News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. N.K. leader made least number of public appearances in first half of year: report
2. U.S. indirectly supports leaflets sent to N. Korea
3. Unification ministry to inspect dozens of activist groups over N.K. leafleting
4. Seoul's leaflet crackdown faces backlash from rights advocates
5. Moon's new security team may have limits in engaging North Korea
6. Moon asks lawmakers to 'institutionalize' inter-Korean summit accords
7. Great-Power Problems Persist on the Korean Peninsula
8. S. Korea approved 16 cases of aid plans to N. Korea in H1: official
9. S. Korea trade minister outlines vision to rebuild trust in WTO
10. If you want peace, prepare for peace by Moon Chung-in
11. North Korean Teen Selected to Train as Kim Jong Un's Bodyguard Allegedly Kills Own Father
12. Trump said he didn't like dealing with Moon, that S. Koreans were 'terrible': governor
13. Moon joins other leaders calling for equal access to Covid-19 vaccine
14. Researchers: North Korea developing arsenal to evade missile defenses
15. Why We Need a Regional Approach for Crisis Management with North Korea
16. 'I escaped the horrors of North Korea twice and now have a new life in Manchester'
17. Kimchi protects against COVID-19, a study says
18. Gov't revokes operation permits for 2 N.K. defector groups over leafleting
19. S. Korea reiterates vow to crack down on anti-Pyongyang leaflets
20. S. Korean assembly speaker proposes peace talks with N. Korean counterpart
21. N.Korea's Sub-Launched Missiles 'Could Disable THAAD'
22. Time for America to Listen to Moon Chung-In
1. N.K. leader made least number of public appearances in first half of year: report
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 16, 2020
Yes, Kim fears the coronavirus. He has been hiding out while the Korean people in the north suffer from both the effects of coronavirus as well as the draconian population and resources control measures to try to prevent the spread. I would make sure the Korean people know this.
2. U.S. indirectly supports leaflets sent to N. Korea
Excellent statement by the State Department spokesman. We (and I speak of the royal "we" the ROK/US alliance) should use all means available to get information into north Korea and inform the Korean people in the north about the outside and about their human rights are not respected by the Kim family regime.
And yes the escapees (defectors) from the north should be protected and supported as Suzanne Scholte states below and in her letter to President Moon.
3. Unification ministry to inspect dozens of activist groups over N.K. leafleting
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 16, 2020
This is terribly sad. The Unification Ministry should be ashamed.
4. Seoul's leaflet crackdown faces backlash from rights advocates
koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · July 16, 2020
Unfortunately we must put pressure on our ally to stop this terrible action. And we have to support the international community in putting pressure on the Moon administration. I do not know what we can do to the Korean government to do the right thing. How can we make them understand what needs to be done?
5. Moon's new security team may have limits in engaging North Korea
The Korea Times · July 16, 2020
As we have seen in other reports the north is pleased with these appointments.
However, I think some of the comments in this article are important and likely accurate. Regardless of the gambits by the Moon administration, even the appointment of officials whom the regime deems favorable, the north is unlikely to respond favorably to the South's attempts at engagement unless the regime can extort money from the South. But this is a different time than the Sunshine Policy period because UN and US sanctions are much stronger and are part of what Park Won-gon calls structural limitations.
Regarding the revamping of the ROK/US strategy working group by Unification Minister Park we should keep in mind the working group is between the State Department and the Ministry of Foriegn Affairs. While the MOU is invited to participate it is not in charge of the working group. I believe Special Representative Lee do-hoon and Foriegn Minister Kang both know the importance of the working group and that it does not hinder ROK engagement.
The bottom line is the only person who is hindering ROK engagement is Kim Jong-un.
6. Moon asks lawmakers to 'institutionalize' inter-Korean summit accords
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · July 16, 2020
INTRA-Korean. It is one Korea.
I think for President Moon it is peace at any cost. And that cost could be very high.
But this proposal seems like a fantasy: "He also expressed hope that inter-Korean parliamentary talks will take place before the four-year term of the newly elected lawmakers ends." What "parliamentary" organization from the north would participate? The Politburo? I wonder if they would propose hosting it at the South Korean National Assembly building as I believe they built a chamber to support a unified Korea. But I doubt the north would ever agree to such an event.
