The Islamic State’s Fear of History by The Soufan Group
… History will show that the ending of the Islamic State didn’t begin with a bang or a whimper but rather a rant. The Islamic State remains a potent foe, especially to the millions suffering under its rule in Syria and Iraq, but the group appears disjointed and off-balance. It can’t help but be itself, and its indiscriminate killing of Sunnis, whom the group professes to protect and represent, is allowing history to repeat. The group is terrified of popular revolt among those Sunnis…
Comments
I can't believe this passes for analysis. If an analyst submitted something even remotely like this to me they'd be promptly asked to find another job.
Feel good speculation about how "baddies always get their karma" isn't informative or insightful. Nothing in this article even remotely touches on the capacity of ISIS to manage a rebellion or the general scale of such a rebellion or even potential for it. A thousand dead tribesmen out of 5 million inhabitants "a rebellion" or "portent of failure" do not make.
Even if ISIS makes plenty of enemies and those enemies rise up a la the Awakening, there aren't 165,000 American helper dudes around like there were last time.