The American Way of Irregular War: An Analytical Memoir

By LTG Charles Cleveland and Daniel Egel

https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA301-1.html

Dave Maxwell Commentary: 

There is no other "report" that identifies the essence of the problems we face and offers big ideas for solutions. (I put "report" in quotes because it is unlike any report and as noted it is an analytic memoir). Everyone who writes about these issues (most researchers. admire the problem — none have lived it). This report uses real world experience to tell the story (which is a key element here because the "case studies" tell the story and that is the best way to influence people — to see what is real and tangible rather than theoretical or some dry historical recounting). Furthermore those with some experience who write about these issues do not come close to the level of expertise in multiple theaters. There is no senior leader who has put this much intellectual sweat into analyzing the problems and recommending sound and concrete solutions. There is so much meat in this report to drive thinking and debate. Some may not like the recounting of some stories, some may not like the recommendations but all who read this will benefit. The perspective from the depth experience combined with the intellectual rigor ensures this report will make a significant contribution to the future study of the American Way of Irregular Warfare.

Source: Charles T. Cleveland and Daniel Egel, The American Way of Irregular War: An Analytical Memoir. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2020.  

 

Synopsis:

American irregular warfare is the United States' unique and, in recent times, troubled approach to conflict in which armed civilian or paramilitary forces, and not regular armies, are the primary combatants. In most forms, it emphasizes the importance of local partnerships and gaining legitimacy and influence among targeted populations. It is thus a critical capability in contests in which populations, rather than territory, are decisive.

This memoir explores the strengths and limitations of America's current irregular warfare capability and provides recommendations for what the United States must do to develop the world-class American way of irregular war it needs. This analysis is based on a detailed examination of Lieutenant General Charles T. Cleveland's career, the majority of which was spent with U.S. Special Forces, and his experiences in Europe during the Cold War, Bolivia, El Salvador, Operation Just Cause, Bosnia, and Operation Iraqi Freedom, as well as in command of 10th Special Forces Group, Special Operations Command South, Special Operations Command Central, and U.S. Army Special Operations Command.

The United States, despite the admirable performance of civilian and military tactical-level irregular warfare formations, has failed to achieve its strategic objectives in nearly every population-centric military campaign during the past 40 years. The memoir concludes that the reason for this consistent failure is that the United States lacks the concepts, doctrine, and canon necessary to be effective in population-centric conflicts and as a result is not well organized for irregular warfare.

In the wake of the coordination breakdown that led to the failed Operation Eagle Claw and the intelligence failure that led to September 11, action by Congress and the support of the President were needed to drive reforms. This memoir concludes that Congress and the President will need to act again. To provide a proactive defense against the irregular warfare campaigns of U.S. enemies and the necessary offensive potential to destabilize Great Power adversaries, the country must turn to, and not away from, the American way of irregular war.

Table of Contents

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Irregular Warfare and the Cold War in Europe

• Chapter Three

  Bolivia and the Department of Defense's Entry into the War on Drugs

• Chapter Four

  El Salvador and the Fight Against Communism in the Americas

• Chapter Five

  Panama and the Transition from Traditional to Irregular

• Chapter Six

  The Decade of Delusion and My Pentagon Wars

• Chapter Seven

  Peacekeeping in Bosnia and the Reemergence of Irregular Warfare

• Chapter Eight

  Unconventional Warfare in the War on Terror

• Chapter Nine

  Special Operations Campaigning in Latin America

• Chapter Ten

  At the Vanguard of American Irregular Warfare

• Chapter Eleven

  Shepherding America's Irregular Warfare Capability

• Chapter Twelve

  Key Observations

• Chapter Thirteen

  Recommendations

• Chapter Fourteen

  Conclusion

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

 

1. US to withdraw nearly 12,000 troops from Germany in move that will cost billions and take years

2. China has squandered its first great opportunity

3. The color of diplomacy: A U.S. diplomat on race and the foreign service

4. Trump's spite-Germany plan

5. Generals Shouldn't be welcome at these parties: stopping retired flag officer endorsements

6. Guam's air defense should learn lessons from Japan's Aegis Ashore

7. Putin's agents and cronies run amok in Britain

8. 'Generation Z' and foreign policy: Building a common vision of restraint in a divided era

9. Special Operations Command - Europe to move to Belgium | SOF News

10. Coronavirus surges in Asia bring warnings over complacency

11. Will Trump 'wag the dog' to win reelection?

12. Together, you can redeem the soul of our nation by John Lewis

13. Man who helped ignite George Floyd riots identified as white supremacist: Police

14. Opinion: Pompeo, a dire threat to America and world peace - Xinhua

15. Senate hearing for controversial Pentagon nominee Anthony Tata canceled just before it was set to begin

16. The future's biggest cybercrime threat may already be here

17. US Army cyber chief outlines ten-year plan for information warfare

18. Deepfakes: A grounded threat assessment

19. The economic costs of national security

20. A viral epidemic splintering into deadly pieces

 

1. US to withdraw nearly 12,000 troops from Germany in move that will cost billions and take years

CNN · by Ryan Browne and Zachary Cohen

It will be interesting to understand the strategic rationale and how this will improve our ability to support our national security and defense strategies. And will the improvement be worth the time, effort, and cost - cost in terms of billions as well as political costs?

Excerpt: 

Defense officials said that Secretary of Defense Mark Esper had directed that the repositioning seek to enhance deterrence against Russia, strengthen NATO, and support families of US service members.

I guess the key questions are how do these moves enhance deterrence of Russia? How does it strengthen NATO, and how does it support families?

HQ organizations aside, will the combat forces (if any) be stationed (or deployed for rotational units) in the vicinity of APOEs and SPOEs for rapid deployment?

2. China has squandered its first great opportunity

The Atlantic · by Richard Fontaine · July 30, 2020

But will China learn from this? (and more importantly will we?)

3. The color of diplomacy: A U.S. diplomat on race and the foreign service

warontherocks.com · by Kip Whittington · July 30, 2020

An important message especially the final two paragraphs.

4. Trump's spite-Germany plan

WSJ · July 29, 2020

Tough talk from the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board.

5. Generals Shouldn't be welcome at these parties: stopping retired flag officer endorsements

warontherocks.com · by Heidi Urben · July 27, 2020

6. Guam's air defense should learn lessons from Japan's Aegis Ashore

Defense News · by Timothy Walton, Bryan Clark · July 29, 2020

I think this is very useful analysis.

7. Putin's agents and cronies run amok in Britain

washingtontimes.com · by Clifford D. May

If Putin is doing this in the UK we can be sure he is doing this in the US. Cliff may ask the important question - does the arc of history bend toward democracy or does it bend toward strong men as the leaders of revisionist and rogue powers believe?

8. 'Generation Z' and foreign policy: Building a common vision of restraint in a divided era

realcleardefense.com · by Jake Mercier

Older war-weary Americans and detached Zoomers. A very idealistic conclusion.

If you build strategy and policy around a "negative" concept such as restraint I fear you are always going to be in a reactionary stance. Rather than a default of restraint I would like us to "do strategy" better and if we did do strategy better we might find ourselves more inclined to be restrained. Strategy is about priorities, assumptions, ways, and means and providing civilian decision makers options. But if the first (and only option) is restraint we will find ourselves unable to protect our interests.

9. Special Operations Command - Europe to move to Belgium | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · July 29, 2020

10. Coronavirus surges in Asia bring warnings over complacency

Reuters · by Colin Packham, Alasdair Pal · July 30, 2020

And I think international travel (less to North Korea) has to be contributing to this.

