News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
1. U.S. targets Iran-backed militias in Iraq, Syria strikes
2. U.S. Conducts Airstrikes in Syria and Iraq Against Iranian-Backed Militias
3. With Reagan's Arrival, 2 US Carriers Are Now Supporting Afghanistan Troop Withdrawal
4. Ghani: Afghanistan having '1861 moment' amid U.S. troop withdrawal
5. Crossing the Red Line: Behind China’s Takeover of Hong Kong
6. Digital Authoritarianism is a National Security Threat, Pentagon Cyber Leader Says
7. US remains the world’s dominant power in cyberspace but China is catching up, report says
8. Portable Nuclear Reactor Program Sparks Controversy
9. A Measure Short of War: The Return of Great-Power Subversion
10. At age one hundred, Chinese Communist Party is both the authoritarian world champion—and vulnerable
11. Solving the Mystery of Havana Syndrome
12. Toning down China’s wolf warriors outrages patriots
13. U.S. and Taiwan Set Date to Revive Trade and Investment Talks
14. 'Defend Forward': What the CIA has done since 1947
15. Special Operations News Update - Monday, June 28, 2021 | SOF News
16. We’re Not Ready for Another Pandemic
17. FDD | New FDD Report Warns of Devastating Costs of Cyberattacks on Private Sector
1. U.S. targets Iran-backed militias in Iraq, Syria strikes
The Washington Post · by Alex HortonJune 28, 2021 · June 28, 2021
Excerpts: “The Pentagon has monitored the escalation of small-drone warfare after the Islamic State flew terrifying sorties of hobbyist drone aircraft against Iraqi troops in the battle to retake territory from the group.
Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, the top U.S. military commander in the Middle East, told reporters on a Syria trip last month that the Pentagon is looking for ways to cut command-and-control links between a drone and its operator, improve radar sensors to quickly identify the threat as it approaches and find effective ways to bring down the aircraft.
“We’re open to all kinds of things,” he said, according to the Associated Press. “Still, I don’t think we’re where we want to be.”
The Biden administration in February ordered airstrikes against Iranian proxies in Syria, killing an undisclosed number of militants.
2. U.S. Conducts Airstrikes in Syria and Iraq Against Iranian-Backed Militias
WSJ · by Michael R. Gordon
Excerpt: “‘The United States took necessary, appropriate, and deliberate action designed to limit the risk of escalation...’ ”
— Pentagon spokesman John Kirby
I am reminded of this quote:
"It’s limited war for Americans, and total war for those fighting Americans. The United States has more power; its foes have more willpower."
-Dominic Tierney
3. With Reagan's Arrival, 2 US Carriers Are Now Supporting Afghanistan Troop Withdrawal
military.com · by Konstantin Toropin · June 25, 2021
4. Ghani: Afghanistan having '1861 moment' amid U.S. troop withdrawal
Politico · June 25, 2021
An ominous remark, I guess civil war is on the horizon. But rather than one faction seceding both factions seek to dominate.
5. Crossing the Red Line: Behind China’s Takeover of Hong Kong
The New York Times · by Chris Buckley, Vivian Wang and Austin Ramzy · June 28, 2021
Whose red line?
If it was years in the making and we did not see the indications and warnings I wonder if that was because Hong Kong was not a priority for intelligence collection. Everything cannot be a priority and we have to allocate our finite resources to the most important potential threats. Some will chalk this up to an intelligence failure but is that really the case?
Are there any lessons here that apply to Taiwan? Are the situations and conditions similar or different?
And of course the big question: What else are we missing?
6. Digital Authoritarianism is a National Security Threat, Pentagon Cyber Leader Says
defenseone.com · by Mila Jasper
Excerpts: “Digital authoritarianism is a term that describes regimes that use technology to control and repress their populations. While China is certainly not the only purveyor of digital authoritarianism, it is certainly the largest.
