News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. FDD | UN Report Highlights How North Korea's Embassies Help Pyongyang Flout Sanctions
2. Three Things the U.S. Government Can Do Now to Ruin Kim Jong-un Financially
3. What Should Be on the Agenda for US-Korea Relations?
4. A practical approach to North Korea for the next US president
5. Post-election U.S. likely to see changes in N. Korea policy: experts
6. 3 mysteries cloud South Korean's shooting death by North Korea
7. North Korea's Short-Range Ballistic Missiles: They Can't "Evade Detection" and Are Still Vulnerable to Interception
8. Top DPRK leader wishes U.S. president recovery from COVID-19
9. [VOA: Washington Talk/English] The murder of the Korean people...
10. New Eighth Army commander seeks 'rigorous, realistic' training for US, South Korea troops
11. Pompeo's visit to Seoul to focus on regional cooperation: Stilwell
12. 'She has not been demoted': Kim Jong-un's sister Kim Yo Jong makes first appearance since July
13. South Korea Doesn't Need U.S. Military Babysitting
14. Unusual Submarine Likely To Increase Threat From North Korea
15. Nobody ever said Kim Il-sung could teleport | East Asia Forum
1. FDD | UN Report Highlights How North Korea's Embassies Help Pyongyang Flout Sanctions
fdd.org · by Mathew Ha · October 1, 2020
Important analysis from my colleague Mathew Ha.
2. Three Things the U.S. Government Can Do Now to Ruin Kim Jong-un Financially
https://www.nkhiddengulag.org/blog/three-things-the-us-government-can-do-now-to-ruin-kim-jong-un-financially – by Jeune Kim – 1 October 2020
More excellent work from the HRNK team.
Excerpts:
The three following recommendations specify what the U.S. government can do now to ruin Kim Jong-un financially:
1. Federal Recognition and Regulation of Cryptocurrency
2. Raise the Legal Stakes for North Korea's Enablers
3. Penalize Chinese Banks and Financial Institutions for Violating or Failing to Enforce International Sanctions
My thoughts from four years ago for a strategic strangulation campaign: https://www.fpri.org/article/2016/03/a-strategic-strangulation-campaign-for-north-korea-is-the-international-community-ready-for-what-may-come-next/
3. What Should Be on the Agenda for US-Korea Relations?
thediplomat.com · by Troy Stangarone · October 2, 2020
Some interesting findings and data about US attitudes toward Korea.
4. A practical approach to North Korea for the next US president
https://thebulletin.org/2020/10/a-practical-approach-to-north-korea-for-the-next-us-president/ - by Joseph Yun and Frank Aum – 2 October 2020
I expect both Joe and Frank will have prominent positions in a Biden administration.
Key excerpts:
What might work? A significant impediment for the United States is that it continues to narrowly limit its policy options while North Korean capabilities expand unabated. Washington's window of discourse on North Korea policy largely consists of: Pressure the Kim regime through sanctions; don't legitimize or reward it until preconditions are met; and don't make any concessions until the North takes significant denuclearization measures first. To achieve any sustained results, these policy boundaries must be substantially widened to include more realistic and practical measures. We, along with our colleagues at the United States Institute of Peace, explored many of these issues in a recent report, "A Peace Regime for the Korean Peninsula."
Prioritize peace in parallel with denuclearization.
Ensure reciprocity and proportionality.
Emphasize realistic, short-term security payoffs while playing the long game on denuclearization.
Enhance buy-in from regional partners.
5. Post-election U.S. likely to see changes in N. Korea policy: experts
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 2, 2020
This is probably likely: "They also noted the North Korean issue would likely be put aside in the early stages of the new administration, which they said will be too caught up in dealing with its own domestic issues such as the COVID-19 pandemic." Ironically you could make a similar statement about north Korea though I think we still might see a "welcome or congratulatory gift from the Kim family regime to the election victor whether it is Trump or Biden.