11. Will Trump 'wag the dog' to win reelection?

defenseone.com · by Charles A. Stevenson

I am not sending this with any partisan intent. This article provides a historical perspective to debunk the "wag the dog" myth.

Here is the link to the Congressional Research Service Report on Instances of Use of United States Armed

Forces Abroad, 1798-2020 

This 52-page report should be a very useful reference for researchers.

12. Together, you can redeem the soul of our nation by John Lewis

NYTimes

A powerful essay that we should reflect deeply upon.

13. Man who helped ignite George Floyd riots identified as white supremacist: Police

ABCNews.com

We are likely to see more and more subversion actions.

14. Opinion: Pompeo, a dire threat to America and world peace – Xinhua

xinhuanet.com

From a Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece Xinhua. Unsurprising criticism but it is pretty slick propaganda citing Richard Haas and invoking Goebbels. They criticize him for Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea and of course the obvious attacks on China to include the blames of the Wuhan Coronavirus which was the name the Chinese Global Times and Xinhua used to describe it on January 23 until they realized it made them look bad.

15. Senate hearing for controversial Pentagon nominee Anthony Tata canceled just before it was set to begin

The Washington Post · by Dan Lamothe and Seung Min Kim · July 30, 2020

An interesting last minute development.

16. The future's biggest cybercrime threat may already be here

darkreading.com

The future is here and we are all vulnerable and will be affected by this. The key point: "We are the targets."

17. US Army cyber chief outlines ten-year plan for information warfare

c4isrnet.com · by Mark Pomerleau · July 28, 2020

A new name for the command?   My question with everything surrounding these organizations and emerging concepts is what is their relationship with the discipline of psychological operations and psychological operations forces?

18. Deepfakes: A grounded threat assessment

cset.georgetown.edu · by Tim Hwang

The entire 50-page report can be downloaded here. 

19. The economic costs of national security

project-syndicate.org · by Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng · July 29, 2020

The economic instrument of power is key to national security. But based on the reports coming out this morning our economy is not doing so well.

20. A viral epidemic splintering into deadly pieces

The New York Times · by Donald G. McNeil Jr. · July 29, 2020

Very depressing and scary analysis.

 

-----------

"We rest our hopes too much upon constitutions, upon laws, and upon courts. These are false hopes; believe me, these are false hopes. Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can save it; no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it." 

- Judge Learned Hand

 

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination."  

- Andrew Lang (1844-1912)

 

"It's part of a writer's profession, as it's part of a spy's profession, to prey on the community to which he's attached, to take away information - often in secret - and to translate that into intelligence for his masters, whether it's his readership or his spy masters. And I think that both professions are perhaps rather lonely."

- John le Carre 

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

 

1. N.K. media says scaled-down joint exercise shows S. Korea-U.S. alliance is an 'illusion'

2. 'USFK's ground warfare capability requirement will be reduced,' says U.S. report

3.  This Democratic-Republican duo wants to solve the Korean War once and for all

4.  North Korea's emergency measures suggest possible COVID outbreak

5.  Moon Jae-in wants improved ties with North Korea but his two new point men have checkered pasts

6.  North Korea-linked hackers are now spreading their own ransomware

7. North Korean defector 'shocked' by kindness, racial diversity of US

8. Did Kim Jong Un just bury Trump's nuclear diplomacy?

9. China and N. Korea fears: Why experts warned volcano on border 'could be ready to erupt'

10. North Korean women suffer 'gender-specific' abuses, new UN report says

11. U.S. envoy for defense cost talks appointed as Arctic region coordinator

12. Trump says U.S. pulling out troops from Germany because he doesn't want to be 'sucker'

13. N. Korea launched ship-based missile in early July as part of regular summertime exercise: officials

14. New virus cases dip to over 1-month low of 18 on slowing imported cases (South Korea)

15. Runaway N. Korean defector unlikely to have contracted coronavirus: KCDC

16. New unification minister renews willingness to work with N. Korea to tackle coronavirus

17. N. Korea's No. 2 leader visits Kaesong after lockdown amid virus fear

18. 'New missile guideline to help OPCON transition'

19. N. Korean Christians facing starvation as regime bans cash aid to defectors' families amid COVID-19

20. U.N. experts warn Venezuela it could be in breach of North Korea sanctions -documents

 

1. N.K. media says scaled-down joint exercise shows S. Korea-U.S. alliance is an 'illusion'

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 30, 2020

For anyone who thinks our cancelation, postponement, or scaling back of ROK/US Combined Forces Command exercises will generate a positive response from north Korea, this is another indication of the regime's true intent. For two years we have "tested" Kim Jong-un and he has been found wanting. We have cancelled exercises as the North has demanded. We offered working level negotiations time and time again and Kim Jong-un has refused. South Korea negotiated a Comprehensive Military Agreement and provided a number of trust building measures that were not reciprocated. The North's demand for an end to the US "hostile policy" as the North calls it, is an end to the ROK/US Alliance, removal of US troops, and an end to extended deterrence and the nuclear umbrella over the ROK and Japan. We should understand the true nature of the regime and its objectives and strategy.

2. 'USFK's ground warfare capability requirement will be reduced,' says U.S. report

donga.com · July 30, 2020

What is important to understand this very comprehensive (and well done) report on INDOPACOM is an academic study that is not policy nor approved strategy. It is an academic exercise. Yes it will be considered by the Pentagon but our Korean counterparts should not over interpret this.

3.  This Democratic-Republican duo wants to solve the Korean War once and for all

The National Interest · by Matthew Petti · July 29, 2020

One of the interesting things about Korea is that it is one of the most bi-partisan issues and that is almost always a very positive thing. But not in this case.

With all due respect to these two Congressmen, they are pursuing a dangerous path. I will repeat my previous comments from yesterday. I hope someone can inform these Congressman and give them a different view than the one they are getting from a number of organizations that can best be described as appeasers of North Korea.

To reiterate:

Let me be frank: The bottom line is thinking along the lines of Congressman Khanna and those who are influencing him demonstrates a lack of understanding of the true nature of the Kim family regime, its strategy and objectives, and the history of north-South and north-US relations.   

First let me preface this with the following which is my standard caveat:
I support peace on the Korean peninsula
I support a diplomatic solution to the North Korean nuclear threat
I support ROK engagement with the North
I do not support a weakening of the ROK and ROK/US defensive capabilities
I believe there cannot be success for US, ROK, and Japanese interests without strong ROK/US and Japan/US alliances
Despite the above I think we have to accept that North Korea does have a continued hostile strategy and therefore while we prioritize diplomacy we have to remain prepared for the worst cases. I hope I am wrong here and that Kim Jong-un will dismantle his nuclear weapons and seek peaceful co-existence.

There are many issues to address. First is a peace treaty should be between the two belligerents: the North and South. The US did not declare war on the North. It fought under the UN authorizations which declared the North the aggressor and called on member nations to defend freedom in the South, per UN Security Council Resolutions 82 ,83, 84, and 85.

Second, a declaration of the end of the war or any kind of "peace mechanism" or "peace regime" that does not resolve the "Korea question" (para. 60 of the Armistice) will not bring peace and stability to the peninsula.

Third, the objective of North Korea is to dominate the entire Korean Peninsula. The regime strategy is based on subversion, coercion, extortion, and use of force to achieve unification on its terms to ensure regime survival. It is a zero sum situation for the North and it is not going to capitulate or peacefully co-exist with the South.

Fourth, those who advocate for a peace regime are actually "carrying the water" for Kim Jong-un because he is playing the long con and executing a political warfare strategy with Juche characteristics to achieve his objective to dominate the South. A peace regime is the first step in his plan to get US forces off the Korean Peninsula. This will also include disestablishing the UN Command as well.

