it would change the whole strategic picture. All of sudden, its not the same world it was on saturday.
I think there may be something in that thought.
Anyway, who knows. Or rather, someone knows but it aint me. Maybe everything will be back to baseline in a month. But then again, maybe not.

carl (not verified)

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 11:30am

Omar:

That is IF the ISI didn't want him killed. If they were in on the deal as I suspect, MO, Haqqani pere and the others will still feel the same unease wondering if and when the ISI will rat them out. For the ISI this will have the beneficial effect of enhancing their control over the good Taliban.

omarali50

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 8:42am

No, the importance of the raid is the story around it. That Seal Team 6 can go and take out a person that ISI did not want taken out (or did not know about, take your pick). This suddenly raises the disturbing possibility that Daood Ibrahim, Mullah Omar, Haqqani pere and fil and so on may not be as safe as we thought. 5-1-11 changed our world. We no longer feel safe. THey can attack us at home where our children sleep. It is psychologically highly disturbing. Will the world ever go back to the way it was before 5-1-11?

Anonymous (not verified)

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 6:34am

gotcha ! i thought you meant "highly respected" in a sarcastic manner.

omarali50

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 5:30pm

No, I meant abdul qadir hassan, Orya maqbool jan, irfan siddiqui...serious and respected people, not jokers like Zaid Hamid or "paknationalists" like Imran Khan spokeswoman and respected "strategic analyst", Ms Mazari (who, I suspect, cannot write Urdu to save her life).

Anonymous (not verified)

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 3:42pm

omar:

are you talking about shireen mazari, zaid hamid, hamid gul etc... when you refer to the urdu press?

omarali50

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 12:29pm

btw, I do expect some more people at the funeral-prayers-in-absentia on Friday. The religious parties are organizing for a show of strength and the rightwing press has built up some momentum, so I am guessing more people will show up than the dozens who showed up for round one.
But there is great incoherence in the narratives GHQ and its friends in the (soon to be defunct?) mullah-military alliance are spinning...so much incoherence (Osama never attacked America on 9-11, yet Osama is a hero for standing up to fight against America (how did he "fight" if he never attacked them?), Osama was never in Abbotabad and the whole thing is a fake (hence the burial at sea and no photos), yet we are commemorating his execution in Abbotabad with these funeral prayers< and so on) that things will come back to a frustrated, depressed, passive-aggressive seething point soon enough.
Their problem is not whether they can mobilize some people for one day of prayer or not (they can). Their problem is that there is a fundamental contradiction between their own aims (to be a modern powerful state in the modern world, and to be the vanguard of the semi-imaginary Ummah preparing for the endtimes battle) and it shows up in all sorts of unexpected place...causing them to rush from extinguishing one fire to setting another one, all the while talking about an entirely different movie that is running in their head (and the heads of some crackpot tinfoil wearers in the West..they dont even make up their script on their own, they borrow it from david duke dot com or whatever).
Having contradictory aims or mixed-up narratives or divergences between propaganda and reality is not unique to Pakistan. But there are contradictions and then there are contradictions. Its a matter of degree. The rightwing hypernationalist Pakistani narrative (so carefully nurtured by GHQ's own psyops operators, now apparently out of their control in the same fashion as their jihadi soldiers are out of their control) is just far enough beyond the international human norm to be especially prone to problems...
I strongly urge everyone to read some of the Urdu columns written by highly respected mainstream columnists to see how far off teh reservation the whole tribe has wandered...

Demon Fox

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 11:24am

Yesterday our Afghan Commando counterparts commented that the next time we invade Pakistan, they want to go with us.

They weren't joking.

carl (not verified)

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 2:43pm

"who dream of admission to the Wharton school of business and martyr paradise on the same night,"

That is a great turn of phrase.

omarali50

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 2:28pm

More people than that show up for neighborhood mafioso's funeral.
Arab spring enthusiasts have no idea what is actually going on in Pakistan. Most of them are internet burger-jihadists who dream of admission to the Wharton school of business and martyr paradise on the same night, then wake up to start preparing for their microsoft certification. Ignore them.

carl (not verified)

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:12am

Anon:

What is new about any of that? A Jihadi political party is upset about something and burned another US flag, the bad Taliban is upset about something and is going to blow up some Pakistanis, no novelty there. If that is the spring, it sprung a long time ago.

