Small Wars Journal

10/07/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Wed, 10/07/2020 - 9:15am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. A Letter from the Son of the Man Killed, Burnt by North Korea on September 22, 2020: Restore My Father's Honor

2.  Kim Jong-un promotes pair of advisers to North's highest military rank

3. 2020 Report on American Attitudes Toward the Korean Peninsula

4. Ex-N.Korean Diplomat Defected to S.Korea

5.  South Korean Activists Accuse China of Using Huawei to Hack Their Election

6. A letter to Kim Jong-un

7. Fitch Affirms Korea at 'AA-'; Outlook Stable

8. Defense Ministry chides PPP lawmakers for 'inappropriate' intelligence leaks

9. Ministry reaffirms its push for end-of-war declaration despite killing of fisheries official

10. Typhoid fever strikes inmates at labor camp in N. Pyongan Province

11. What to Expect From North Korea's Military Parade

12. Former U.S. Forces Korea CO: Pausing Exercises 'No Longer Relevant' to North Korea Nuclear Negotiations

13. Eroding the Regime's Information Monopoly: Cell Phones in North Korea

14. Pyongyang Gears Up for Major Workers' Party Anniversary Events

15. South Korea struggles to choose between US and China

16. N. Korean authorities step up efforts to stop smuggling along Chinese border

17. South Korea's request for submarine nuclear fuel from US denied: report

18. N. Korea's SLBM to complicate denuclearization efforts: ex-defense official

19. Nuclear-powered submarine development is pursued hastily

20. Yomiuri: S. Korea Sought to Arrange US Visit by Kim Jong-un's Sister before Election

21. Politbureau Speed Campaigns 8th Party Congress and Pregames Party's 75th

22. US missed 'golden opportunity' by walking out of Hanoi summit with N. Korea: Hecker

 

1. A Letter from the Son of the Man Killed, Burnt by North Korea on September 22, 2020: Restore My Father's Honor

East Asia Research · October 6, 2020

Thank you to Dr. Tara O for providing this translation of a very powerful letter to President Moon from the high school of the South korean civil servant who was murdered by the north Korean People's Army.  I truly hope this moves President Moon and I hope the disrespectful treatment of this man's memory is stopped. 

 

2.  Kim Jong-un promotes pair of advisers to North's highest military rank

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com by Shim Kyu-Seok

I am resending this because of the significance of the promotion Ri Pyong-chol.  Robert Collins provided this very important follow-up information that is very much worth sharing.

Ri Pyong-chol (alt. spelling Byong-chol) is currently the Director of the Korean Workers' Party Munitions Industry Department which is in charge of all weapons production. In this position, he oversees not only missile programs, but the nuclear program as well, and all other weapons programs. Other key personnel are certainly supervising components of those programs under Ri's Party oversight. Ri also attends with Kim Jong-un the observance of "new weapon systems."  Ri is also a member of the KWP Politburo, a vice-director of the KWP Central Committee, a member of the KWP Central Military Committee, a member of the DPRK State Affairs Commission, and a delegate of the 14th DPRK Supreme People's Assembly. In addition to being a former Commander of the North Korean Air Force, he is also rumored to be the father of Kim Jong-un's wife, Ri Sol-ju. 

He is without doubt the most significant advisor Kim Jong-un has in the face of crisis due to his high-level experience in both the military and the party. No one else compares even closely.

And I suppose they receive a marshal's baton.

Interesting fact here (I am assuming it is accurate but I defer to the north Korean leadership experts).  Note that one is the head of the missile program and the other is an artilleryman who is responsible for the short range missile program.  Will they be showing off some from their programs on October 10th?

 The two figures have surged through the ranks under Kim Jong-un's patronage, with their most recent promotion making them two of only seven people - besides the Kims themselves - t o become five-star generals in the country's history.