We should never forget that the strongest deterrent of an attack by the North is the presence of US forces. If we go down the path the Congressman and others advocate, we will have conflict on the Korean Peninsula with a scale of loss of blood and treasure and suffering we have not seen since the Armistice was signed in 1953.

Lastly I think people should be cautious when dealing with organizations such as Women Cross DMZ due to connections to north Korean intelligence handlers in New York, e.g., Pak Chol and the United Front Department. https://freekorea.us/2019/11/christine-ahn-pak-chol-and-the-united-front-department/

4.  North Korea's emergency measures suggest possible COVID outbreak

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com 

I think we should have little doubt there is an outbreak in North Korea and it is not the result of the defector who returned.

5.  Moon Jae-in wants improved ties with North Korea but his two new point men have checkered pasts

SCMP · July 30, 2020

His new national security team is an indication President Moon wants to double down on his peace strategy and maximum engagement with North Korea. Our two Congressmen who are pursuing the peace agreement should understand this and the long time ties members of the Moon administration have with North Korea.  I fear they will not get an understanding of the true nature of the Kim family regime and its objectives and strategy from this team.

Most important to understand is Kim does not want improved ties with the South. He wants to play his long con against the South.

6.  North Korea-linked hackers are now spreading their own ransomware

Forbes · by Lee Mathews · July 29, 2020

North Korea’s all-purpose sword.

7. North Korean defector 'shocked' by kindness, racial diversity of US

foxnews.com · by @calebparke

So much to undo in the minds of Koreans living in the North.

8. Did Kim Jong Un just bury Trump's nuclear diplomacy?

Washington Examiner · by Tom Rogan · July 29, 2020

But it should be clear that the failure of diplomacy is Kim's failure to make the right strategic choices. Excerpt for lifting sanctions (which would be the worst strategic mistake because it will set back relations decades and not improve them as the apologists and appeasers hope) the Trump administration has extended opportunity after opportunity  for working level negotiations , engagement, and to allow the North to act as a responsible member of the international community. It refuses to do so. Any and all failures on the Korean peninsula rest on Kim Jong-un's decision making.

9. China and N. Korea fears: Why experts warned volcano on border 'could be ready to erupt'

Express · by Callum Hoare · July 29, 2020

North Korea does not need another natural disaster.

10. North Korean women suffer 'gender-specific' abuses, new UN report says

nknews.org · by Terrence Matsuo · July 29, 2020

Comments from Olivia Enos, Greg Scarlatoiu, and me below.

11. U.S. envoy for defense cost talks appointed as Arctic region coordinator

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · July 30, 2020

There has to be a meme in this - South Korean negotiations then to the Arctic? I suppose this is a move. Afterall the arctic is at the top of the world. (please excuse my attempt at humor. I have great respect for Mr. DeHart who had an absolutely thankless job trying to negotiate with South Korea given the current political conditions.).

12. Trump says U.S. pulling out troops from Germany because he doesn't want to be 'sucker'

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · July 30, 2020

Of course Korea is watching this very closely and will analyze every move we make with regard to troop withdrawals from anywhere.

But I guess no one can convince the President that we have forward stationed troops to serve US interests first and foremost. He seems to only view alliance as transactional. I do feel for his advisors who view our actions through the lens of national interest and strategy versus a transactional relationship.

13. N. Korea launched ship-based missile in early July as part of regular summertime exercise: officials

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · July 30, 2020

Why does no one complain about North Korea's summer training exercises (and it's Winter Training Cycle)? Despite our cancellation, postponement, and scaling back our exercises the North continues to conduct its exercises unabated. He has complied with almost no confidence building measures in the Comprehensive Military Agreement with South Korea.

14. New virus cases dip to over 1-month low of 18 on slowing imported cases (South Korea)

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · July 30, 2020

Some good news that I hope will continue. But based on recent history and other reporting in Asia I fear there will continue to be ups and downs.

15. Runaway N. Korean defector unlikely to have contracted coronavirus: KCDC

en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · July 30, 2020

I am sure this is the case. But it will not stop the regime from exploiting it. The more we think about this the more we have to wonder if this defector was an agent who was called back for a purpose. I will bet NK intelligence knew about the criminal charges against him so this made a perfect opportunity to conduct an operation to discredit and blame the South for the coronavirus outbreak that is already happening.

How many North Koreans have the ability to conduct an infiltration operation? Crossing the Han River Estuary once could be luck. Twice seems to indicate training and skill.

16. New unification minister renews willingness to work with N. Korea to tackle coronavirus

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 30, 2020

Exactly what the regime wants. Of course it is the right thing to do. But the regime had to engineer a scenario that was politically acceptable in the North. So now when the South does the right thing to help the Korean people in the North, the perception in the North is they are doing it because they are to blame for the outbreak and Kim Jong-un has demanded that they help solve the problem they caused.

17. N. Korea's No. 2 leader visits Kaesong after lockdown amid virus fear

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 30, 2020

Being called "Number 2" is a dangerous job in North Korea (ask Jang Song-taek). There can be no actual number 2. "There can be only one." So said Kim Jong-un, the Korean highlander.

18. 'New missile guideline to help OPCON transition'

The Korea Times · July 30, 2020

Terrence Roehrig makes an important point. With OPCON transition and the call for South Korea to develop more independent warfighting capabilities the US has a difficult time saying no to South Korean requests to change the guidelines.

19. N. Korean Christians facing starvation as regime bans cash aid to defectors' families amid COVID-19

christianpost.com · by Leah MarieAnn Klett · July 29, 2020

It is hard to fathom that Pyongyang was once called the "Jerusalem of the East" and the Presbyterian missionaries ministered to Kim Il-sung's families. But religion will be one of the most important elements in the unification process because the Koreans in the North will need to turn to faith to replace the Juche ideological indoctrination when they learn North Korea was built on myths and lies. Religious groups will have some of the largest impact on the unification process and many are already doing the Lord's work trying to get information into the North as well as helping to get people out.

20. U.N. experts warn Venezuela it could be in breach of North Korea sanctions-documents

Reuters · by Luc Cohen, Michelle Nichols5 Min Read · July 28, 2020

Venezuela and North Korea. Military and technical agreements. Hmmm… No mention of it but I am sure the North would like some of Venezuela’s oil. 

 

 

-----------

"We rest our hopes too much upon constitutions, upon laws, and upon courts. These are false hopes; believe me, these are false hopes. Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can save it; no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it." 

- Judge Learned Hand

 

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination."  

- Andrew Lang (1844-1912)

 

"It's part of a writer's profession, as it's part of a spy's profession, to prey on the community to which he's attached, to take away information - often in secret - and to translate that into intelligence for his masters, whether it's his readership or his spy masters. And I think that both professions are perhaps rather lonely."

- John le Carre 

 

Whose Story Wins: Rise of the Noosphere, Noopolitik, and Information-Age Statecraft

RAND analysts David Ronfeldt and John Arquilla have released a new monograph, Whose Story Wins: Rise of the Noosphere, Noopolitik, and Information-Age Statecraft on their concept of noopolitik as a way forward for US grand strategy.  Ronfeldt and Arquilla are veteran strategic analysts known for their works on information strategic and network theory.  Their significant works include The Emergence of Noopolitik: Toward an American Information Strategy (1999) and Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy (2001).

