Small Wars Journal

8/30/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

Sun, 08/30/2020 - 4:46pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. New virus cases below 300 as social distancing toughened in greater Seoul

2. Seoul ‘shuts down’ in bid to blunt COVID-19

3. Defense ministry extends restrictions on troop vacation amid fight (South Korea)

4. Ex-minister Kang Kum-Sil envisions peace and life at DMZ

5. N.Korean border guards 'under shoot-to-kill orders' (report based on RFA reporting)

6. Continuity or reset? China and South Korea face a post-Abe Japan

7. South Korea's ruling party picks ex-prime minister as possible Moon successor

8. In North Korea, Joe Biden will seek change, not photo ops

9. Why South Korea would celebrate a Joe Biden win. What about North Korea?

10. China will look to take advantage of Joe Biden's North Korea policy

11. North Korea's Kim Jong-Un is eager to engage. Is Joe Biden?

12. Pyongyang ‘sends spy messages through YouTube for first time’, South Korea’s media rushes to report - but there’s a caveat

13. U.N. North Korea investigator: Seoul's singling out of defectors a mistake

14. To solve North Korea, Joe Biden must learn a lesson from Donald Trump

15. U.S. issues warning on North Korean hackers targeting banks worldwide

16. The U.S. is taking its crypto back from North Korea

17. Disappearance of Kim Jong-Un’s sister ominous sign of brutal Pyongyang power play

18. North Korea to create 'terror' with Juche Bird launch after coronavirus delay

 

1. New virus cases below 300 as social distancing toughened in greater Seoul

Yonhap News Agency · by entropy@yna.co.kr · August 30, 2020

 

2. Seoul ‘shuts down’ in bid to blunt COVID-19

Korea Herald · by Kim Arin · August 30, 2020

 

3. Defense ministry extends restrictions on troop vacation amid fight (South Korea)

Korea Herald · by Yonhap · August 30, 2020

 

4.  Ex-minister Kang Kum-Sil envisions peace and life at DMZ

Korea Herald · by Kim Hae-yeon · August 30, 2020

There is a tremendous amount of life in the DMZ. However, the DMZ will never be 100% safe for unlimited human use. The number of unaccounted-for mines that have shifted over the years due to the monsoon floods and other environmental conditions means that no one can ever guarantee the DMZ will be cleared for safe use. Yes, parts of it can–and much of the DMZ should—be preserved as natural habitats to allow animals and plants to flourish as they currently do. However, I think it would be irresponsible to ever declare the DMZ completely open and safe for public use. The bulk of the DMZ should be sustained as a nature preserve.

 

5. N.Korean border guards 'under shoot-to-kill orders' (report based on RFA reporting)

Chosun Ilbo · by Chosun Ilbo · August 28, 2020

Just as an aside: this report in the Korean press would likely not be possible without Radio Free Asia (and others that are dependent on Voice of America). Journalists from RFA and VOA have contacts inside North Korea. Their news reports provide information not only to the Korean people in the North (who are not allowed to hear their own news because it is regulated by the regime's Propaganda and Agitation Department); they also provide news and information that is used by the South Korean, US, and international mainstream media. The Koreans services of RFA and VOA punch well above their weight, contributing significantly (though indirectly) to information and influence activities simply by executing their mission: to report the news from the target area back to the target area and to report news from the US and international community to the target area and the region.

 

6. Continuity or reset? China and South Korea face a post-Abe Japan

Nikkei Asian Review · by Tsukasa Hadano & Yosuke Onchi · August 30, 2020

What happens in Japan could have a significant impact on Korea and, thus, the US. We should expect a lot of speculation in the coming days.

 

7. South Korea's ruling party picks ex-prime minister as possible Moon successor

Herald-Mail Media · by Jeong-Ho Lee Bloomberg · August 29, 2020

And I guess it is not too early to be speculating about South Korean presidential politics.

 

8. In North Korea, Joe Biden will seek change, not photo ops

National Interest · by Robert King · August 29, 2020

I get that the National Interest is running this "what if" series to examine what Biden's policies might be toward North Korea. But, it seems like a little bit of counting chickens before they hatch (though a number of their articles have been written from the prospective what if either candidate wins and comparing and contrasting what policies each might implement).

When I saw the title, my subconscious immediately read "regime change." However, I do not think that is what Ambassador King has in mind (and, if he does, it is not something he would express in public… although I cannot speak for the Ambassador, I would guess that he is in favor of unification under a United Republic of Korea, which would require not regime change but simply the regime going away!).