Anonymous (not verified)

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:00am

So you think the Arab Spring cannot come to Af-Pak?
Think again, Small Wars Journal.
<blockquote>Protestors were said to belong to Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, a religious party in Quetta, and were led by federal lawmaker Maulawi Asmatullah. They are also reported to have burned a US flag.
The Pakistani Taliban have now warned government leaders of retaliation. Ehsanullah Ehsan, a spokesman for Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) told Reuters:
"Now Pakistani rulers, President Zardari and the army will be our first targets. America will be our second target."</blockquote>

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/in-pakistan-a-religious-group-pays-homag…

shams (not verified)

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 9:52am

And if i may...i would like to draw your attention to part of the story i quoted.
<blockquote>They also torched a US flag <strong>before dispersing peacefully.</strong> </blockquote>

The trademark non-violent grassroots, social media protest of the Arab Spring 21st century style, popularized first in Tahir Square.

shams (not verified)

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 9:39am

anon: surely you have realized by now that Obama is a coolheaded machiavellian pragmatist. The risk benefit matrix showed a high probability of success....and that is another reason to believe SEAL Team Six already had OBL's geo-loc.

omar: did you really not hear the contempt in your voice, when you said the brown people they were going to get what they deserved?
Are all "brown pundits" this un-selfaware?

happygirl: that was not zealotry in my voice but disgust. Rather than having a Team America F*ck Yeah! national block party, we should be quietly folding our tents and silently slipping away.
The death of OBL should be used as cover to GTFO Af-Pak before something REALLY bad happens. Like Operation Frequent Wind Redux and the fall of Saigon II.
<a href="http://m.ibtimes.com/osama-bin-laden-s-pakistani-supporters-rally-burn-… flag burning</a>
<blockquote>Angry participants belonging to a religious party in Quetta, the capital of southwestern province Baluchistan, were led by federal lawmaker Maulawi Asmatullah.</blockquote>
now do you see why Zardaris government could not openly aid the Americans?

Anon (not verified)

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 3:04am

Obama was brave by ordering the raid? He took 16 hours to "sleep on it" which had the potential for security leaks and a get away. How is that decisive and brave? Desert One was a long time ago and some things have changed. Besides, really, anyone in that photo except Adm Mullen even remember the 1980s military? As for "shattering" the relationship with Pakistan, as long as we are chumps and throw money at them, they won't squeal too loudly. The Pakistanis need to figure out how to have been on top of all this, yet not on top of this raid by Imperialist-foreigner-infidels; depending on which audience they are playing to.

shams (not verified)

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 12:33am

<blockquote>America will be much better off leaving the whole region to China and whoever wants it. </blockquote>

And the nukes, brother omar? what happens to the 75--100 nukes?

shams (not verified)

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 12:26am

wallah, brother omar
I am talking about a New Arab Spring for Pakistan, not the old one.
The droning is destabilizing Zardaris government.
Pakistan may not have supported OBL, but they certainly looked the other way...so they knew where he was to cash him in as a marker.
Imran Khan, the Tehreek-e-Insaf, Jamaat-e-ismali and the Pukhtoon Students Federation and many, many tribals want the US to GTFO.
Khan is SUING America in international court.
There is a grassroots, populist movement to stop the droning.
There was a social media organized sit-in to block NATO supply routes. Pak citizens are burning American flags and marching in protest.
Why do you seek to minimize this? What is your interest?
If the Arab Spring comes to Pakistan.... Afghanistan will have the American Fall.
The protests will run across the border like wildfire.

omarali50

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 11:47pm

The arab spring came to Pakistan 40 years ago when the people of Pakistan managed to overthrow "Field Marshal" Ayub Khan and got the right to vote in a free general election. Unfortunately, there have been many ups and downs since then, but even today, Pakistan has an elected regime, multiple political parties and vigorous politics. It is not an arab autocracy and the only Arab spring is in the dreams of Bonapartists who think that "the people" will provide an opening for the beloved army to reestablish direct military rule. Considering the vast resources at the command of the army, that may indeed be engineered, but it will be no arab spring and it will bring no American fall. America will be much better off leaving the whole region to China and whoever wants it. Its the people of Pakistan who will have to pay the price for their army's adventures in that case...

shams (not verified)

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 11:28pm

inna lillaahi wa innaa ilayhi raaji'oon, brother Omar
I am not joking and I am not a sahib.
If the Arab Spring comes to Pakistan there is going to be one hell of an American Fall.

carl (not verified)

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 11:11pm

Geesh. I'm the most gullible guy in the world.

omarali50

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 10:54pm

Carl, you are not taking Shams sahib in the right spirit. He is joking.

carl (not verified)

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 6:57pm

Shams:

I never thought that the Pak Army/ISI may have given up OBL in exchange for stopping the droning. Good thought.

happygirl293 (not verified)

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 6:35pm

My my Shams, you are a zealot. I lost my first version of the post and it was a lot better but I am a bit busy today so the second version was not as well written, sorry if you misunderstood my meaning.