The authors urge strategists to consider a new concept for adapting US grand strategy to the information age—noopolitik, which favors the use of ‘soft power’ —as a successor to realpolitik, with its emphasis on ‘hard power.’  The authors examine how US adversaries are already deploying dark forms of noopolitik— essentially ‘weaponized’ narratives, along with strategic deception, and epistemic attacks—against the United States.  They then propose ways to fight back, discussing how the future of noopolitik is dependent on the state of the ‘global commons.  The noosphere, in their formulation is a ‘realm of the mind’ and ‘thinking circuit’ that favors collective intelligence.  As the noosphere expands, it will supplant realpolitik strategies with noopolitik.  Thus, the decisive factor in statecraft and the wars of today and tomorrow are wars of ideas where success is bound to be ‘whose story wins.’  This decisive role of ideas is the essence of noopolitik.

Source: David Ronfeldt and John Arquilla, Whose Story Wins: Rise of the Noosphere, Noopolitik, and Information-Age Statecraft. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2020, https://doi.org/10.7249/PEA237-1.

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

 

1. 1 big thing: China's consulates do a lot more than spy

2. Beijing hard-liners kick against Xi Jinping's wolf warrior diplomacy

3. Has the wind changed? PLA hawks General DAI Xu and General QIAO Liang release odd articles

4. Australia asserts to US: 'We don't agree on everything'

5. Mystery seeds from China are landing in Americans' mail boxes

6. We need a better China policy in the Middle East

7. How to hide from a drone – the subtle art of ‘ghosting’ in the age of surveillance

8. Inkstone explains: Who are the 92 million Chinese Communist Party members?

9. Oh God, not the Peloponnesian War again

10. Graduate school as a mission, not a reward

11. To keep up with our competitors, America must boost shipbuilding

12. Sacrifice and security: A pandemic’s lessons on building 'consent' as an element of strategy

13. Three urgent questions for the Air Force’s new Chief of Staff

14. Will Japan pursue a strike capability in lieu of Aegis ashore?

 

1. 1 big thing: China's consulates do a lot more than spy

Axios

Some important insights into what China does, especially with student groups, political involvement, and Chinese citizens and Uighurs.

2. Beijing hard-liners kick against Xi Jinping's wolf warrior diplomacy

lowyinstitute.org · by Richard McGregor

Again I have mentioned this but Richard MacGregor's book, The Party, is still very useful despite being a decade old.

3. Has the wind changed? PLA hawks General DAI Xu and General QIAO Liang release odd articles

gnews.org · July 12, 2020

Everyone should read or re-read Unrestricted Warfare. But the last line of the introduction (MIles' comments) is fascinating: "Nobody can dispute the fact that the CCP is collapsing and perishing." I am sure there is somebody who will dispute this.  Is that Miles' assessment of does he think General Qiao is making us think this? If so then it must be part of a political warfare strategy and it is the message he wants us to have. And of course the four unexpected things and "ten understandings" are interesting. (the ten understandings make me think someone wants to be like Mao).

4. Australia asserts to US: 'We don't agree on everything'

9news.com.au

Nor should allies agree on everything. National interests always come first.

5. Mystery seeds from China are landing in Americans' mail boxes

CBS News

More on the mystery seeds, just a scam? But whatever you do not plant them.

6. We need a better China policy in the Middle East

defenseone.com · by Bilal Y. Saab and Joseph Votel 

This article begs the question in my mind, do our geographic combatant commands offer the best way to organize to deal with competition and threats? China is not restricted to the INDOPACOM AOR. We need Chinese expertise in CENTCOM and AFRICOM and SOUTHCOM, etc. Should we be geographically organized and focused or should be threat and global competition focused? As the authors note - it is all interconnected.

7. How to hide from a drone – the subtle art of ‘ghosting’ in the age of surveillance

theconversation.com · by Austin Choi-Fitzpatrick

A “public service announcement?”

8. Inkstone explains: Who are the 92 million Chinese Communist Party members?

inkstonenews.com · by Viola Zhou

You can also listen to this at the link below.

9. Oh God, not the Peloponnesian War again

Foreign Policy · by James Palmer · July 28, 2020

Whoa.  A slam on Thucydides? Fear, honor, and interest is timeless and cuts across all cultures.

But the author makes a good point even though as he notes eastern history is harder to access than western history. I do recommend reading about the Korean ironclads (turtle ships) and Admiral Yi Sun-shin.

10. Graduate school as a mission, not a reward

usni.org · by Lieutenant Thomas Krasnican, U.S. Navy · July 28, 2020

That is correct. But the anti-intellectual clique in the military views it not only as a reward but also as a negative "due to time away from muddy boots and troops."

11. To keep up with our competitors, America must boost shipbuilding

Defense News · by Sen. David Perdue · July 28, 2020

12. Sacrifice and security: A pandemic’s lessons on building 'consent' as an element of strategy

warontherocks.com · by Gregory A. Daddis · July 29, 2020

Is the war metaphor ill-chosen?

13. Three urgent questions for the Air Force’s new Chief of Staff

defenseone.com · by Mara E. Karlin and Jim Mitre

14. Will Japan pursue a strike capability in lieu of Aegis ashore?

thediplomat.com · July 28, 2020

It will be a political as well as strategic, military challenge. 

 

-----------

"In one way we think a great deal too much of the atomic bomb. "How are we to live in an atomic age?" I am tempted to reply: "Why, as you would have lived in the sixteenth century when the plague visited London almost every year, or as you would have lived in a Viking age when raiders from Scandinavia might land and cut your throat any night; or indeed, as you are already living in an age of cancer, an age of syphilis, an age of paralysis, an age of air raids, an age of railway accidents, an age of motor accidents."

 

In other words, do not let us begin by exaggerating the novelty of our situation. Believe me, dear sir or madam, you and all whom you love were already sentenced to death before the atomic bomb was invented: and quite a high percentage of us were going to die in unpleasant ways. We had, indeed, one very great advantage over our ancestors-anesthetics; but we have that still. It is perfectly ridiculous to go about whimpering and drawing long faces because the scientists have added one more chance of painful and premature death to a world which already bristled with such chances and in which death itself was not a chance at all, but a certainty.

 

This is the first point to be made: and the first action to be taken is to pull ourselves together. If we are all going to be destroyed by an atomic bomb, let that bomb when it comes find us doing sensible and human things-praying, working, teaching, reading, listening to music, bathing the children, playing tennis, chatting to our friends over a pint and a game of darts-not huddled together like frightened sheep and thinking about bombs. They may break our bodies (a microbe can do that) but they need not dominate our minds.

- C.S. Lewis "On Living in an Atomic Age" (1948)

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

 

1. Kim Jong Un is the patron saint of hilarious photos

2. Kim Jong Un says N. Korea is a nuclear state

3. N. Korea's nuclear state drive will just lead to self-destruction

4. Defector may be used in regime promotion

5. Gov't to review whether to request repatriation of defector accused of sexual assault

6. Cheong Wa Dae says no document exists on alleged money deal with N. Korea in 2000

7. Moon urges continued efforts for 'complete missile sovereignty'

8. Is North Korea's COVID-19 vaccine program a dangerous ruse?

9. North Korea tells foreigners in capital to follow rules amid coronavirus crackdown

10. North Korea ramps up preventive measures after first possible coronavirus infection

11. 'Unforgivable': Japan decries wartime sex slave statue likened to PM Shinzo Abe

12. FDD | Report Shows North Korean Cybercriminals Now Target Online Shoppers

13. From scandal to accusations of disloyalty, South Korea's new point men on North have dramatic past

14. North Korea's Yongbyon Nuclear Complex: Activity Around the UEP Suggests Ongoing Operations

15. Thousands of North Koreans ignore distancing at Kim celebration despite coronavirus case

16. South Korean lawsuit against Kim Jong-un's sister could spell doom for strained relation between two countries

17. The Transpartisan Case for Peace on the Korean Peninsula

18. Lazarus Group Shifts Gears with Custom Ransomware

19. Unification ministry to brief U.N. rapporteur on decision to probe activist groups over anti-N.K. leafleting

20. Using Cultural Diplomacy to Decouple North Korea from China

21. South Korea - Military guardhouse system to be abolished after 124 years

22. Long way to go for Yongsan Park

 

1. Kim Jong Un is the patron saint of hilarious photos

militarytimes · by J.D. Simkins  

Here is something lighter to start the day because the rest of the news will be so depressing. Perhaps KIm Jong-un will start trending on twitter. You have to access each of the 10 photos individually at the bottom of the page but some are of course hilarious.

