Small Wars Journal

03/03/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

Wed, 03/03/2021 - 10:36am

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Understanding the CCP Threat | Indo-Pacific Defense Forum

2. Look who's embracing 'America First' now | Opinion

3. Opinion | The Military’s Extremism Problem Is Our Problem

4. The factors that could lead to war between the US and China

5. Why Biden Needs to Keep All Nuclear Options on the Table

6. China’s Image in the US Has Never Been Worse

7. Pentagon lays out big tab to keep up with China

8. In Indo-Pacific, US eyes 'agile' posture to dodge Chinese missiles

9. Colin Kahl, Biden nominee for senior Pentagon post, faces GOP scrutiny

10. Key Elements Expected This Year for Pentagon’s Link-Everything Effort

11. U.S. China Policy at the Crossroads: Containment or Liberation?

12. The Army’s Information Operations Profession Has an Identity Crisis

13. German warship to sail through South China Sea, officials say

14. US has no need to change its ‘strategic ambiguity’ about Taiwan, says ex-national security adviser H.R. McMaster

15. The road to Joe Biden's foreign policy runs through Bob Menendez

16. A Glimpse of Bill Burns' CIA

17. Using Messaging and Communication to Influence and Inform: Insights from the Private Sector

18. Building the Next Generation of Boyds, Hoppers, Krulaks and Pattons

19. Admiral Offers Vision for Indo-Pacific

20. COVID-19 Response Has Uncovered and Increased Our Vulnerability to Biological Warfare

 

1. Understanding the CCP Threat | Indo-Pacific Defense Forum

ipdefenseforum.com · by IPDForum · February 11, 2021

My thoughts on dealing with China from a SOF perspective.

 

2. Look who's embracing 'America First' now | Opinion

Newsweek · by Jonathan Schanzer and Mark Dubowitz · March 2, 2021

From my bosses.

Conclusion: "America's interests should be pursued through hard-nosed diplomacy backed by American power. But if it's done at the expense of our allies and to the benefit of our adversaries, it's hard to see how this administration's approach is not the pursuit of a myopic "America First" worldview that Democrats have been decrying for four years."

 

3.  Opinion | The Military’s Extremism Problem Is Our Problem

The New York Times · by Kori Schake and Michael Robinson · March 2, 2021

Excerpts:

“The military is not the principal arm of accountability for the activity of veterans who are private citizens — American society bears that responsibility. Once these individuals cross into private life and engage in the sort of unacceptable violence that we saw on Jan. 6, they are the purview of that society: Civilian law enforcement will try them, civilian courts will make determinations of justice, and civilians must realize they represent not the military, but the public.

...

Americans in military service and veterans aren’t some sealed-off segment of the population; they are us. And like other Americans, they are yearning for the connectedness of community and a sense of belonging. Finding civically responsible ways to stitch our veterans back into their communities would diminish the pipeline of veterans into extremist groups, just as it gives jihadists and gang members offramps. Remember that veterans stood among the heroes on Jan. 6, too.

Addressing his victorious soldiers, then-colonel and future President James Garfield declared, “Let it not be said that good men dread the approach of an American army.” The responsibility to make it so falls on us all. To the extent that military service — active or prior — poses an extremist threat, we shouldn’t expect only the military to solve this problem for us.”

 

4. The factors that could lead to war between the US and China

aspistrategist.org.au · by Joseph S. Nye · March 2, 2021

Conclusion: "Those who proclaim Pax Sinica and American decline fail to take account of the full range of power resources. American hubris is always a danger but so is exaggerated fear, which can lead to overreaction. Equally dangerous is rising Chinese nationalism, which, combined with a belief in American decline, leads China to take greater risks. Both sides must beware of miscalculation. After all, more often than not, the greatest risk we face is our own capacity for error."

 

5. Why Biden Needs to Keep All Nuclear Options on the Table

The National Interest · by Adam Cabot · March 3, 2021

Excerpts:

With a new president signalling that nuclear weapons are not an option, aggressive dictators looking to exploit power vacuums and weakness may conclude that the time is right to push the envelope and invade Taiwan or close the South China Sea, invade the Baltic States or attack South Korea.

US nuclear policies and strategies have helped prevent great-power conflict through appropriate signalling and a robust, evolving nuclear posture. Now is not the time weaken our resolve when bullies are seeking to exploit global fear and hardship and gain an advantage. Let’s not be blindly idealistic to the point of weakening solid defence structures. There’s too much at stake.