 

9. Why South Korea would celebrate a Joe Biden win. What about North Korea?

National Interest · by Ramon Pacheco Pardo · August 29, 2020

If Biden wins, North Korea will have lost its best chance of ever getting a deal. He needs both Trump and Moon to get a deal and both are most likely to make one. But Kim has squandered his chances. On the other hand, to get a deal with both Moon and Trump would require significant compromise by the regime because, despite both seeming that they want it more than Kim, they (and Biden) are not likely to fall into the traps of the past where the North gets much for very little or nothing. The North will (and must) be required to make substantial concessions in terms of declarations, dismantling, and inspections, which it has never agreed to before. That sums up the essence of the problem: Kim will not allow substantive working-level talks that lead to a real process, which requires transparency in the form of intrusive activity. Kim is just not going to agree to that. Which is why we need a strategy beyond the nuclear crisis that focuses on resolving the "Korea question."

 

10. China will look to take advantage of Joe Biden's North Korea policy

National Interest · by Patricia Schouker · August 30, 2020

 

Yes, there are still many who think we should pressure China to solve the North Korean problem, but I think that most realize that North Korea is a pawn to China in Great Power Competition, and that realization should help either man as president to (hopefully) prevent being "played" by China (and North Korea). They may appear to but neither candidate is likely to fall for China's subversive activities toward North Korea.

 

11. North Korea's Kim Jong-Un is eager to engage. Is Joe Biden?

National Interest · by Seong-ho Sheen · August 29, 2020

One thing I think we should all agree on is that President Trump has broken a number of taboos when it comes to North Korea. Whether you think that is good or bad, his efforts may provide future presidents (or himself, if he is re-elected) with the ability to be more flexible (but please note that I do not define being more flexible as giving into to demands for concessions in which Kim gets something for nothing).  But, President Trump or a successor can be more creative because of the unconventional, experimental, top down, pen pal diplomacy of the past 3 years. However, whether any of the most creative strategies might work is dependent on Kim Jong-Un. Of course, if we go for a strategy that looks beyond Kim Jong-Un and works to resolve the Korea question, then that same creativity will be useful as well.

 

12. Pyongyang ‘sends spy messages through YouTube for first time’, South Korea’s media rushes to report - but there’s a caveat

RT · by RT · August 30, 2020

A bigger caveat: this is from Russia's RT. 

But if I were advising North Korea and the regime wanted to do this, I might recommend exactly this and make it seem like this is some "station" in Mexico. Analysis such as Martyn Williams' below would be exactly what I would want. Then again, if I were advising the regime, I might recommend just doing something obvious like this to get people talking and focusing on the wrong thing while I use a different means of communication. As some famous general said, all warfare is based on deception.

 

13. U.N. North Korea investigator: Seoul's singling out of defectors a mistake

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · August 28, 2020

This is a troubling statement about our linchpin and cornerstone allies.

 

14. To solve North Korea, Joe Biden must learn a lesson from Donald Trump

National Interest · by Mitchell Lerner · August 30, 2020

Whomever wins in November needs a long-term strategy that goes beyond the nuclear crisis.

Here is one from 2019.

Here is one from 2004.

 

15. U.S. issues warning on North Korean hackers targeting banks worldwide

Lexology · by Lexology · August 28, 2020

Beware of North Korea cyber actions.

 

16. The U.S. is taking its crypto back from North Korea

Live Bitcoin News · by Nick Marinoff · August 29, 2020

Let's get more aggressive in the cyber domain. This is a small but good example of just one thing we need to be doing.

 

17. Disappearance of Kim Jong-un’s sister ominous sign of brutal Pyongyang power play

news.com.au · by Benedict Brook · August 30, 2020

Relatively long assessment of the Kim family regime's Game of Thrones (with juche characteristics of course).

 

18. North Korea to create 'terror' with Juche Bird launch after coronavirus delay

Daily Star · by Tom Towers · August 30, 2020

Ah... the Juche Bird.

I do pay attention to everything that Professor Sung-Yoon Lee says and writes about North Korea. There are few real experts on North Korea, but he is one of them.

My sense is whether a "juche bird" will be launched this fall will depend on how the October 10th military celebrations go (or do not go or do not go right).

 

""Divisions...under my command...fought on a front of seven hundred miles, in four groups, separated by great distances, with no lateral communications between them and beyond tactical support of one another.... Commanders at all levels had to act more on their own; they were given greater latitude to work out their own plans to achieve what they knew was the Army Commander's intention. In time they developed to a marked degree a flexibility of mind and a firmness of decision that enabled them to act swiftly to take advantage of sudden information of changing circumstances without reference to their superiors.... This acting without orders, in anticipation of orders, or without waiting for approval, yet always within the overall intention, must become second nature in any form of warfare."

- Field Marshall (British Army) William Slim, Defeat Into Victory

"The staff knew so much of war than I did that they refused to learn from me of the strange conditions in which Arab irregulars had to act; and I could not be bothered to set kindergarten for their benefit."

-   T.E. Lawrence

"Never esteem anything as of advantage to you that will make you break your word or lose your self-respect."

- Marcus Aurelius

Categories: News