2. Kim Jong Un says N. Korea is a nuclear state

donga.com · July 29, 2020

This is nothing new. The North's constitution says so as well. I am reminded of Dr. Bruce Bennett's characterization of North Korea: A non-compliant (NPT), unsafe, nuclear experimenter.

3.  N. Korea's nuclear state drive will just lead to self-destruction

donga.com · July 29, 2020

I just hope it does not destroy the South along with itself. Again as noted this is not new and the Editorial board recognizes this is in the North's constitution. Interesting they speculate this is aimed at the November election targeting both Trump and Biden. What I think Kim needs to know is that this and his actions will have no influence over voters. No American is going to change their vote based on what he says or does (except perhaps if he launches a war).

4. Defector may be used in regime promotion

The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo · July 29, 2020

Promotion? I think they mean propaganda. If he is treated and cured of coronavirus, we can be pretty sure he never was infected. And while he will be used and exploited for a period of time for propaganda purposes, this poor soul will likely never return to his family or friends and at best will be exiled to some far off county in the North and at worst he and his family (perhaps three generations) will spend the rest of their lives in a gulag.

5. Gov't to review whether to request repatriation of defector accused of sexual assault

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 29, 2020

Does the rule of law exist in North Korea? I think not. Rule by law, yes. But I doubt the regime will allow extradition of this person.

6. Cheong Wa Dae says no document exists on alleged money deal with N. Korea in 2000

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 29, 2020

They doth protest too much. I am pretty sure there is strong intelligence information that confirms what happened. Even the Nobel Peace Prize Committee was pissed after giving Kim Dae Jung the Nobel Peace Prize for the summit.

7. Moon urges continued efforts for 'complete missile sovereignty'

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · July 29, 2020

"Missile sovereignty?" I could not find that in my international relations reference book. But it is obvious what he means. But the irony is even if all restrictions were lifted the South would not develop a potent ballistic missile that could target all of North Korea) despite its kill chain concept and its massive punishment and retaliation plans) for fear of upsetting the regime and damaging the South's peace strategy. If we really wanted a maximum pressure campaign on the North we would help the South build a fully stock ballistic missile arsenal full of "sovereign missiles." That would show north Korea.

8. Is North Korea's COVID-19 vaccine program a dangerous ruse?

Politico · by Elizabeth Ralph · July 29, 2020

Very interesting analysis. This could be more than propaganda. We should not laugh this off. Certainly the regime wants to develop biological weapons and I believe intelligence assessments estimate they have a program (p.21  HERE)  And from a human rights perspective I worry about all the human testing that will be done on the prisoners in the gulags. The North does not need to use lab rats when it has a segment of the population that it considers less than human.

9. North Korea tells foreigners in capital to follow rules amid coronavirus crackdown

Reuters · July 29, 2020

Another indicator that there is likely an outbreak in the North.

10. North Korea ramps up preventive measures after first possible coronavirus infection

businesstoday.in · July 29, 2020

Yep. Human trials for a vaccine. Please remember those suffering in the gulags.

11. 'Unforgivable': Japan decries wartime sex slave statue likened to PM Shinzo Abe

The Guardian · by Justin McCurry · July 29, 2020

What is "unforgivable?" The stature or what happened to Korean women during WWII? This is quite a statue. But this will not be helpful in trying to move forward. It is obviously designed for the reaction it is having in Japan.

12. FDD | Report Shows North Korean Cybercriminals Now Target Online Shoppers

fdd.org · by Mathew Ha · July 28, 2020

Important analysis from my colleague Mathew Ha.

13. From scandal to accusations of disloyalty, South Korea's new point men on North have dramatic past

in.reuters.com · by Hyonhee Shin

This will not go quietly into the night for the Moon administration. The opposition will exploit this. And of course actual democracy advocates worry about the real harm pro-North views will have on the South's democracy. Many look at the crackdowns on individuals and news organizations (and the use of "libel laws") as based on pro-North views and are attacks on freedom of speech and freedom of the press and threats to democracy.

14. North Korea's Yongbyon Nuclear Complex: Activity Around the UEP Suggests Ongoing Operations

38north.org · by Peter Makowsky · July 28, 2020

Possibly enriching more uranium? I wonder what for?

15. Thousands of North Koreans ignore distancing at Kim celebration despite coronavirus case

Mirror · by Dave Burke · July 28, 2020

I am sure the all powerful Kim Jong-un blessed the participants and with his god-like power prevented them from being infected with the virus.

16. South Korean lawsuit against Kim Jong-un's sister could spell doom for strained relation between two countries

meaww.com

I doubt it. Of course the regime will use this for propaganda purposes but it will not doom the relationship (of course it is not on very good terms at the moment either). This should not dissuade the South from filing the suit. I think a public trial in absentia would be a great thing as they could lay out all the crimes of the Kim family regime. But I do not think that will be in the cards as long as the Moon administration is in office.

17. The Transpartisan Case for Peace on the Korean Peninsula

The American Conservative · by Jessica Lee

Let me be frank: The bottom line is thinking along the lines of Congressman Khanna and those who are influencing him demonstrates a lack of understanding of the true nature of the Kim family regime, its strategy and objectives, and the history of North-South and North-US relations.   

First let me preface this with the following which is my standard caveat:
I support peace on the Korean peninsula
I support a diplomatic solution to the North Korean nuclear threat
I support ROK engagement with the North
I do not support a weakening of the ROK and ROK/US defensive capabilities
I believe there cannot be success for US, ROK, and Japanese interests without strong ROK/US and Japan/US alliances.

Despite the above I think we have to accept that North Korea does have a continued hostile strategy and therefore while we prioritize diplomacy we have to remain prepared for the worst cases. I hope I am wrong here and that Kim Jong-un will dismantle his nuclear weapons and seek peaceful co-existence.

There are many issues to address. First is a peace treaty should be between the two belligerents: the North and South. The US did not declare war on the North. It fought under the UN authorizations which declared the North the aggressor and called on member nations to defend freedom in the South, per UN Security Council Resolutions 82 ,83, 84, and 85.

Second, a declaration of the end of the war or any kind of "peace mechanism" or "peace regime" that does not resolve the "Korea question" (para. 60 of the Armistice) will not bring peace and stability to the peninsula.

Third, the objective of North Korea is to dominate the entire Korean Peninsula. The regime strategy is based on subversion, coercion, extortion, and use of force to achieve unification on its terms to ensure regime survival. It is a zero sum situation for the North and it is not going to capitulate or peacefully co-exist with the South.

Fourth, those who advocate for a peace regime are actually "carrying the water" for Kim Jong-un because he is playing the long con and executing a political warfare strategy with Juche characteristics to achieve his objective to dominate the South. A peace regime is the first step in his plan to get US forces off the Korean Peninsula. This will also include disestablishing the UN Command as well.