Biden needs to signal to potential adversaries that the US has developed and produced flexible options for a reason, and that these options can and will be used proportionally.

 

6. China’s Image in the US Has Never Been Worse

Vice · by Alan Wong

 

7. Pentagon lays out big tab to keep up with China

washingtontimes.com · by Ben Wolfgang

A key point. Will we deploy intermediate range missiles to Asia and if so, where?

Excerpt: "Asked this week whether the U.S. was examining the possibility of intermediate-range missiles in the Pacific, Pentagon officials left the door wide open.“That’s the kind of thing that we’ll be looking at in our global posture review. And I think that all factors into what resources you’re applying against what strategy in what part of the world,” Defense Department spokesman John Kirby told reporters Monday, adding, “Clearly, our defensive posture, which includes not just people, but resources and systems, will all be part of this global posture review.”

 

8. In Indo-Pacific, US eyes 'agile' posture to dodge Chinese missiles

asia.nikkei.com

An interesting statement in the subtitle: "Commander vows shift away from concentration in East Asia."

I suspect this might be misinterpreted in Korea.

 

9. Colin Kahl, Biden nominee for senior Pentagon post, faces GOP scrutiny

KSNV· by James Rosen · March 2, 2021

Someone mentioned to me that Colin will be a sacrificial lamb among the confirmation nominees.

 

10. Key Elements Expected This Year for Pentagon’s Link-Everything Effort

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

"Link everything." Quite a concept. Of course my question is what happens when we become delinked? Are we going to invest in sufficient capabilities to ensure resilience?

But I concur with the Chairman that this has long been a problem:

“Up until today, all the services, for years, decades, have been developing their own internal systems,” Milley said. “And we end up having to do all these bridges and workarounds etc. So they optimize development for their own internal requirements and they sub-optimize for anything that’s needed for the joint role. But we don’t fight wars as an Army, a Navy…we fight wars as a nation and we fight wars with allies and partners.”

 

11. U.S. China Policy at the Crossroads: Containment or Liberation?

spectator.org · by Francis P. Sempa · March 2, 2021

Ominous conclusion: "Should China win Cold War II, the world will be a very different place, and the liberal world order that has brought freedom and prosperity to so many people will be replaced by an illiberal, autocratic one. These are the stakes."

 

12. The Army’s Information Operations Profession Has an Identity Crisis

usni.org · by Bradley Young and Jonathan Wood · March 2, 2021

Excerpts:

“Clearly, the lack of identity negatively impacts FA30s’ professional cohesion. Many FA30s are marginalized, ignored, underutilized, or incorrectly employed. There is no doubt that this identity crisis also negatively impacts the Army’s ability to recruit and retain IO professionals. It is never easy to recruit and retain individuals in a profession that struggles to define itself.

...

Without a doubt, Army FA30s perform an essential role in information warfare, and the importance of these positions will only increase as the information environment becomes more central in current and future warfare. The Army will continue to need staff experts focused on the holistic integration of all information-related effects, and FA30s will fill that role regardless of whatever form the position takes. By standardizing Joint Force and Army IO doctrine and terminology, as well as investigating the possibility of creating an IO branch, the Army can help build the identity and capability of its IO community, thus empowering them to wage information warfare in future conflicts.

 

13. German warship to sail through South China Sea, officials say

straitstimes.com · March 3, 2021

Seems like more and more of our European allies are conducting operations in the Asia-Pacific region.

 

14. US has no need to change its ‘strategic ambiguity’ about Taiwan, says ex-national security adviser H.R. McMaster

SCMP · by Robert Delaney · March 3, 2021

Excerpts:

“McMaster supported the call for a larger, more distributed fleet because, he said, China and Russia have in the past 20 years developed technologies including big data analytics, GPS and precision strike capabilities that threaten US naval operations more than ever.

“Since World War I, the smaller and smaller US joint forces have had bigger and bigger impacts over wider areas based on our technological advantages,” he said.

“All of that now was challenged, because Russia, China and others, they studied us, especially after the Gulf War, and they developed capabilities to take apart those differential advantages,” McMaster added.

The Biden administration must submit its proposed 30-year budget for shipbuilding later this year, which will require congressional approval, and has not yet indicated whether it will support the Trump administration’s goal.”

 

15. The road to Joe Biden's foreign policy runs through Bob Menendez

Politico

Excerpts:

“Menendez’s allies say the Biden administration would cross him at its own peril — especially when Biden is looking for lawmakers’ support for a major foreign policy initiative. Menendez’s penchant for working closely with Republicans can be an asset to an administration that came into office emphasizing bipartisanship. And in a 50-50 Senate, every vote counts.