6. 3 mysteries cloud South Korean's shooting death by North Korea
asia.nikkei.com – by Sotaro Suzuki – 2 October 2020
I really wish the ROK government would not continue the narrative of defection or put the blame for the murder of a Korean civil servant on the shoulders of the victim.
Key questions: Despite a rare apology from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un that averted a further deterioration of bilateral relations, the family and others seek answers to three questions: Was the official really defecting to North Korea? Why was no rescue attempt made? And why did it take President Moon Jae-in days to address the slaying publicly?
In defense of the ROK Navy - the timing and capabilities are key - when did they know about a man overboard? Did they have ships in the area that could respond? If their knowledge of the incident came from SIGINT with no knowledge of the man overboard it logically and naturally took time to analyze those intercepts and hindered any possible response. And lastly searching for a man overboard is inherently difficult and unfortunately too often we lose men at sea when they do go overboard.
7. North Korea's Short-Range Ballistic Missiles: They Can't "Evade Detection" and Are Still Vulnerable to Interception
38north.org · by Michael Elleman · October 2, 2020
8. Top DPRK leader wishes U.S. president recovery from COVID-19
Xinhua | English.news.cn
A savvy move by Kim.
9. [VOA: Washington Talk/English] The murder of the Korean people...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEbb0vrB2JE
At the link is the 20 minute video of this week's edition of the Voice of America's Washington Talk. The primary target audience of this VOA broadcast is the elite in Pyongyang.
Jean Lee (the former AP Bureau Chief in Pyongyang) and I speak with VOA broadcaster and host Kim Young Gyo about the recent murder of the South Korean civil servant at the hands of the north Korea military.
It is broadcast in English with Korean subtitles.
10. New Eighth Army commander seeks 'rigorous, realistic' training for US, South Korea troops
Stars and Stripes – by Kim Gamel – 2 October 2020
11. Pompeo's visit to Seoul to focus on regional cooperation: Stilwell
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 3, 2020
Regional cooperation is important but the alliances first and always.
12. 'She has not been demoted': Kim Jong-un's sister Kim Yo Jong makes first appearance since July
nationalpost.com – by John Herskovitz – 2 October 2020
How many times are we going to keep getting excited about such "disappearances?"
13. South Korea Doesn't Need U.S. Military Babysitting
Foreign Policy · by Doug Bandow · October 2, 2020
Sigh... such an insult to the alliance and the ROK and US militaries. I know Mr. Bandow is a former defense official but I do not think he understands the military alliance and the relationship between our two militaries. We are not babysitting the South. That is simply insulting.
Yes, Seoul is rich and it should be able to deter Pyongyang by itself. The problem with that is deterrence is in the eye of the target of deterrence. My concern, which comes from knowledge from escapees (defectors) that what deters Kim the most is the presence of US forces. The regime knows the north cannot win a war if the South has the support of the US.
And most importantly it is in US interests to deter war on the Korean peninsula.
Yes, circumstances change and the alliance must evolve. That is why we are pursuing OPCON transition which will result in a change of command with a ROK general officer assuming command of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command, the command charged by both nations with deterrence and defense of the ROK.
14. Unusual Submarine Likely To Increase Threat From North Korea
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2020/10/unusual-submarine-likely-to-increase-threat-from-north-korea/ - by HI Sutton – 2 October 2020
Interesting. I would like to hear from naval and intelligence experts.
15. Nobody ever said Kim Il-sung could teleport | East Asia Forum
eastasiaforum.org · by Martin Weiser · October 3, 2020
An interesting critique of how we interpret north Korean news and information.
"The battlefield is a scene of constant chaos. The winner will be the one who controls that chaos, both his own and the enemies."
- Napoleon
"The soldier who fights to death never dies, but the soldier who fights for existence never truly exists."
-Admiral Yi Sun-shin
"Education should implant a will and a facility for learning; it should produce not learned but learning people. In times of change, learners inherit the earth, while the learned find themselves equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists."
- Eric Hoffer