Small Wars Journal

Perspective: War with the Cartels Is More Complicated Than It Sounds

Thu, 03/23/2023 - 4:40pm

Perspective: War with the Cartels Is More Complicated Than It Sounds

Michael L. Burgoyne and Albert J. Marckwardt

Without a hint of reflection on the dismal strategic outcomes of the twenty-year debacle in Afghanistan and the ongoing investment in Iraq, there is a growing movement to authorize the use of military force against Mexican cartels.[1] Carl Von Clausewitz famously admonishes that “the first, the supreme, the most far-reaching act of judgement that the statesman and commander have to make is to establish by that test the kind of war on which they are embarking.”[2] The United States would be wise to heed this warning. The use of US military force could result in the disarticulation of targeted cartels; however, it will not reduce the flow of illicit drugs, including fentanyl. Worse still, the unilateral use of U.S. military power in Mexico risks another unrestrained military adventure and severe damage to bilateral relations with the number two U.S. trading partner.[3]

M2

Vehicle-mounted M2 .50 caliber machine guns, USMC, Public Domain.

Good strategy must clearly articulate its objective and then develop a resource informed plan to achieve it. Military support or action can dismantle transnational criminal organizations. This can be extremely valuable when these groups are a direct threat to the state—as was the case with the Medellin and Cali Cartels. However, advocates for the use of force in Mexico argue that unleashing the US military on the cartels will stop the flow of fentanyl and reduce the number of overdoses. At a cost of $10 billion, Plan Colombia was critical in increasing stability, but as a counterdrug strategy it didn’t make a dent.[4] In fact, cocaine production is at record levels, exceeding 900 tons a year.[5] A decade ago, an all-out war was waged by Mexican security forces against Los Zetas. That cartel never recovered, but drug trafficking didn’t skip a beat, and new cartels emerged to fill the void. If the US objective is to reduce drug overdoses, the use of military force will not achieve this goal.

The concept of a unified “cartel” is also problematic. These are networks that integrate a broad swath of the population including corrupt politicians, police officers, and business owners. They are inherently multinational, integrating US citizens and dual citizens throughout their organizations on both sides of the border, including US based gun dealers that provide a constant stream of weapons.[6] This is an environment fraught with uncertainty and primed for rapid escalation. Pending congressional legislation targeting cartels provides too wide a latitude for lethal military action and replicates the open-ended authorities and mistakes of the War on Terror.

Unilateral military action also invites a serious diplomatic fallout with Mexico. The Mexican-American War, Punitive Expedition, cross border raids, and the occupation of Veracruz are footnotes in US history books, but they are key components of the Mexican national narrative. This amounts to a powder keg of Mexican nationalism primed for ignition. Integrated North American supply chains and growing efforts at nearshoring are essential to freeing critical manufacturing capability from dependence on China. Our global competitors would be the greatest beneficiaries of a breakdown in bilateral trade. With a war in Ukraine raging and tensions with China on the rise, initiating a conflict with Mexico would be strategic malpractice. 

A simplistic call for a military solution imposed on foreigners is certainly appealing, but national introspection on the drivers of drug abuse is what is truly necessary. For 50 years, a supply side drug war approach has not achieved the objective of reducing drug use or overdose deaths. The rise of synthetic drugs has further degraded the viability of this strategy. Harm reduction methodologies employed in Portugal and Oregon provide a potentially more effective health-based approach to the problem.

Barring radical changes to US drug policies, any use of force in Mexico should follow the Special Forces tenant of actions “by, with, and through” the Mexican government under the more limited and achievable outcome of the disintegration of the most egregiously violent and destabilizing organizations. Mexico suffers over 30,000 annual homicides and criminal groups regularly target law enforcement, politicians, and journalists.[7] The most promising approach would be a sequential, focused, and systematic targeting strategy aimed at cartel behavior modification as outlined by Mark Kleiman.[8]

When employed with precision, the military can play an important role against transnational criminal organizations that threaten stability. However, military force has not been effective in decreasing drug use in the United States. A more effective strategy would focus on the demand for illicit drugs and limit the harm caused by their use. Lawmakers would be wise to examine their objectives for a “War on the Cartels” to avoid another costly and ill-conceived military escapade.

Endnotes

[1] US Congress, House, AUMF Cartel Influence Resolution.  118th Cong., J.R. 18. https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-joint-resolution/18/text?r=2&s=1.

[2] Carl von Clausewitz, On War, ed. and trans. Michael Howard and Peter Paret. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1976, p.88.

[3] “Trade in Goods with Mexico.” Washington, DC: US Census Bureau, https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c2010.html.

[4] Congressional Research Service, Colombia: Background and U.S. Relations, Washington, DC: CRS Reports. 16 December 2021, https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R43813.