“I would encourage the Biden administration to pick his brain, because if Bob can get onto something, Republicans are going to take it seriously,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said in an interview.

Menendez has vowed to conduct vigorous oversight of the Biden administration’s foreign policy — something that was sorely lacking under former President Donald Trump, whose administration routinely flouted Congress, ignored the law, and was openly hostile to both Democrats and Republicans.

“When things aren’t going as well as they should, don’t expect Sen. Menendez to lay back. I expect he’ll be pretty aggressive,” said Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), the second-highest ranking Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee.

 

16. A Glimpse of Bill Burns' CIA

thecipherbrief.com

Look over the horizon a little bit??? I recall this anecdote from an intelligence professional. I have no way to confirm this but I trust what he told me. He said during the Cold War the CIA had about 75% of its analysts focused on long term intelligence forecasts and analysts and 25% on current operations. After 9-11 that was more than reversed. If intelligence is going to support policy then we probably need to allocate sufficient intelligence resources on looking over the horizon more than a little bit.

Excerpts:

“Near the end of the hearing, in answer to a question, Burns suggested that CIA, as immediate as crises may seem, should at times “be able to look over the horizon a little bit.”

He chose Space where, he said, “Our adversaries are working overtime to develop their capabilities which can threaten American critical infrastructure and lots of other things that are important to us. It’s also an area where there are really no international rules of the road right now – whether in terms of commerce or security or anything else.”

Burns went on, “It’s incumbent on CIA to focus on issues like that to be able to highlight the threat that’s growing for American interests and then to try to think creatively in support of policymakers about how you anticipate those threats and begin today to plan for the best ways to deal with them.”

 

17. Using Messaging and Communication to Influence and Inform: Insights from the Private Sector

nsiteam.com

The 11 page report can be downloaded here

 

18.  Building the Next Generation of Boyds, Hoppers, Krulaks and Pattons

mwi.usma.edu · by Kelly McCoy · March 2, 2021

Excerpts:

“The master of science in strategy is an interdisciplinary degree drawing from a technically focused graduate-level certificate and combining this with a unique strategic studies curriculum and an applied research thesis. The strategic studies curriculum focuses on policy topics like national security decision making, emerging technology, space systems, and cyber. These courses are designed to provide tools for technological leaders to define ill-structured, sometimes wicked, problems and formulate outcomes with clear operational benefits bounded by technical reality.

The principal constraint of this program, however, is its limited technical focus. Currently, technological leaders produced by this program will focus either on space systems or nuclear command, control, and communication. However, as the program expands, there is potential for growth into existing technical certificates in cyberartificial intelligence, and data science.

In a recent US Army Mad Scientist discussion on policy and ethics of autonomous systems, the panel of experts highlighted the need for translators—those who understand both the hard and soft sciences—if the US military is to be successful in the upcoming Cognitive Age. Whether we call them translators or technological leaders, now is the time empower, develop, and build the next generation of Boyds, Hoppers, Krulaks, and Pattons. The alternative is to leave it to serendipity and hope that they emerge individually by circumstance. We can’t afford to take that chance.”

 

19.  Admiral Offers Vision for Indo-Pacific

defense.gov · by David Vergun

Excerpts:

“To accomplish all of this, there are four key pillars...

The first pillar is to increase joint force lethality

The second pillar is to enhance force design and posture in the region

The third pillar is to strengthen alliances and partnerships

The fourth pillar is to exercise experimentation innovation.”

 

20. COVID-19 Response Has Uncovered and Increased Our Vulnerability to Biological Warfare

academic.oup.com · by Regan F Lyon, MC, USAF

If we cannot "fight through" COVID we may not be able to fight through a deliberate biological warfare attack. Hopefully we are learning lessons from COVID that will be useful in a deliberate biological attack.

 

---------------

 

“We have war when at least one of the parties to a conflict wants something more than it wants peace.”

- Jeane Kirkpatrick

 

"Whenever men in their arrogance and pride set themselves up as absolute, they will be beaten to the ground."

- Benjamin E. Mays

 

The harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly; it is dearness only that gives everything its value. I love the man that can smile in trouble, that can gather strength from distress and grow brave by reflection. 'Tis the business of little minds to shrink; but he whose heart is firm, and whose conscience approves his conduct, will pursue his principles unto death. 

- Thomas Paine

Categories: News

Comments

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