At Defense One’s Tech Summit event Thursday, Mieke Eoyang, deputy assistant defense secretary for cyber policy, explained how digital authoritarianism poses a threat to national security, and what the Defense Department can do about it. Eoyang described digital authoritarianism as contrary to the values those at DOD are sworn to defend.
It "really poses a national security challenge to us in the United States. It closes space. It makes it more dangerous for Americans who may choose to speak out against what they see as human rights abuses in other countries,” Eoyang said.
“And so that, you know, that goes against our core values inside the U.S., and also it represents a…competitive challenge to U.S. technology companies when we see countries like China exporting this technology all around the world. With their technology it’s not just neutral, it does come with the ability to engage in this kind of digital repression,” she said. “So we see this as a challenge to the department, our operations and our values.”
7. US remains the world’s dominant power in cyberspace but China is catching up, report says
SCMP · by Dewey Sim · June 28, 2021
Excerpt: “The main reason [for US superiority] is the relative standing of the two nations’ digital economies, where the US remains far advanced despite China’s digital progress,” said Austin, a senior fellow with IISS.”
8. Portable Nuclear Reactor Program Sparks Controversy
nationaldefensemagazine.org · by Mandy Mayfield · June 28, 2021
Excerpts: “Nuclear power is “orders of magnitude more energy dense than any other known technology,” Waksman told National Defense. “That allows the possibility to provide resilient power for years and years, without needing to refuel. … Refueling can be a real burden in remote areas.”
The Strategic Capabilities Office sees three main applications for the initial capability, Waksman noted.
“When we talk about the low hanging fruit for early applications for this, [the first] is remote locations — think the Arctic where there is a need for large amounts of power — but it’s hard to get power there now,” he said.
Another is what is referred to as the “strategic support area,’” which provides power for equipment that is mission essential, such as radar systems, he said.
The third key application for a portable reactor is its ability to aid in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, Waksman said.
Over the past few years there have been a number of incidents throughout the United States including hurricanes and cold snaps that have caused massive power outages over large areas.
9. A Measure Short of War: The Return of Great-Power Subversion
Foreign Affairs · by Jill Kastner and William C. Wohlforth · June 24, 2021
Subversion is an essential element of political warfare.
Excerpts: “Subversion can be classified into three levels of severity. The first level involves propaganda, a tactic as old as speech itself. In 1570, when Pope Pius V issued his papal bull declaring Queen Elizabeth I a heretic and calling on good English Catholics to remove her from the throne, he was engaging in subversive propaganda. The same was true during the Cold War when Radio Liberty beamed anticommunist broadcasts into the Soviet Union. Level 1 subversion can entail one state’s open endorsement of opposition candidates or parties in another country’s election, as when Stalin publicly backed the third-party candidacy of Henry Wallace in his run against U.S. President Harry Truman in 1948.
...
At all three levels, the goals of subversion can vary. Subversive activities may be used to weaken a target by sowing internal discord so that it is distracted from pursuing its interests on some other front. This is what Elizabeth I was doing when she funded mercenaries to aid Dutch Protestant rebels—she hoped Spain would become consumed with the uprising and shelve its plans to restore Catholicism in England by securing her overthrow—and what Russia is attempting today with its support for populist nationalist movements in Western democracies. Alternatively, a country may intend to change another country’s foreign policy by secretly supporting one side of a domestic debate. During the Cold War, Moscow provided, through its front organizations, logistical, organizational, and financial support to the peace movement in the West. More recently, it may have interfered in the 2016 Brexit referendum, encouraging the British public to vote to leave the EU.
Sometimes, subversion has a maximalist goal: changing the nature of the regime itself. In 1875, Bismarck engineered a war scare, insinuating that Germany was about to launch a preventive attack against France. His goal was to frighten French voters away from choosing conservative monarchists, whose victory seemed to promise a more formidable great-power competitor across the Rhine. The gambit worked. The French press soon took to calling Bismarck “the Great Elector of France.”handwringing and teeth gnashing. In recent years, deepfakes—fake video clips that look real—have raised the prospect of frighteningly convincing disinformation. But states will find a way to push back, perhaps harnessing the very artificial intelligence used to create deepfakes as a tool for their destruction.