[5] “ONDCP Releases Data on Coca Cultivation and Production in the Andean Region.” Washington, DC: The White House. 4 July 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/ondcp/briefing-room/2022/07/14/ondcp-releases-data-on-coca-cultivation-and-production-in-the-andean-region/

[6] Ioan Grillo, Blood Gun Money. New York, Bloomsbury. 2021, https://www.amazon.com/Blood-Gun-Money-Firearms-Trafficking/dp/1635572789.

[7] Peter Appleby, Chris Dalby, Sean Doherty, Scott Mistler-Ferguson, and h\Henry Shuldiner, “Homicide Roundup.” Insight Crime. 8 February 2023, https://insightcrime.org/news/insight-crime-2022-homicide-round-up/ - Mexico

[8] Mark Kleiman, “Surgical Strikes in the Drug Wars.” Foreign Affairs. 1 September 2011, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-america/2011-09-01/surgical-strikes-drug-wars.

Categories: El Centro

About the Author(s)

Albert J. Marckwardt is a former US Army Foreign Area Officer where he served in various policy and security cooperation positions in the Americas including assignments as a Joint Task Force Liaison Officer in the US Embassy in Honduras, Mexico Desk Officer at U.S. Army North, and Colombia Country Director at the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Western Hemisphere Affairs. He deployed twice in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom in command and staff positions. He is the coauthor of The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa, a tactical primer on counterinsurgency. He is currently completing a Doctor of International Affairs degree and holds a Master in International Public Policy at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.

Michael L. Burgoyne is a former US Army Foreign Area Officer, he served in various policy and security cooperation positions in the Americas including assignments as the Army Attaché in Mexico, the Andean Ridge Desk Officer at U.S. Army South, and the Senior Defense Official in Guatemala. He deployed twice in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom in command and staff positions and served as the Defense Attaché in Kabul, Afghanistan. He is the co-author of The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa, a tactical primer on counterinsurgency. He holds an M.A. in Strategic Studies from the US Army War College and an M.A. in Security Studies from Georgetown University. He is currently a PhD student at King’s College London.

Comments

Ashleyvivian

Fri, 05/19/2023 - 8:56am

My name is Ashley Vivian, Am here to share a testimony on how Dr Raypower helped me. After a 1/5 year relationship with my boyfriend, he changed suddenly and stopped contacting me regularly, he would come up with excuses of not seeing me all the time. He stopped answering my calls and my sms and he stopped seeing me regularly. I then started catching him with different girls several times but every time he would say that he loved me and that he needed some time to think about our relationship. But I couldn't stop thinking about him so I decided to go online and I saw so many good talks about this spell caster called Dr Raypower and I contacted him and explained my problems to him. He cast a love spell for me which I use and after 24 hours, my boyfriend came back to me and started contacting me regularly and we moved in together after a few months and he was more open to me than before and he started spending more time with me than his friends. We eventually got married and we have been married happily for 3 years with a son. Ever since Dr Raypower helped me, my partner is very stable, faithful and closer to me than before. You can also contact this spell caster and get your relationship fixed Email: urgentspellcast@gmail.com or see more reviews about him on his website: https://urgentspellcast.wordpress.com WhatsApp: +27790254036

Love is when you are happy and an individual who makes you happy is someone whom you consider as a lucky person. You feel like giving back to this person for making you feel beautiful in the most ordinary of situations. || Model Escorts in Bangalore || Bangalore Independent Escorts || High Profile Bangalore Escorts || Bangalore VIP Escorts || Model Bangalore Escorts || Independent Bangalore Escorts || High Profile Escorts in Bangalore || Bangalore Escorts || Model Escorts in Bangalore || High profile Bangalore Escorts || Bangalore Escorts || Independent Escorts in Bangalore || Bangalore Escorts Service || Escorts in Bangalore || Bangalore Model Escorts || VIP Escorts in Bangalore

With this kind of situation, I think it's pretty normal that the army has a number of problems in today's world. If some of the people in the group are corrupt, it will make things even more complicated.  I recently read an article on http://www.military-today.com/life/top_5_problems_in_the_army_in_todays_world.htm that talked about the current problems in the military. And I notice that a lot of the ones mentioned in the article are also similar to the ones you mentioned.

David Yax

Mon, 03/27/2023 - 8:31pm

i am super excited this very moment indeed Dr Dominion is truly a good man, i doubted him from the beginning but right now i can trust him with my all because he has put a beautiful smile on my face and change my life from struggle to millionaire, what would i have done without him, just few months ago i was struggling wondering what would my life turn into, now i am here sharing a wonderful testimony of my life, after i explained my whole situation to him he took me as his own daughter and removed my family from shame, he prepared a lottery winning spell for me with true sincerity and gave me a winning number to play and that was how i won that jackpot, Dr Dominion took away my shame, my pain and my worries, what a humble man with a heart of gold, thank you so much i am very grateful for what you have done for me, should you have  any interest in giving it a try or going through any difficulties i think he is the right man to talk to and i believe he can help 

Email: dominionlottospelltemple@gmail.com
website: https://dominionlottospell.wixsite.com/dr-dominion
WhatsApp: +16574277820
Call: +12059642462