Surge Not Answer in Afghanistan
Michael VIckers, the principal strategist for the paramilitary operation that drove the Soviet army out of Afghanistan in the 1980s and today the top Pentagon adviser on counterterrorism strategy (ASD SOLIC), says the key to success in Iraq and Afghanistan is through “the indirect approach” – working “by, with and through” host-nation forces — rather than “surges” of U.S. troops according to an article in Army Times – Surge not answer in Afghanistan – by Sean Naylor.
“Insurgencies have to be won by local capacity,” Mike Vickers, the assistant secretary of defense for special operations/low intensity conflict and interdependent capabilities, told a group of defense reporters in Washington on Feb. 6.
Because “it typically takes a decade or more” to achieve victory in a counterinsurgency, Vickers said, “a key measure of success” for the “supporting country” – in this case, the U.S. – is whether domestic political support for the mission can be sustained for such an extended period.
“Over the longer haul, I still believe that the indirect approach … irrespective of force levels, is the way we will ultimately succeed [in Iraq],” he said, in answer to a question on reports that he had initially counseled against last year’s “surge” of U.S. forces into Iraq.
Naylor, while acknowledging Vickers did not address a recent report by the American Enterprise Institute’s Afghanistan Planning Group by name, described the remarks as pouring cold water on AEI’s recommendation for an Iraq-like surge for Afghanistan.
Those recommentations (via Army Times) included:
– Deploying an extra U.S. brigade into Kandahar and a Marine battalion into Helmand in 2008 and maintaining that force level through 2009.
– Deploying two extra brigade combat teams into southern Afghanistan in 2009.
– Expanding the Afghan National Army more quickly than currently planned.
– Providing NATO forces in southern Afghanistan, where the Taliban are strongest, with the necessary “enablers” such as engineers, aviation, surveillance and command and control assets.
– Using Commander’s Emergency Response Program money to build forward operating bases for Afghan National Army units in eastern and southern Afghanistan.
More on Vicker’s remarks:
He acknowledged that “the insurgency has certainly picked up in Afghanistan the past couple of years, and the link with narcotics is a major challenge,” but added that he is “still very optimistic about the long haul in Afghanistan.”
However, Vickers appeared sympathetic to one AEI recommendation: to grow the Afghan National Army more quickly than called for under current plans.
More here.
Vickers vs. Kagan: The Afghan Rematch – Westhawk
Lingering Arguments for the Small Footprint Model of Counterinsurgency – Herschel Smith, The Captain’s Journal
Discuss at Small Wars Council.