...
The history of subversion should also offer reason to relax about new technologies. Someday, no doubt, a subverter will wield a new technology that yet again sets alarm bells ringing. From the printing press to radio, from the mimeograph machine to the Internet, technological change has invariably opened up new avenues for manipulation and subversion—and set off renewed handwringing and teeth gnashing. In recent years, deepfakes—fake video clips that look real—have raised the prospect of frighteningly convincing disinformation. But states will find a way to push back, perhaps harnessing the very artificial intelligence used to create deepfakes as a tool for their destruction.
States will always suffer from internal vulnerabilities that can be exploited by outside actors.
Those worried about subversion should also remember that politics and statecraft can still keep it under control. Subversion is the continuation of great-power rivalry by other means, and the nature of the emerging rivalries between the United States and both China and Russia shows a reassuring need for a great deal of cooperation. On climate change, arms control, and nuclear proliferation, the great powers will be forced to work together. Much of what China and Russia want to achieve on the world stage will require bargaining with the United States and its allies. And both Beijing and Moscow surely realize that if they rely on subversion to the point where their trustworthiness is destroyed, the possibility of dealmaking will disappear. The old rules of cost-benefit calculation will still apply, preventing subversion from running rampant.
And I would add with absolutely no apologies to Leon Trotsky: America may not be interested in irregular, unconventional, and political warfare butthey are being practiced around the world by those who are interested in them – namely the revisionist, rogue, and revolutionary powers and violent extremist organizations.
And although the 2017 National Security Strategy is no longer in effect we should still heed these wise words: "A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
10. At age one hundred, Chinese Communist Party is both the authoritarian world champion—and vulnerable
atlanticcouncil.org · June 27, 2021
Only 100? So young and immature. (note attempt at sarcasm)
Hmmm.... so can this be exploited?
It must be said this bluntly: The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which turns one hundred this week, represents history’s most successful authoritarians.
So, why does Chinese President Xi Jinping seem so uneasy?
...
Xi likely has a window of only about a decade before his country’s demographic decline, its structural economic downturn, and inevitable domestic upheavals threaten to reduce the historic possibility currently presented to him by his country’s technological advance, its geopolitical gains, and his own current hold on power.
This man in a hurry sees an inflection point to be seized, but only if he acts with a quick, decisive purposefulness and, where necessary, ruthlessness.
And under Xi, China isn’t only sprinting to seize a window of opportunity. Xi, Blanchette writes, at the same time has put China “in a race to determine if its many strengths can outstrip the pathologies that Xi himself has introduced into the system.”
In short, the test is whether authoritarianism’s most compelling success story can overcome its fundamental failings.
11. Solving the Mystery of Havana Syndrome
Psychology Today · by Eric Haseltine · June 23, 2021
Perhaps we could figure this out and defend our people.
Excerpts: “ If my conclusions about the source of the Havana syndrome are correct, then we could start to detect the dangerous RF signals by building a special receiver that, like the Russian espionage gear described in my book, filters out innocent ghost signals to reveal the malicious signals underneath. Then, once detected, conventional direction-finding gear might pinpoint the source of the transmissions and lead us to their operators.
Notice I just said “start to detect” and “might pinpoint.” The reason for those equivocations is that Russian intelligence tradecraft (for example) doesn’t rely on just one “hide” (such as masking with ghost signals), but layers many “hides” on top of each other to make it extraordinarily difficult for victims of their espionage to detect attacks.
12. Toning down China’s wolf warriors outrages patriots
asiatimes.com · by Jing Xuan Teng · June 28, 2021
Excerpts: “Beijing has often encouraged nationalism when convenient, including online campaigns that flared this year for boycotts of foreign clothing brands that made statements about avoiding cotton from China’s Xinjiang, due to allegations of forced labor.
