Small Wars Journal

06/26/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Sat, 06/26/2021 - 1:06pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Opinion | Where Did the Coronavirus Come From? What We Already Know Is Troubling.

2.  On the Front Line: A Night With Afghan Commandos

3. Here's How Biden Can Wage Political Warfare Against Putin

4. Statement by Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Assessment

5. Why the Pentagon UFO report is deeply troubling for US security experts

6. Xinhua Headlines: Why Western political theories can't explain success of century-old CPC

7. Japan ratifies world's biggest free trade deal involving China, ASEAN

8. Moscow Is Using Memory Diplomacy to Export Its Narrative to the World

9. How a Liberal Think Tank Did China's Bidding on Climate Change

10. AFSOC at "Strategic Inflection Point"

11. Is Washington Right to Leave Afghanistan? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts

12. Indonesia, U.S Break Ground on Joint Strategic Maritime Centre

13. Spare Army counterinsurgency tasks, police does it better. Look at Punjab, Andhra, Tripura

14. Comrades in Tweets? The Contours and Limits of China-Russia Cooperation on Digital Propaganda

15. Eddie Gallagher Vs. the World: After War Crimes Trial, Notorious SEAL Is Out to Settle Scores

16. How to spot the latest trends in digital disinformation

17. China-U.S. Rivalry Brings Promise of Innovation Investors Crave

18. They Seemed Like Democratic Activists. They Were Secretly Conservative Spies.

19. The Situation in Afghanistan Is Much Worse Than You Realize

20. Analysis | The most brutal debunking of Trump’s fraud claims yet — from Republicans

 

1. Opinion | Where Did the Coronavirus Come From? What We Already Know Is Troubling.

The New York Times · by Zeynep Tufekci · June 25, 2021

Troubling is right.

 

2.  On the Front Line: A Night With Afghan Commandos

The New York Times · by Jim Huylebroek · June 25, 2021

Excerpts: “The night missions, witnessed by a photojournalist with The New York Times, are seen by Afghan military officials as key to hitting the Taliban when the insurgents are not expecting it, or at the least disrupting future attacks on government forces.

But these tactics — perfected by the United States over its long wars in both Afghanistan and Iraq — have had arguable if little success, as insurgencies in both countries continue to adapt and endure.

Night raids in Afghanistan especially have turned people, particularly those in the country’s rural areas, against the government and international forces. But the presence of these units helped government forces hold Lashkar Gah last month. For now, it is one of their best and limited ways of striking the insurgents in this two-decade-long war as government-held territory shrinks and units are stretched thin.

But even going on the offensive has deadly consequences, especially as Taliban forces have become even more emboldened with the departure of international forces. Earlier this month, more than 20 Afghan commandos were killed when their offensive operation to retake a district in the country’s northwest was derailed by a vicious Taliban counterattack.

 

3. Here's How Biden Can Wage Political Warfare Against Putin

thebulwark.com · by Kristofer Harrison · June 18, 2021

I missed this when it was published last week. 

The five "strategies:"

(1) America should start mucking about in his internal affairs

(2) The Biden administration should be pouring gasoline all over Belarus.

(3) Go after Russian corruption like crazy.

(4) Find a way to pull the plug on the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline project.

(5) Watch to see if Russian soldiers start coming home from Syria and Ukraine in body bags, and, when they do, make sure every man, woman, and child in Russia hears about it.

 

4. Statement by Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Assessment

defense.gov  · June 25, 2021

UAP....  

The 9 page report can be downloaded here.

 

5. Why the Pentagon UFO report is deeply troubling for US security experts

The Guardian · by Julian Borger · June 25, 2021

Excerpts: “It said there was no evidence that the objects were linked to another country such as Russia or China – but it did not rule out the possibility.

...

“And if a foreign power was actually testing really hi-tech equipment, they would be testing hi-tech equipment in a protected area of their country that the United States or other foreign powers couldn’t see,” Weinstein added. “If you get something that secret that can work that well, you’re not going to show it to anybody until you absolutely need it.”

Another option is that a foreign power had developed unmanned aircraft that could spoof US radar and instruments into seeing the incredible speeds and changes of direction that have been reported.

...

Thomas Bania, professor of astronomy at Boston University, said: “Without the range, then one simply cannot tell speed, acceleration, etc. So the interpretation of speeds and turns (ie accelerations) that our US technology cannot match is just bogus. No need for invoking a foreign power with superior – much superior – technology.”

“Were it me running their electronic warfare show, I would build small drones and stuff them with electronics that would monitor and record everything our military radars would send at them,” Bania said. “Then I would get busy reverse engineering what our weaponry did. Then I would develop protocols to spoof radar locks back at us giving ranges that would imply these ridiculous motions.”

 

6.  Xinhua Headlines: Why Western political theories can't explain success of century-old CPC

xinhuanet.com

Hmmm..... about simply authoritarianism rules?

And rather than think about 5000 years of Chinese history we can now consider modern China has very young with only 100 years of experience under the CCP. It is still early in its history.

 

7.  Japan ratifies world's biggest free trade deal involving China, ASEAN

thejakartapost.com · by June 26, 2021

 

8. Moscow Is Using Memory Diplomacy to Export Its Narrative to the World

Foreign Policy · by Jade McGlynn · June 25, 2021

Excerpts: “The tone is one of high messianism—but a preacher needs converts to justify his cause.

It is difficult to assess exactly how successful Russian memory diplomacy has been at converting its targets; although there has been obvious success in exporting Russian commemorative traditions and activities, in most countries, the participants comprise compatriots or people who were already sympathetic.