I am not completely ignorant about Pakistan, I note your rather dismissive tone to other peoples posts so I won't take it personally.

Yes it is complicated, but we have more to be concerned with than Imran Khan blocking the road and sticking his oar in the political waters.Yes cricket legend he may be... but warrior he is not. He is wealthy and pretty smart but has always been a bit of a showpony. He only had a few thousand supporters and the road could have been cleared pretty easily, but what the hell let them blow off a bit of steam.

Arab spring in Pakistan is not what I was meaning and yes I meant what I said "Iran example". My understsnding is that the Arab sring in not aimed at setting up theocracies like Iran. But you may not be familiar with the meaning of what I was referring to Iran and Egypt are two different situations. I was reffering to a situation where the US loses all influence I was talking about the essence of the situation not the form (to clarify I was not talking about overthrowing the Shar) So sorry if my point was not clear. Of course some would argue that we have no influence in Pakistan anyway...but I believe we still do and thier strategic location is important for now.

shams (not verified)

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 1:31pm

pardon, anonymous was I.

happygrrl: as per the Iran example

It will be the Egypt example, not the Iran example. Pakistan is already an islamic state with shariah in the constitution like Egypt.
jamaat-e-ismali is a Pak political party with seats in parliament.
Seen here <a href="http://www.antifascistencyclopedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Pakis… CIA contractor Davis.</a>
Pakistani civilians seen here <a href="http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2010/9/9/1284… American flags.</a>
America is welded at the hip to Zardari's government.
If the Pak government falls to an Arab Spring style revolution, the islamist parties will step right in.

Anonymous (not verified)

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 1:19pm

So this complicated situation goes way beyond the "is Pakistan our friend?" rhetoric.
right Happygrrl

OF COURSE OBL had Pakistani support. But I think was just turning a blind eye.
He was living in the middle of a Pak military city. Sure America had been pursuing the courier intel angle. So what?
Pasha sold OBLs geo-loc to Panetta last month in the meet, and an ingress/egress pass to go with it.
He had no choice. Panetta refused to stop the drones that are destabilizing the Pak government.
That is why Panetta got Gates job.
Gilani, Pasha, Petraeus, Panetta and Obama are unified on one goal.
Stopping the Arab Spring from spreading to Af-Pak theater.
<a href="http://www.siasat.pk/forum/showthread.php?63228-Imran-Khan-declares-leg… Khan declares legal war against US drone attacks in Pakistan</a>
<blockquote>Islamabad, April 20(ANI): Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan has announced plans to adopt a two-way strategy to end the US drone campaign in Pakistan's tribal areas- by the application of public pressure within the country, and taking legal action through international courts of law.</blockquote>
The Pak gov knew exactly where OBL was. They could have given him up anytime.
It was Panettas threat to keep up the droning that forced them to cough him up.
For their own survival.

happygirl293 (not verified)

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 1:06pm

Let's not forget that Pakistan is nuclear enabled. If I was an islamist I would want to destabalise the legitimate government (as per the Iran example) and take control of Pakistan. Instead of being in the position of trying to develop weapons it would be a "here's one I prepared earlier " situation.

Obviously the Dept of State and others are walking a fine line. The politics of countries like Pakistan are extremely complicated. Because of the relative stability of Government here the average American simply cannot conceive how complicated it truely is. So this complicated situation goes way beyond the "is Pakistan our friend?" rhetoric.

shams (not verified)

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 8:49am

<blockquote>The US can't "play" Pakistan at this point because the Pakistanis control the supply routes that the US uses to support its forces in Afghanistan.</blockquote>

The Pak <em>government</em> isnt blocking NATO supply routes- the Pak <em>citizens</em> are blocking NATO routes.
America is already getting kicked out of Iraq in December. A retreat turned rout in A-stan would be very bad juju for us... a public global emasculation of epic proportions.
Can you imagine Tahir style protests in Islamabad? They would spread to Kabul like wildfire.

shams (not verified)

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 8:26am

"Little worry that "Arab" Spring will affect this region. It has actually been more the opposite, with populaces in the Middle East drawing courage from AFPAK, than the other way around."
??

