After reading the Strategic Guidance released yesterday by the President and SECDEF, I was encouraged by it for the most part. While this is not to be confused with a strategy, there is guidance, so that is a good thing. Definitely calls for a leaner military, taking advantage of our technological edge (ironic in that was what Mr Rumsfeld intended as well). It does seem that there is a great desire to return to the pre-9/11 world, except now China is the focus of our efforts vice the Axis of Evil. The Air/Sea Battle concept is prevalent throughout, while not specifically mentioned in the document it is prominently between the lines in multiple places. This emphasis will protect and replenish the Air Force and Navy that have been neglected (in their minds) this last decade. This will come primarily at the expense of the Army, who can expect to go back to the NTC/JRTC pre-9/11 life. USMC will likely refocus as a maritime expeditionary force so as to take advantage of the Asia pivot and Air/Sea Battle concept.
For SOF I don't see much change, SF will have more manpower available after the draw downs to do more global engagement supporting TSOCS Engagement requirements, so a lot of FID and JCETs. There will be a challenge to maintain personnel standards given the shrinking recruiting base however. JSOC will continue to operate under 7500 in cooperation with CIA and drones and target HVT related to CT. They will have to blow the dust off of plans for counter WMD so DTRAs future looks strong. There will be above and below line engagement with Host Nation support for these operations, so may be opportunities there for SF as well as contracted support.
Driving this change is the Asia Pivot, so more focus on Asia, in particular China but not Korea oddly enough. India is mentioned as key partner but not Australia, another odd omission. CENTCOM will remain a focus due to Iran and WMD efforts, but that supports Air/Sea battle as well as that will drive development of new anti access environment (A2/AD) capabilities that haven't been needed the last ten years (primarily air/sea/cyber). EUCOM got a rather ominous warning order to prepare for force cuts, while SOUTHCOM and AFRICOM were mentioned as afterthoughts. So it will be no change for those areas, basically rhetoric about importance but no resources.
Cyber was mentioned rather heavily throughout, although no surprise there. Guidance is to improve domestic and Partner Nation capabilities. Interestingly, there was no mention of SOF, SOCOM or JSOC in the document. Now, there was plenty in there about maintaining ability to conduct current CT efforts against AQ as well as the need to support global engagement while working with Partner Nations, so that has JSOC and SF all over it. Just surprised that no mention.
Generating the most discussion are passages on IW, COIN, and Stability Ops. A bit contradicting as states DoD will maintain IW capability up front, then further in talks of only doing small scale stability operations after engagement. Even further along it more plainly states the DoD will not be structured for large scale COIN operations, yet that is followed by a small passage alluding to not killing COIN capability completely no matter how much want to as it may be needed again.
Confusing? Yep, although the Guidance specifically talking about reversibility (not quite sure what that is, I guess fixing an "oops" if future is different), but then states will rebuild areas that had been deemphasized the last decade (there is that Air/Sea again and ugly for IW).
So, what does all that mean? Two war concept as it is now is dead and all planners need to rescrub current CONPLANS taking into consideration limited Means, which isn't a bad thing at all. If anything, envisions fighting one limited ground war while using air power to deter/degrade other aggressor. We'll see. I do wonder if this means that Nagl's concept for Advisory and Assistance BCTs will survive. I doubt it because of the pending troop cuts as Army and USMC going back to pre-911 troop levels, which I don't think is a bad thing either.
Oh yeah, your health care and likely retirement benefits will be cut. Have a nice day.