We should never forget that the strongest deterrent of an attack by the North is the presence of US forces. If we go down the path the Congressman and others advocate we will have conflict on the Korean Peninsula with a scale of loss of blood and treasure and suffering we have not seen since the Armistice was signed in 1953.

Lastly I think people should be cautious when dealing with organizations such as Women Cross DMZ due to connections to north Korean intelligence handlers in New York, e.g., Pak Chol and the United Front Department. https://freekorea.us/2019/11/christine-ahn-pak-chol-and-the-united-front-department/

18. Lazarus Group Shifts Gears with Custom Ransomware

darkreading.com 

This is North Korea's "All-purpose Sword." (as opposed to its "treasured sword" of nuclear weapons).

19. Unification ministry to brief U.N. rapporteur on decision to probe activist groups over anti-N.K. leafleting

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 29, 2020

I wonder if the Minister will get an earful from the UN.

20. Using Cultural Diplomacy to Decouple North Korea from China

HRNK · by Junsoung “Steve” Kim · July 28, 2020

21. South Korea - Military guardhouse system to be abolished after 124 years

The Korea Times · July 28, 2020

Hmmm.... 124 years? That means it existed through the colonial occupation period?

22. Long way to go for Yongsan Park

The Korea Times · July 28, 2020

I recall when we were going to leave Yongsan in the 1980s and early 1990s and we gave up the 8th Army Golf Course that became first the Yongsan Family Park and then later grounds for the National Museum (which forced the relocation of the H-128 helipad on Yongsan).  The buildings in the photo look like our quarters in Blackhawk village where we lived for a number of years in the 1990s.

 

-----------

"In one way we think a great deal too much of the atomic bomb. "How are we to live in an atomic age?" I am tempted to reply: "Why, as you would have lived in the sixteenth century when the plague visited London almost every year, or as you would have lived in a Viking age when raiders from Scandinavia might land and cut your throat any night; or indeed, as you are already living in an age of cancer, an age of syphilis, an age of paralysis, an age of air raids, an age of railway accidents, an age of motor accidents."

 

In other words, do not let us begin by exaggerating the novelty of our situation. Believe me, dear sir or madam, you and all whom you love were already sentenced to death before the atomic bomb was invented: and quite a high percentage of us were going to die in unpleasant ways. We had, indeed, one very great advantage over our ancestors-anesthetics; but we have that still. It is perfectly ridiculous to go about whimpering and drawing long faces because the scientists have added one more chance of painful and premature death to a world which already bristled with such chances and in which death itself was not a chance at all, but a certainty.

 

This is the first point to be made: and the first action to be taken is to pull ourselves together. If we are all going to be destroyed by an atomic bomb, let that bomb when it comes find us doing sensible and human things-praying, working, teaching, reading, listening to music, bathing the children, playing tennis, chatting to our friends over a pint and a game of darts-not huddled together like frightened sheep and thinking about bombs. They may break our bodies (a microbe can do that) but they need not dominate our minds.

- C.S. Lewis "On Living in an Atomic Age" (1948)

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Andrew Narloch.

 

1. Trump nominates retired Army colonel to be next US ambassador to Germany

2. WHO says COVID-19 pandemic is 'one big wave', not seasonal

3. Coronavirus Is Back With a Vengeance in Places Where It Had All but Vanished

4. The Quad Is Poised to Become Openly Anti-China Soon

5. Even countries that got coronavirus under control are now struggling. That's deeply concerning for the rest of the world

6. Pandemic Is Overwhelming U.S. Public Health Capacity In Many States. What Now?

7. Alarm over discovery of hundreds of Chinese fishing vessels near Galápagos Islands

8. US urged to exploit cracks in Russia-China relationship

9. Analysis | The military is making changes in response to Black Lives Matter protests. That's good for fighting wars.

10. Will Chinese Forced Labor Spur Another American Pivot?

11. Hollywood 'kowtowing' to China takes heat from Washington. But why now?

12. How can journalists avoid being used in disinformation operations?

13. Disinformation Disruption and Distance: Public Confidence in the U.S. Military in the COVID-19 Era

14. Military Stolen Valor Cases on the Rise, Investigators Say

15. In defense of Mark Esper

16. D.C. National Guard officer challenges account of violent clearing of protesters in Lafayette Square

17. Democrats urge controversial Pentagon policy nominee to withdraw

18. USAGM Announces Investigation Into 'Long-term Security Failures'

19. This Is Not Your Parents' Military. We Can't Fund It the Same Way

20. Special Forces offers a peek behind the curtain at the spooky side of their job

21. Germany, U.K. Oppose Inviting Korea to G7 Summit

 

1. Trump nominates retired Army colonel to be next US ambassador to Germany

Washington Examiner - by Zachary Halaschak - July 27, 2020

I wonder how you apply "Breaking the Phalanx '' to diplomacy.  Perhaps he will advise on the reorganization of the German military along the lines of his book. (please note my attempt at humor).

 

2.  WHO says COVID-19 pandemic is 'one big wave', not seasonal

Uk.reuters.com - July 28, 2020

 

3. Coronavirus Is Back With a Vengeance in Places Where It Had All but Vanished

WSJ - by Philip Wen in Melbourne, Australia, and Joyu Wang in Hong Kong- July 27, 2020

Obviously not a good sign.  This must be one helluva resilient little virus.

 

4. The Quad Is Poised to Become Openly Anti-China Soon

thewire.in - by Derek Grossman

Will the US vision for the Quad be realized?

 

5. Even countries that got coronavirus under control are now struggling. That's deeply concerning for the rest of the world

CNN - by Analysis by James Griffiths

Yes we should be very concerned. But I have not seen any significant reporting out of Taiwan.  We did see the report of the New Zealand citizen who traveled to South Korea and tested positive upon arrival.

 

6. Pandemic Is Overwhelming U.S. Public Health Capacity In Many States. What Now?

NPR - by Rob Stein - July 28, 2020

I do not know how we are going to solve the capacity issue if the hospitalization rates continue to rise.  A lot of tough decisions are going to be made and possibly being are going to die from causes other than the coronavirus if hospitals are overcrowded with coronavirus patients.

 

7. Alarm over discovery of hundreds of Chinese fishing vessels near Galápagos Islands

The Guardian - by Dan Collyns - July 28, 2020

Well I guess this explains why the Chinese are there: Ecuador's president Lenín Moreno described the archipelago as "one of the richest fishing areas and a seedbed of life for the entire planet."  But we should be clear that China has only its own best interests at heart and has no concern for something like the Galapagos.

 

8. US urged to exploit cracks in Russia-China relationship

Financial Times · by Kathrin Hille · July 27, 2020

Yes,as Mr. Biegun notes below we need to be agile and exploit the seams.

 

9. Analysis | The military is making changes in response to Black Lives Matter protests. That's good for fighting wars.

The Washington Post · by Jason Lyall

That is an interesting subtitle. This article is derived from the author's book: "Divided Armies: Inequality and Battlefield Performance in Modern War

 

10. Will Chinese Forced Labor Spur Another American Pivot?

spectator.org - by Steve Postal- July 28, 2020

I certainly hope so. There needs to be a continued and concerted effort to expose China's abuses.

 

11. Hollywood 'kowtowing' to China takes heat from Washington. But why now?

News.yahoo.com -Alice Su

Actually it should take heat from American moviegoers.

 

12. How can journalists avoid being used in disinformation operations?

aspistrategist.org.au - by Alexandra Pascoe - July 27, 2020

That is probably an impossible task though I think professional journalists will say that following best journalistic practices (and ethics) such as confirming source information and using multiple sources are fundamental ways to minimize being a conduit for disinformation.  But the information battlespace is contested and competing organizations (and nation-states and political parties) will always find journalists caught in the middle.  And paradoxically (to some) perhaps professional journalists are our best hope for exposing disinformation.