My hypoth is that Pasha sold OBL to Panetta last month in their meet.
The "secret training compound" is a smokescreen to give the Pak government plausible denial. The stealth mission set up since up since April is just more cover and plausible deniability for the Paks. And the SEAL laden helos could zoom in and out because the fix was in with Pak airdefense.
Sheesh, we can build virtual training simulations for denied sites into a game environment simulator in a week.

But why did Americas lapdog Lieut Gen Pasha do that?
Because the Arab Spring is spreading to Pakistan.
<strong>students</strong>
<blockquote>At least 800 activists of Pukhtoon Students Federation (PSF), along with local tribesmen, gathered in the city of Dera Ismail Khan in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province to condemn the attacks on the northwestern Waziristan region that have claimed hundreds of lives so far,</blockquote>

<strong>and a political party lead by a sports hero</strong>
<blockquote>A Pakistani opposition leader on Sunday threatened to have supporters block NATO supply routes to Afghanistan and march to Islamabad if U.S. drone strikes in the country were not halted. Imran Khan, a famous former cricket player and the head of the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf, or justice movement party, made the ultimatum at the end of a two-day sit-in in Peshawar in protest of the drone strikes, which he says have killed civilians.</blockquote>

Now where did we just see protests powered by college students and an unfranchised political party overthrow a thirty year dictator?
hmmm? sound familiar?
Can you say.... Egypt?
Plus social media frontpages and realtimes American atrocities and droning "errors" and the antics of Terry Jones.
Both the Syrian and Egyptian protests were kicked off by facebook.
The demise of OBL is going to going to give the US some scraps of face to start the drawdown in July... TWO MONTHS AWAY.
Pasha sold OBL to Panetta to damp down the droning so that Pak didnt get its very own local franchise of the Arab Spring.
And Panetta got Gates old job.

Can you not imagine how badass the Taliban would get if there was an Arab Spring style revolution going on in Pakistan next door? And if the Pak American lapdog government falls, the islamists get nukes.

Anon:

The US can't "play" Pakistan at this point because the Pakistanis control the supply routes that the US uses to support its forces in Afghanistan. That's a bit of a trump card. A US military drawdown in Afghanistan, at least to a level that would remove that dependence, would actually increase US leverage over Pakistan.

Anonymous (not verified)

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 5:25pm

they are nuts. harboring this guy for a decade and we still dont have a upper hand? our govt. better seal the deal and get an upper hand because of this. the pakistanis are so cunning. ok good for them. but still, why cant we seem to ever play them like they can play us?

Gotta wonder who exactly was informed about this raid in Pakistan. ISI, GHQ, civilian government? Does aid go up or down because of this...

carl (not verified)

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 2:46pm

Robert C. Jones:

You say "My point that bin Laden could hide virtually anywhere is important. That is not a stretch or strain of credibility, that is fact."

That is not a fact, that is a claim. One that does not hold much water in view of the location of Mr. OBL's demise.

I am very puzzled that you continue to say "the populace that suppports the Taliban is the primary source of AQ sanctuary, and that the one organization best positioned to evict AQ from Pakistan is the Taliban and not the government there". The area of Mr. OBL's demise is thoroughly controlled by the Pak Army/ISI, not the Pathan tribes, who are whom I presume you mean when you say the populace that supports the Taliban. (Your statement does make sense if the "populace" supporting the Taliban is the Pak Army/ISI) And it is the Pak Army/ISI who control the Pak Air Force, not the Taliban, so I don't think the Air Force ignored our helos zipping to and fro at the direction of MO and the boys.

I believe your position has been overtaken by events.

Bob's World

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 2:21pm

"Pashtun Spring" has been rolling since about 2005. Little worry that "Arab" Spring will affect this region. It has actually been more the opposite, with populaces in the Middle East drawing courage from AFPAK, than the other way around.

But the two are linked. Most of the Arab foreign fighters who travel to support AQ do so in hopes that it will advance their nationalist causes back home. As those nationalist causes are resolved far fewer will see much need to answer AQ's call. Already I suspect most Egyptians and Libyans are heading home to focus on the issues that matter to them most. If we pay Arab Spring wisely it could disempower AQ tremendously, reducing them to minor irritant status.

We must remember that it is not bin Laden's Islamist ideology that radicalizes these populaces, but rather the actions of their respective governments. The ideology is just a convenient rally to bring them together and move them to action.