But even some of China’s most strident apologists have admitted that toned-down rhetoric would be more fitting for the major-power status the country claims.
Hu Xijin, editor of the nationalist tabloid Global Times, wrote last month that government social media accounts should “hold high the banner of humanitarianism” after a Communist Party-run Weibo account posted a mocking comparison between a Chinese rocket launch and the cremation of Covid-19 victims in India.
“Sometimes this ‘wolf warrior’ sentiment can get out of hand,” Jonathan Hassid, a professor of political science at Iowa State University told AFP.
13. U.S. and Taiwan Set Date to Revive Trade and Investment Talks
WSJ · by Chao Deng
Excerpts: “Last week, Beijing sent 28 military aircraft into airspace near Taiwan—the largest number of such sorties reported in a single day—after the Group of Seven leaders issued a communiqué expressing a unified stance on the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
The U.S. is Taiwan’s second-largest trading partner. Taiwan is the world’s biggest supplier of advanced semiconductors, exporting billions of dollars worth in chips and computer and telecommunications equipment to the U.S. last year.
The U.S. hasn’t had an embassy in Taiwan since it agreed to downgrade ties with Taipei more than 40 years ago, a condition set by Beijing for formal diplomatic relations. It set up a private company staffed with diplomats to handle relations with the island instead.
14. 'Defend Forward': What the CIA has done since 1947
Washington Examiner · by Marc Polymeropoulos · June 28, 2021
Of course it is prohibited from acting on US soil so it must defend forward (Apologies for the snarky comment).
Interesting conclusion: “The Biden administration is staffed by seasoned national security professionals, like the president himself. I am hoping they embrace the "Defend Forward” concept. As of now, there are mixed signals. The total Afghan withdrawal is a colossal mistake. It is the antithesis of this strategy. Yet, our counter-Russia policy seems to have "Defend Forward" as a guiding principle. It includes offensive cyberactivity. It involves exposing Russian malfeasance globally and helping our allies on the front lines in Europe and Eurasia. Kudos to the administration, and I hope they do more to ensure that Russia is contained. But on Afghanistan, with the stakes so high, why take a knee and go home?
15. Special Operations News Update - Monday, June 28, 2021 | SOF News
sof.news · by SOF News · June 28, 2021
16. We’re Not Ready for Another Pandemic
defenseone.com · by The Atlantic
And I would ask: Can we ever be ready? Even sufficiently ready?
17. FDD | New FDD Report Warns of Devastating Costs of Cyberattacks on Private Sector
fdd.org · June 28, 2021
The PDF of the report can be downloaded here:
Excerpts: “The United States witnessed a sample of the real-world effects of cyberattacks with the ransomware attacks on Colonial Pipeline and meat producer JBS, but if a ransomware or other type of attack disrupts electricity generation or transmission, the economic devastation could surpass that of Hurricane Katrina, the authors warn. This estimate is derived from Intangic’s actuarial model, which has accurately predicted the financial and economic impact of business disruptions from cyberattacks.
Nolan and Fixler explain that the market to-date has failed to incentivize cybersecurity investments because neither regulators nor investors can measure “objectively and transparently whether companies are properly managing digital technology and related risks.” Except in limited cases, companies are not required to disclose cyber breaches or vulnerabilities that directly affect their financial health and business operations.
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"Either write something worth reading or do something worth writing."
- Benjamin Franklin
"No one starts a war-or rather, no one in his senses ought to do so-without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by that war and how he intends to conduct it."
-Clausewitz
“Remind me to write a popular article on the compulsive reading of news. The theme will be that most neuroses and some psychoses can be traced to the unnecessary and unhealthy habit of daily walling in the troubles and sins of five billion strangers. The title is ‘Gossip Unlimited’ - no, make that ‘Gossip Gone wild.’”
-Robert Heinlein - Stranger In A Strange land