 

13. Disinformation Disruption and Distance: Public Confidence in the U.S. Military in the COVID-19 Era

thestrategybridge.org - by Paul Merklinger and Ryan Orsini - July 28, 2020

Some good analysis and well worth the read.  I concur with the authors that we to often fight disinformation when we are back on our heels.  Also I like the idea of how to remove the oxygen from the fire.

 

14. Military Stolen Valor Cases on the Rise, Investigators Say

military.com - by Richard Sisk - July 27, 2020

What is with these people?  I just cannot see how someone can look at themself in the mirror when they lie like this.

 

15. In defense of Mark Esper

The Hill · by James Carafano and Thomas Spoehr, opinion contributors · July 27, 2020

 

16. D.C. National Guard officer challenges account of violent clearing of protesters in Lafayette Square

armytimes.com - by Ellen Knickmeyer, The Associated Press - July 27, 2020

 

17. Democrats urge controversial Pentagon policy nominee to withdraw

The Hill - by Rebecca Kheel - July 27, 2020

I just wonder how many more appointees can get confirmed this term.  The Senate does not seem to have much time to hold all the confirmation hearings.  This first term administration will go down in history as having the most unfilled positions in the executive branch perhaps in history - probably at least in the modern era of Post WWII.

 

18. USAGM Announces Investigation Into 'Long-term Security Failures'

voanews.com - by VOA News

It is not really clear on what kind of security failures. Information and computer network security?  Or personnel security?

 

19. This Is Not Your Parents' Military. We Can't Fund It the Same Way

defenseone.com-DAKOTA WOOD

The high cost of arms and personnel.  

 

20. Special Forces offers a peek behind the curtain at the spooky side of their job

connectingvets.radio.com - by Jack Murphy - July 27, 2020

A very interesting video from the Special Warfare Center and School at this link: https://www.dvidshub.net/video/760270/6th-battalion-command-video

From the DVIDS web site: An in depth overview of the advanced skills taught to Special Operations students by 6th Battalion at the United States John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School on Fort Bragg, North Carolina. Courses range from conventional and unconventional intelligence collection, irregular warfare analytics, biometric and forensic collection techniques, surveillance, and cyber technology.

An awful lot of information in this approximately 6 minute video. You can read a lot between the lines here.

 

21. Germany, U.K. Oppose Inviting Korea to G7 Summit

English.chosun.com 

…..

 

"People have only as much liberty as they have the intelligence to want and the courage to take." 

- Emma Goldman

 

"The likelihood that your acts of resistance cannot stop the injustice does not exempt you from acting in what you sincerely and reflectively hold to be the best interests of your community." 

- Susan Sontag

 

"I believe in the resistance as I believe there can be no light without shadow; or rather, no shadow unless there is also light." 

- Margaret Atwood

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Andrew Narloch.

 

1. North Korea's Kim says there will be no more war thanks to nuclear weapons

2. S. Korea, U.S. to hold summertime exercise for OPCON transfer test, readiness: ministry

3. Experts fear North Korea's undelivered 'Christmas gift' may become 'October surprise'

4. New virus cases under 30 for 2nd day on slowing imported cases; local infections at 1-week low  (South Korea)

5. Twelve more new arrivals test positive for coronavirus, US Forces Korea says

6. A North Korean coronavirus outbreak might be the biggest threat Kim Jong Un has ever faced

7. Defector Accused of Rape in South Korea Swims Back to North Korea

8. S. Korean police fail to manage N. Korean defectors

9. Factbox: What is known about North Korea's possible coronavirus 'patient zero'

10. Pyongyang 'attempting to blame Seoul' for Covid-19

11. Now South Korea's Getting An Aircraft Carrier, Too

12. U.S. vice president sends condolence letter to widow of Korean general Paik

13. OHCHR | Women forcibly returned to North Korea suffer appalling violations in detention

14. How coronavirus in North Korea could bring down Kim Jong-un

15. North Korea steps up coronavirus prevention after first possible infection

16. Kim Jong-un exposed: North Korean officials beg China for vaccine as COVID-19 fears grow

17. North Korean women faced torture, rape, malnourishment in detention, says U.N. report

18. S. Korea allowed to develop solid-fuel space rocket under revised missile guidelines with U.S.

19. Defector's border crossing captured by military's surveillance equipment

20. No unusual military movement detected in N. Korea: defense ministry

21. Defense minister apologizes for defector's slipping across border back to North

22. Unification minister urges staff to play more active role in inter-Korean policy

 

1. North Korea's Kim Says There Will Be No More War Thanks to Nuclear Weapons

Reuters- Reporting by Hyonhee Shin in Seoul; Editing by Matthew Lewis-July 27, 2020

"I will fight no nuclear war forever."  Kim jong-un seems to be channelling Chief Joseph - "I will fight no more forever."

But seriously, the Kim family regime has long believed in the idea that the US will never attack another country armed with nuclear weapons.

 

 2. S. Korea, U.S. to hold summertime exercise for OPCON transfer test, readiness: ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · July 28, 2020

"Both/and" is possible with good exercise design.  As an aside I rarely see the Korean media describe any of the conditions required for conditions based OPCON transition: "The conditions for the transfer are Seoul's capability to lead the allies' combined defense mechanism, its capacity for initial responses to the North's nuclear and missile threats, and a stable security environment on the peninsula and in the region."  The Full Operational Capability (FOC) assessment is designed to ensure the Korean military is on track to meet the conditions required for OPCON transition. The challenge is two of the conditions, north Korea's missile and nuclear threat and a stable security environment on the peninsula and in the region, are conditions the ROK has little control over. It is unlikely the north's missile and nuclear threats will be sufficiently reduced or the security situation will become stable as long as the Kim family regime remains in power.

 

3. Experts fear North Korea's undelivered 'Christmas gift' may become 'October surprise'

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

I hope journalists continue to discuss a possible "October Surprise" and all the likely scenarios. Public discussions about what Kim Jong-un may do is a form of attacking his strategy because it is eliminating an element of surprise.  The public will be so desensitized to the possibility of an October surprise most people will probably just say "Meh.  We knew that would happen."  Kim will be unable to achieve the effects he desires.

 

4. New virus cases under 30 for 2nd day on slowing imported cases; local infections at 1-week low (South Korea)

en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · July 28, 2020

 

5. Twelve more new arrivals test positive for coronavirus, US Forces Korea says

Stars and Stripes - MATTHEW KEELER - July 27, 2020

 

6. A North Korean coronavirus outbreak might be the biggest threat Kim Jong Un has ever faced

CNN - by Analysis by Joshua Berlinger

Yes, as I have said many times a coronavirus outbreak in the north could very well be far worse than the Arduous March of the famine if 1994-1996. And if there is a widespread outbreak within the military it could very well result in severe regime instability. I hope the ROK/US CFC will include contingencies in the upcoming exercises.

 

7. Defector Accused of Rape in South Korea Swims Back to North Korea

voanews.com -By William Gallo- July 27, 2020 

A journalist asked me these two questions: "So what would be some reasons that North Korean defectors would return to North Korea? Also, are there any cases that North Korean defectors may be legally/ physically forced to return to the North?"

Here is my response.

Some of the reasons for returning to the north could be they are homesick and miss their families and homeland.  Despite what we think about the terrible conditions in the north it is still where they came from and grew and just like humans around the world they have a natural affinity for their homeland.