Even in North Korea's military bureaucracy, which is plagued by rank inflation, the rank of marshal has only been bestowed upon figures closest to the Kim family who were instrumental to their rise and consolidation of power.

 

3. 2020 Report on American Attitudes Toward the Korean Peninsula

keia.org

Some very interesting and useful information in this survey.  Some good signs for the alliance though there is always work to be done. Thanks to KEI for commissioning it.

The PDF of the 42 page report can be downloaded here

 

4. Ex-N.Korean Diplomat Defected to S.Korea

english.chosun.com

Did the lawmaker just put his life, and also importantly his daughter's,  in danger?  Recall his daughter was sent back to north Korea from Italy after Jo and his wife vanished.   I wonder what has happened to her?  It cannot be good.

 

5.  South Korean Activists Accuse China of Using Huawei to Hack Their Election

The Daily Beast · October 6, 2020

A colleague asked me if we should be concerned that Chinese may use Korean companies (e.g., LG) as a trojan horse to allow Huawei to back door access to the US?  I do not know the answer to that but we must be vigilant.  I just hope none of our election equipment comes from China.

 

6. A letter to Kim Jong-un

The Korea Times· by Choi Sung-jin · October 6, 2020

This is not in keeping with custom of the Trump-Kim letter writing.  But on a serious note it does provide an interesting assessment of the COVID and economic situation in the north.

 

7. Fitch Affirms Korea at 'AA-'; Outlook Stable

Fitch Ratings

Good economic news for South Korea.

 

8. Defense Ministry chides PPP lawmakers for 'inappropriate' intelligence leaks

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Shum Kyu-Seok

Perhaps they need more than a little chinding.

 

9. Ministry reaffirms its push for end-of-war declaration despite killing of fisheries official

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 7, 2020

Sigh...I guess the Moon administration has refused to re-examine its assumptions about the Kim  family regime.  This is going to come back to haunt the administration.

I really want to know what effect the ROK government thinks will be achieved by this action? I would like to hear from any advocates of the action as to what is desired to be achieved and what can actually be achieved.

Do we not understand the regime's political warfare strategies and how we play right into them?

 

10. Typhoid fever strikes inmates at labor camp in N. Pyongan Province

dailynk.com · October 6, 2020

A cover-up?

 

11.  What to Expect From North Korea's Military Parade

thediplomat.com · October 6, 2020

A former intelligence analyst doing what analysts to dest: providing an assessment.  Conclusion: "North Korea's upcoming celebrations will feature pageantry, elaborate displays of military prowess to impress and intimidate, and the potential for much more provocative and dangerous actions after the U.S. election."

 

12.  Former U.S. Forces Korea CO: Pausing Exercises 'No Longer Relevant' to North Korea Nuclear Negotiations

news.usni.org · by John Grady · October 6, 2020

I concur with General Brooks.  It is time to conclude the experiment of cancelling, suspending, and postponing major training exercises to try to influence north Korea behavior. The experiment has failed and has only resulted in declining readiness.  

Video at the link.

 

13. Eroding the Regime's Information Monopoly: Cell Phones in North Korea

nkhiddengulag.org · by Kathryn Wernke · October 6, 2020

Very important analysis from HRNK.  We should be asking why we are not exploiting the growth of smartphones in north Korea?  Anyone interested in educating the Korean people in north Korea about their human rights and conducting psychological operations (information and influence activities) to undermine the legitimacy of the regime and support maximum pressure and nurturing resistance for future action should be working to exploit all communications means in north Korea.

 

14. Pyongyang Gears Up for Major Workers' Party Anniversary Events

38north.org · by Martyn Williams · October 6, 2020

A bird's eye view of preparations.