RT (not verified)

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 2:01pm

To Omar's point about Pakistan possibly making a policy choice to part ways from both the "good" and the "bad" jihadis, then the opportunity may be there to assist them with some house cleaning.

shams (not verified)

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 1:54pm

dude, omar get a clue.
"The Islamist-jihadi project is not compatible with peaceful coexistence in a world dominated by infidels. "
The Muslim Brotherhood has a franchise supporting every single revolution that makes up the Arab Spring.
All the US is doing right now in Af-Pak is spending 100 million a day to committ atrocities, drone citizens and make more hostiles. Social media means al-jazeerha posts atrocities in realtime and also Quran-burning WEC retards like Jones get instant air.
The demise of OBL is going to going to give the US some scraps of face to start the drawdown in July...TWO MONTHS AWAY.
Pasha sold OBL to the americans to hasten their departure is all.
If the Arab Spring gets rollin' in Af-Pak the islamist get nukes.
A development to emminently be avoided.
;)

carl (not verified)

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 1:48pm

Omar:

Very well stated as always. The tragedy is the Afghans will pay most of the bill.

shams (not verified)

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 1:45pm

so, guyz.
What do you think the biggest worry for the US is right now?
My guess is Petraeus's greatest fear is that the Arab Spring spreads to the Af-pak theater before we can GTFO.
<blockquote>A Pakistani opposition leader on Sunday threatened to have supporters block NATO supply routes to Afghanistan and march to Islamabad if U.S. drone strikes in the country were not halted.
Imran Khan, a famous former cricket player and the head of the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf, or justice movement party, made the ultimatum at the end of a two-day sit-in in Peshawar in protest of the drone strikes, which he says have killed civilians.
His pressure appeared to be aimed most directly at the Pakistani government, which is cooperating with the United States to allow the strikes.
"If drones are not stopped, we all will move towards Islamabad," the Pakistani capital, Khan said.
Khan's party, doesn't have any representation in parliament, is nonetheless popular among the country's youth.
Many people attended the second day of the sit-in in Peshawar, which blocked one of the routes used by NATO to send supplies from Pakistan to Afghanistan. NATO supplies are transported from the port in the southern city of Karachi to Afghanistan through two routes.
Those gathered represented several political and religious parties.
"A drone strike made me an orphan," said one sign held by Jamal Khan, an 8-year-old who lost his father in a drone strike last year.
Siraj Ahmed, the top government official of Peshawar district, told CNN he came to know that the contractors who transport the NATO supplies from the route where sit-in was organized suspended their routes during the protest.
"Practically, the protesters have stopped the supply to NATO in Afghanistan by blocking one of the two routes for (a) couple of days," Ahmed said.
The United States says that the drones target only militants, but civilians have been reportedly killed as well, making their presence unpopular in the country.
"Pakistanis aren't animals who can be killed by drones," Khan said Saturday. "They have human rights, as Americans do."
Imran Khan sets 30 days deadline over US drone</blockquote>
The simulated compound set up since up since April is just more cover and plausible deniability for the Pak gov.
We can build virtual training simulations for denied sites into a game environment simulator in a week.

Bob's World

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 1:41pm

Carl

While I feel for your "strained credibiliity" you misstate my words and miss my point.

I have said that the populace that suppports the Taliban is the primary source of AQ sanctuary, and that the one organization best positioned to evict AQ from Pakistan is the Taliban and not the government there (or any subset of that government as you so love to attribute for all things Pakistan that serve to irk Americans or run counter to US interests as we currently see them).

As to Mr. bin Laden himself, he is but one member of AQ and presumably not a very active one for very important reasons that we can all appreciate. To lead actively would put his organization at risk, as well as himself. Were any Pakistani officials aware of his location? Perhaps, as I have said, these are very comptent people and they have a keen sense of what their interests are and are willing to aggravate the US in the pursuit of them. But such speculation is of little value.

No, I stand by my assessment of AQ sanctuary and the Taliban. Our problems with Pakistan are far more in what we ask them to do than in what they actually do. Perhaps we should change the nature of our requests and reassess our own interests in the region and how they might more effectively be achieved than the course we have pursued for some 10 years now.

My point that bin Laden could hide virtually anywhere is important. That is not a stretch or strain of credibility, that is fact.

There is no need for the US to "secure" the FATA, or force Pakistan to clear it of all threats to US interests. Such an idea is folly. It is the same logic that sent members of the 101st repeatedly up hamburger hill. It is the same logic that shapes our "Clear-Hold-Build" operations in various corners of Afghanistan while the primary drivers of insurgency lay unaddressed in Kabul.