They may have been unable to satisfactorily assimilate intro South Korea culture and society. 

They may have gotten into some kind of legal trouble in South as this person is alleged to have.  So going back to the north may be a way to avoid punishment.  The sad irony is after he is initially exploited for propaganda purposes for returning to the north he will likely be severely punished and if he is ever freed from the gulag he will unlikely be allowed to have contact with his family and rank and file Koreans because the regime will not want him to share his experiences in the South.

Lastly the excepee/defector could be an active north Korean agent sent to the South to pose as a defector in order to carry out intelligence activities in the South.  He may be recalled or as could be in this case recalled for a specific purpose such as to allege that he brought back the coronavirus. The purpose of this is to "cover-up" the existing outbreak and put the blame on South Korea  for any outbreak.  This also can provide an excuse for the north to accept coronavirus aid from the South since the blame for the outbreak will appear to be on the South. I am just speculating as to whether he may have been recalled but even if he returned on his own I expect the regime to fully exploit this for propaganda purposes on multiple levels.

As you know all Koreans from the north are by definition of the ROK constitution citizens of the republic of Korea when they reach the South.  Therefore there should be no legal means to return them to the north.  However, the recent event with the two fishermen who came south and said they asked for asylum but were forcibly repatriated ot the north is a human rights issue.  The ROKG argued they were criminals who murdered 15 fellow fishermen.  If that was the case they should have been tried for their crimes in a South Korean court and if convicted, sentenced to a South Korean prison.  They should not have been returned to the north.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/18/world/asia/north-korea-fishermen-defectors.html

Other instances where Koreans from the north have been returned.  A soldier was washed downstream on the Imjin RIver when I was stationed on the DMZ.  ROK forces recovered him, treated him, and fed him and he was brought to Seoul.  However, he wanted to return to north Korea regardless of what offers were made to him by the South Korean government.  Since he wanted to return he was allowed to do so which I think is the right think on paper,  Unfortunately I fear that due to his extensive exposure to the South after he returned and he was exploited for propaganda purposes he was unlikely to be allowed to return to his family and friends for fear of contaminating them with knowledge of the South.  So the humanitarian gesture by the South likely resulted in another human rights atrocity.

 

8. S. Korean police fail to manage N. Korean defectors

Donga.com- by 한국어 -July. 28, 2020 

 

9. Factbox: What is known about North Korea's possible coronavirus 'patient zero'

Reuters - by Sangmi Cha, Josh Smith3 Min Read - July 27, 2020

I am very skeptical of the defector being "patient zero."  That is certainly what the regime wants us to believe.  But it is likely the north had already experienced an outbreak. I hope the media does not buy into north Korean propaganda that will focus on blaming the South.

 

10. Pyongyang 'attempting to blame Seoul' for Covid-19

AFP - July 27, 2020

This is what we need the media to do - call out the regime and its propaganda.

 

11. Now South Korea's Getting An Aircraft Carrier, Too

Forbes - by David Axe - July 27, 2020

 

12. U.S. vice president sends condolence letter to widow of Korean general Paik

en.yna.co.kr - by 오석민 - July 28, 2020

A very nice letter.

 

13. OHCHR | Women forcibly returned to North Korea suffer appalling violations in detention

Ohchr.org -28 July 2020

Again, this is another indication of the truly evil nature of the Kim family regime. It is difficult to fathom how some pro-north Korean groups, north Korean apologists, and useful idiots in the South and the US could overlook this - except that their pro-north Korean views are stronger than their concerns for the human rights of the Korean people living in the north.  And the brutality against women is at a level that is difficult for us to grasp.  And China is complicit by forcibly repatriating Koreans to the north.

 

14. How coronavirus in North Korea could bring down Kim Jong-un

By Associated Press - Jul 28, 2020

Yes the title is hyperbolic or clickbait.  However, this could also be a perfect storm given the horrendous conditions in north Korea, the poor to nonexistent medical infrastructure in many areas, and the nature of the Kim family regime.  I am not predicting collapse but I do strongly recommend we be very observant for the indications and warnings that are laid out in Robert Collins' seven phases of regime collapse and that we dust off and update all the past contingency planning to prepare for the worst case. 

 

15. North Korea steps up coronavirus prevention after first possible infection

Reuters - by Sangmi Cha3 Min Read - July 28, 2020

The Korean people in the north are doubly cursed.  They will suffer terribly if they are infected with the coronavirus. And they will suffer terribly as the regime implements even more brutal population and resources control measures to contain the virus.  And yet north Korean propaganda seems to be the main effort - note they are enrolling people in human trials for a coronavirus vaccine.  Of course the regime has no qualms about human testing for anything.  I doubt safety and safeguards are a factor in their "testing" if they are even going through the motions to support their propaganda.

 

16. Kim Jong-un exposed: North Korean officials beg China for vaccine as COVID-19 fears grow

Express - by Manon Dark - July 28, 2020

I guess they do not read the news.  No one has yet developed a vaccine.  Perhaps they believe China has secretly developed one. 

 

17. North Korean women faced torture, rape, malnourishment in detention, says U.N. report

Reuters - by Hyonhee Shin3 Min Read - July 28, 2020

 

18. S. Korea allowed to develop solid-fuel space rocket under revised missile guidelines with U.S.

en.yna.co.kr - by 이치동 - July 28, 2020

Of course South Korea, with its advanced technological and scientific expertise, could easily outproduce north Korea in missile (and nuclear) capability.

 

19. Defector's border crossing captured by military's surveillance equipment

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · July 28, 2020

What about the anti-swimming nets and other counter-infiltration defenses (which should also hinder people going north). Have they been removed?  Were they removed as a "tension reduction" measure?  Then again in the 1980s I recall a US soldier, after a night of partying, swimming across the Imjin river (north to South) but was immediately caught by a South Korea patrol) so these defenses are never 100% secure.  Then again for the defector to get through obstacles (the report describes his small stature and flexibility) I wonder if he had infiltration training when he did his military service in the north?  Or perhaps he was not a defector at all?

 

20. No unusual military movement detected in N. Korea: defense ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · July 28, 2020

Sun Tzu says all warfare is based on deception.  North Korea is masterful at denial and deception.  They often show us what they want us to see.  Or sometimes they want us to see nothing to make us complacent.  I always wonder what it is we are not seeing.

 

21. Defense minister apologizes for defector's slipping across border back to North

en.yna.co.kr - by 우재연 - July 28, 2020

I would not want to be in the Minister's shoes, though I think I would have tried to avoid saying the military's capabilities are not so bad as one might think. That is probably a misinterpretation or translation issue.

 

22. Unification minister urges staff to play more active role in inter-Korean policy

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 28, 2020

This is one of the challenges with South Korea. There is not always a clear division of labor in the ROKG. The Ministry of UNification crosses over into intelligence and foreign affairs.  And except perhaps for the north's United Front Department it has no counterpart in other governments such as with the US government.  I think this is what makes policy coordination among the alliance more challenging and why there is such a need for a strategy working group - to which I understand the MOU is invited to send representatives but it is not in charge of.

But my real question is as the Ministry of Unification what is it doing to plan and prepare for unification and the establishment of a United republic of Korea (UROK)?  it seems to me it should be planning, preparing, educating.

…..

 

"People have only as much liberty as they have the intelligence to want and the courage to take." 

- Emma Goldman

 

"The likelihood that your acts of resistance cannot stop the injustice does not exempt you from acting in what you sincerely and reflectively hold to be the best interests of your community." 

- Susan Sontag

 

"I believe in the resistance as I believe there can be no light without shadow; or rather, no shadow unless there is also light." 

- Margaret Atwood