This statement by President Moon sounds good: "If the two Koreas cooperate on the basis of trust, it would benefit both of them"; however, it rests on the erroneous assumption that the north wants peace the same as the South. It assumes that Kim Jong-un will engage and negotiate in good faith as a responsible member of the international community. These erroneous assumptions require a change in strategy. Unfortunately the Moon administration is doubling down on a strategy based on false assumptions.
7. Great-Power Problems Persist on the Korean Peninsula
The National Interest · by Yun Sun · July 15, 2020
I agree that the only way there will be dramatic change on the Korean peninsula is if there is a change in leadership in the north. If there is internal regime change in the north it does not necessarily mean it will fall under Chinese control.
8. S. Korea approved 16 cases of aid plans to N. Korea in H1: official
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 16, 2020
9. S. Korea trade minister outlines vision to rebuild trust in WTO
en.yna.co.kr · by 이준승 · July 16, 2020
It will be interesting to see if she can be selected. I am not knowledgeable about trade issues and disputes but her vision seems sound. I wonder what trade experts think about it.
10. If you want peace, prepare for peace by Moon Chung-in
Hankyoreh· by Moon Chung-in · July 16, 2020
A thoroughly idealistic but totally naive view from one of President Moon's closest advisors. It is thinking like his that is dangerous for the Republic of Korea.
My thoughts:
* I support peace on the Korean peninsula
* I support a diplomatic solution to the north Korean nuclear threat
* I support ROK engagement with the north
* I do not support a weakening of the ROK and ROK/US defensive capabilities
* I believe there cannot be success for US, ROK, and Japanese interests without strong ROK/US and Japan/US alliances
* Despite the above I think we have to accept that north Korea may have a continued hostile strategy and therefore while we prioritize diplomacy we have to remain prepared for the worst cases. I hope I am wrong here and that Kim Jong-un will dismantle his nuclear weapons and seek peaceful coexistence and peaceful unification. But I fear that my hope is in vain.
As Sun Tzu said, "Never assume your enemy will not attack. Make yourself invincible."
"To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace."
George Washington
11. North Korean Teen Selected to Train as Kim Jong Un's Bodyguard Allegedly Kills Own Father
rfa.org· July 15, 2020
There is more to this than the headline. Note how young the boy was when selected for Department 5. Note also how the local party will likely be held accountable.
12. Trump said he didn't like dealing with Moon, that S. Koreans were 'terrible': governor
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · July 17, 2020
This is not good for the alliance.
Here is the OP-ED to his Washington Post OpEd.
He could have saved a few words on the OpEd if he had left this story out but then it would not have been as sensational.
13. Moon joins other leaders calling for equal access to Covid-19 vaccine
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Sarah Kim· July 17, 2020
14. Researchers: North Korea developing arsenal to evade missile defenses
upi.com· July 16, 2020
Here is the link to the Congressional Research Service report, "North Korea's Nuclear Weapons and Missile Programs:"
15. Why We Need a Regional Approach for Crisis Management with North Korea
apcss.org · by APCSS Editor · July 15, 2020
The 8 page report can be downloaded here.
16. 'I escaped the horrors of North Korea twice and now have a new life in Manchester'
Mirror · by Chris Kitching · July 16, 2020
We must not forget the Korean people in the north who are suffering and have suffered their whole lives. They suffer for one reason: the evil nature of the Kim family regime
17. Kimchi protects against COVID-19, a study says
donga.com· July 16, 2020
I thought this was from KCNA at first. I guess we are going to have to eat more Kimchi.
18. Gov't revokes operation permits for 2 N.K. defector groups over leafleting
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 17, 2020
Extremely disappointing and shortsighted action. This will come back to haunt South Korea in the long run from a free speech, human rights, and unification perspective. South Korea will come under international criticism for this action.