Getting bin Laden is a victory. But we should be careful what we read into that victory.

omarali50

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 1:40pm

Carl, in the proverbial long-term, it doesnt matter what the deal was. If GHQ coughed him up because they are on the road to decoupling from all jihadis or they coughed him up in exchange for "free hand in Afghanistan" (meaning they get to keep the "good taliban") is all the same in the end. Its the path to the end that will change.
If they made a deal and got Afghanistan in return, then they will rue this day not too far in the future. If some would-be adventurer in the PLA is thinking of taking over policing duties from the CIA, they are welcome to it. Afghanistan is not theirs to manage as they see fit. It will be an endless war and one day they will be fighting the good taliban as surely and as ineptly as they are fighting the bad ones today.
The Islamist-jihadi project is not compatible with peaceful coexistence in a world dominated by infidels. I would not be surprised if one day we see the indo-tibetan border police helping GHQ save their best housing colonies from the jihadis. IF GHQ was more proactive (or maybe, as Robert sahib says, its a matter of capacity, not intent) they might have taken the medicine early on and avoided nasty chemotherapy in the later stages. But one way or the other, they will take the medicine. If not from Dr Sam, then from Dr Ching. There is no future for Jihadistan.

shams (not verified)

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 1:27pm

Omar is a naif too.
Pasha sold OBL to the americans last month in his meet with Panetta.
Know why?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13179763

The Arab Spring is advancing on Pakistan.
That has to be the biggest worry for both the US and their Pak poodles.
;)

Karachi, March 24: Pakistani demonstrators have rallied against unauthorized US drone attacks on the Afghan-Pakistani border amid ongoing instability in the country's tribal regions.

At least 800 activists of Pukhtoon Students Federation (PSF), along with local tribesmen, gathered in the city of Dera Ismail Khan in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province to condemn the attacks on the northwestern Waziristan region that have claimed hundreds of lives so far,

A US drone attack on Datta Khel in North Waziristan claimed the lives of 44 people last Thursday.

The angry protesters said the attacks were an open violation of international human rights. They burned the American flag as well as an effigy of US President Barack Obama.

Elsewhere in Wana, the largest town of South Waziristan Agency, tribesmen held demonstrations, carrying banners and placards with anti-US slogans on them.

The demonstrators called on the government to try those responsible for the bombings of innocent civilians.

Waziristan is said to be home to a number of militant groups whose operations mainly include attacking US and NATO forces in neighboring Afghanistan.

Pakistan has slammed the US unauthorized strikes and considers them a violation of its sovereignty.

carl (not verified)

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 1:09pm

Robert C. Jones:

In view of the place where Mr. OBL was found, I view with greater skepticism than ever your contentions that he was shielded by Taliban & co.

The Pak Army/ISI fellows are an impressive bunch. They've pulled the wool over our eyes with great facility for years.

Your contention that nothing is to be made from the location of Mr. OBL's hideout because he could just as easily hidden in Trump Tower, strains credulity to say the least.

Bob's World

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 1:00pm

Pakistan is fighting to make Pakistan safe. I don't have a problem with that, but don't mischaracterize it as something more. They lack both the intent and the capacity for it to be more. I will say though, that I have always walked away impressed from any meeting with Pak Army leadership.

Similarly, much of what the US paints as making the world safe is really about making America safe. This is the type of wordsmanship that states engage in.

As to bin laden being near military facilities, where better to hide? He could just as easy been a few blocks from the White House or Ground Zero; or living in Trump Tower. Sanctuary is a funny thing, and it isn't "ungoverned space."

Babar (not verified)

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 12:51pm

Wot a great joke robbert written in this Article that the United States kept the raid completely concealed from the Pakistani government, mightbe he doesnt know that US is nothing in War against Terrorism without Pakistani Govt's Intelligence Sharing. I dont know why American people thinking with a short mind, Pakistan, Pakistani Government and Pakistan Army(the fifth Largest Army in world) has made lot of sacrifices in American's So called war against Terrorism and now American racist media is trying to start a propaganda campaign against Pakistani Govt and Pakistan Army. Why they dont believe that they are surviving in Afghanistan just with the Collaboration of Pakistan Army and Pakistan's Intelligence Sharing. Just remember one thing, Osama bin Ladan is dead because of Pakistani Agencies, just realize the realities dude. US Army cant attack on Pakistani sovereignty and how is this possible they can attack in middle of settled city by concealing this raid from Pakistani Govt or Pakistan Army. Be a Good man and admit the sacrifices of Pakistan Govt, Pakistan Army and Pakistani People. They are fighting to make this world safe.
God Bless Pakistan
Long Live Pakistan