 

15. South Korea struggles to choose between US and China

DW · by Deutsche Welle · October 6, 2020

My South Korean friends assure me there is no choice to be made, it was made in 1953.  But they are worried about the backlash of Chinese economic and political warfare that will be on a scale far surpassing the THAAD deployment debacle.  They rightly ask will the US come to its defense against Chinese political and economic warfare because it did not in the previous "conflict" which was not ended until Moon allegedly agreed to the "three no's" (according to China): no additional THAAD deployment, no integrated missile defense, and no trilateral alliance.   Chinese economic warfare forced the South to comply with Chinese political objectives (according to the Chinese).

 

16. N. Korean authorities step up efforts to stop smuggling along Chinese border

dailynk.com · by Jang Seul Gi · October 6, 2020

The safety valve for the function for the 400+ markets and the survival of the Korean people in the north continues to be shut off by the regime.  There will likely be long term consequences and the people.

 

17.  South Korea's request for submarine nuclear fuel from US denied: report

SCMP · by Park Chan-kyong · October 6, 2020

  • A Donga Ilbo report said the request was made through Kim Hyun-chong, the deputy chief of the National Security Office, who visited Washington last month
  • But the US says it has made it clear it will not transfer fuel for nuclear-powered submarines to any country, allies or not

 

18. N. Korea's SLBM to complicate denuclearization efforts: ex-defense official

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 7, 2020

Because this is one more indication that the north has no intention of denuclearizing the north.

 

19. Nuclear-powered submarine development is pursued hastily

donga.com

Frankly, I think it is wasteful for South Korea to build a nuclear powered submarine.  Do not build major weapons systems based on emotion.

 

20. Yomiuri: S. Korea Sought to Arrange US Visit by Kim Jong-un's Sister before Election

world.kbs.co.kr

Sensational reporting by the Korean press of a Japanese press story.  I would take this with a big grain of salt.  I cannot imagine the US attempting to do this.  What effect do they think would be achieved by this? Restart "stalled" nuclear talks? Really?  Yes we have allowed a sanctioned official into the US and even into the White House (Kim Yong-chol) but I cannot imagine us wanting to bring the sanctioned Kim Yo-jong into the US.

 

21. Politburu Speed Campaigns 8th Party Congress and Pregames Party's 75th

nkleadershipwatch.org

Again, I am including Robert Collins' comments about Ri's promotion.  He is that important:

“Ri Pyong-chol (alt. spelling Byong-chol) is currently the Director of the Korean Workers' Party Munitions Industry Department which is in charge of all weapons production. In this position, he oversees not only missile programs, but the nuclear program as well, and all other weapons programs. Other key personnel are certainly supervising components of those programs under Ri's Party oversight. Ri also attends with Kim Jong-un the observance of "new weapon systems."  Ri is also a member of the KWP Politburo, a vice-director of the KWP Central Committee, a member of the KWP Central Military Committee, a member of the DPRK State Affairs Commission, and a delegate of the 14th DPRK Supreme People's Assembly. In addition to being a former Commander of the North Korean Air Force, he is also rumored to be the father of Kim Jong-un's wife, Ri Sol-ju.” 

 

22. US missed 'golden opportunity' by walking out of Hanoi summit with N. Korea: Hecker

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · October 7, 2020

I am sorry Dr. Hecker but Kim Jong-un has missed every opportunity due to his inability to allow substantive negotiations to take place in good faith.

--------

 

"It was indicative of the U.S. Army's basic misunderstanding of what Special Forces really are, that the official lineage of Special Forces is traced back to the 1st Special Service Force.  The OSS was a much more legitimate ancestor of today's Green Berets, but the problem with the U.S. Army recognition of that fact is a syndrome that has wider implications.  OSS was a hybrid with strong political and intelligence flavors.

- LTG (USA-RET) William P. Yarborough

Southern Pines, NC

December 1982

 

"An opinion can be argued with; a conviction best shot." 

- T.E. Lawrence

 

"There is an immutable law of the SOF bureaucracy which states that an operation becomes more feasible the farther aware one is from the physical risks involved in that operation."

 - CPT William H. Burgess III, April  1986

Categories: News