19. S. Korea reiterates vow to crack down on anti-Pyongyang leaflets
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 17, 2020
This will not reduce tensions nor prevent the escalation of tensions. north Korea does not need this to conduct its blackmail diplomacy and use coercion and extortion to get its ways. The north just showed how it can coerce the South and the Moon administration has proved the point. Things will only get worse from here while the administration seeks to implement its peace strategy the regime will make more demands and continue to coerce the South in other ways. Why? Because South Korea has provided it is vulnerable to the north's coercion.
20. S. Korean assembly speaker proposes peace talks with N. Korean counterpart
en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · July 17, 2020
A yes the Supreme Peoples's Assembly. A very powerful organization (the term rubber stamp is probably used with this organization more than any other "legislative" body in the world. But we will see what Kim Jong-un does. Does anyone think he would allow this? Park Byeong-seug should demand that such talks be held in South Korea at its National Assembly building. Of course if Kim even decided to allow this (only if it will support his long con) he would make everyone come to Pyongyang to kowtow to the regime. I hear the Who singing "Won't Get Played Again." Nut no one is listening.
21. N.Korea's Sub-Launched Missiles 'Could Disable THAAD'
english.chosun.com· July 16, 2020
We should not misinterpret the CRS report here.
I do not think the report is saying the SLBMs are going to specifically attack THAAD. I think it is saying the north is trying to develop systems that cannot be detected and destroyed by THAAD or Patriot PAC-3. Of course they could use an SLBM to attack the THAAD battery but I think there are likely other strategic targets for it especially if they miniaturize a nuclear warhead and place it on an operational SLBM. The bottom line is the north wants to develop missiles systems that THAAD and Patriot cannot defeat. This is the challenge with missile defense. Once you develop a defense capability for a specific threat the adversary is going to try to develop a capability for which you have no defense rendering your current missile defense capability ineffective. To that end there is merit to ROK Kill Chain and the Japanese desire for a "first strike" offensive capability. It is best to attack the missile/launcher and all its supporting infrastructure before it can launch its missiles. This has long been an integral part of US planning to counter ballistic missiles: target the launcher, the potential launch sites, the refueling and remaring sites, the hide sites, and the storage sites (and production facilities as well). But none of these will prevent the north's first use unless there is an early political decision to conduct a preventative strike and that is unlikely to happen in democratic countries like the US, the ROK, and Japan. And even then to borrow from the old air power theorist the bomber (or missile) will always get through." (Douhet).
22. Time for America to Listen to Moon Chung-In
The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · July 16, 2020
Moon Chung-in is an appeaser. I suppose if you think we should end the alliance and remove troops from the peninsula you could listen to Moon (in 2018 he wrote there would be no justification for US troops if there was a peace agreement - https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-korea/2018-04-30/real-path-peace-korean-peninsula). He wrote this "What will happen to U.S. forces in South Korea if a peace treaty is signed? It will be difficult to justify their continuing presence in South Korea after its adoption." He must not be aware of the 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty that makes no mention of the north but only states the two countries will defend each other from threats in the region. The justification for continued presence of US troops after a peace treaty is one of mutual decision by both countries if each deem it in their national interests.
If you want to sacrifice South Korea to the north you could listen to Moon Chung-in. If you want South Korea to come under Chinese domination you could listen to Moon Chung-in. If you want to "give away the farm" (or billions of dollars) to north Korea in the naive hope that it will negotiate in good faith you could listen to Moon Chung-in. If you want to see the successful execution of Kim Jong-un's long con you can listen to Moon Chung-in. If you want conflict and war on the Korean peninsula you could listen to Moon Ching-in. Of course when war happens we can be sure Moon will be in the US with his son who is now an American citizen.
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Radical groups with distant goals could find comfort in an isolated purity, while those who tasted success saw the value of accommodating the views of others."
- Lawrence Freedman, Strategy: A History
"In Korea the Government forces, which were armed to prevent border raids and to preserve internal security, were attacked by invading forces from North Korea....The attack upon Korea makes it plain beyond all doubt that communism has passed beyond the use of subversion to conquer independent nations and will now use armed invasion and war." -President Harry Truman
"Foreknowledge cannot be gotten from ghosts and spirits, cannot be had by analogy, cannot be found out by calculation. It must be obtained from people, people who know the conditions of the enemy."
- Sun Tzu, The Art of War