But culture and history wars are raging in many countries, creating fertile ground for future Russian efforts. In many ways, the ability of other countries to withstand Russian efforts to promote an archaic revisionist view of the world through flawed historical narratives will depend on whether those countries can resist using history as a vehicle for politics themselves.

 

9. How a Liberal Think Tank Did China's Bidding on Climate Change

freebeacon.com · by Collin Anderson · June 24, 2021

Ouch. Quite a critique.

 

10. AFSOC at "Strategic Inflection Point"

dvidshub.net

Excerpts: “Operating in contested environments, Slife continued, may require changes in how AFSOC deploys its forces.

“To the extent that we can, we need to be independent of main operating bases such as large runways, large fixed facilities,” said Slife. “We need to get smaller, lighter, and more expeditionary to succeed.”

“It’s imperative to lower our signature,” he continued. “We have to be able to blend into the noise both physically and electronically around the globe, wherever we want to compete.”

In a fiscally-constrained environment, Robinson asked Slife what areas of AFSOC might still see growth.

“Going forward I think we need to talk about language,” said Slife. “We need to take a look at ourselves in AFSOC and decide to what degree do we need regionally specialized forces who have deepened understanding of regions and cultures and nations inside those regions.”

When asked what AFSOC needs from its sister services in terms of cyber, electronic and communication capabilities, Slife stated he is not interested in growing an organic capability.

 

11.  Is Washington Right to Leave Afghanistan? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts

Foreign Affairs

This is a fascinating who's who of experts. I have never seen more diverse views over an issue expressed in a single article.

Please go to the link to click on each expert for the details of their views and to view the very unique and interesting graphic chart the expert views. 

 

12. Indonesia, U.S Break Ground on Joint Strategic Maritime Centre

US News & World Reports

It will be interesting to see the Chinese reaction to this.

 

13. Spare Army counterinsurgency tasks, police does it better. Look at Punjab, Andhra, Tripura

theprint.in · June 25, 2021

Who is best suited to conduct COIN? I think the answer is "it depends." This is why continuous assessments of the situation, conditions, and environment are critical.

But I would say that if the situation allows the less military involvement the better.

 

14. Comrades in Tweets? The Contours and Limits of China-Russia Cooperation on Digital Propaganda

carnegie.ru · by Alexander Gabuev, Leonid Kovachich

From Carnegie's Moscow Center in Russia.

Excerpt: “Shared Goals Yet Constrained Cooperation

At root, both Russian and Chinese leaders are driven by great power calculus. Therefore, they want to maintain strategic autonomy above all else, including in pushing back against the United States and its allies. Rhetorical support from a like-minded great power is nice to have, but it is not indispensable when it comes to the global information domain, an area unregulated by international legal norms. On the UN Security Council, by contrast, Moscow and Beijing frequently act far more in tandem because of the bureaucratic nature of the organization and both countries’ unique position as permanent members. For now, however, Chinese and Russian influence operations can be—and continue to be—conducted independently.

 

15. Eddie Gallagher Vs. the World: After War Crimes Trial, Notorious SEAL Is Out to Settle Scores

military.com · by Stephen Losey · June 26, 2021

Will he dig his own grave with new accusations and information?

 

16. How to spot the latest trends in digital disinformation

atlanticcouncil.org · by Nick Fouriezos · June 25, 2021

The full event can be viewed at this link: 

 

17. China-U.S. Rivalry Brings Promise of Innovation Investors Crave

Bloomberg · by Eric Lam · June 25, 2021

This is concerning: “The contest heralds the prospect of new national champions emerging in China. Huynh said he favors equities in the clean energy, consumer electronics and entertainment sectors, and that investors should increase their China exposure over time alongside their existing U.S. holdings.

Citigroup economist Li-Gang Liu sees a possible “Sputnik moment” for Chinese innovation, with the country’s goal of increased self-reliance triggering an era of rapid technological progress similar to the U.S.-Soviet rivalry that spurred the 1950s Space Race. Progress is already apparent, as just last month China’s Zhurong rover joined the U.S.’s Perseverance on Mars.

 

18.  They Seemed Like Democratic Activists. They Were Secretly Conservative Spies.

The New York Times · by Adam Goldman and Mark Mazzetti · June 25, 2021

No surprise especially considering those involved.

Excerpts: “At the center of the scheme was an unusual cast: a former British spy connected to the security contractor Erik Prince, a wealthy heiress to the Gore-Tex fortune and undercover operatives like Mr. Maier and Ms. LaRocca who used Wyoming as a base to insinuate themselves into the political fabric of this state and at least two others, Colorado and Arizona.

In more than two dozen interviews and a review of federal election records, The New York Times reconstructed many of the operatives’ interactions in Wyoming and other states — mapping out their associations and likely targets — and spoke to people with whom they discussed details of their spying operation. Publicly available documents in Wyoming also tied Mr. Maier and Ms. LaRocca to an address in Cody used by the former spy, Richard Seddon.

What the effort accomplished — and how much information Mr. Seddon’s operatives gathered — is unclear. Sometimes, their tactics were bumbling and amateurish. But the operation’s use of spycraft to manipulate the politics of several states over years greatly exceeds the tactics of more traditional political dirty tricks operations.

 

19. The Situation in Afghanistan Is Much Worse Than You Realize

vitalinterests.thedispatch.com · by Thomas Joscelyn

This is quite an accusation against the US MIlitary. Will we see another Pentagon Papers?

 

20. Analysis | The most brutal debunking of Trump’s fraud claims yet — from Republicans

The Washington Post · by Aaron Blake · June 24, 2021

I do not mean this as a partisan statement (I remain a lifelong independent who voted neither for Trump nor Biden, nor Trump or Clinton in 2016). I offer this only as one who remains unshaken in my belief in the strength and brilliance of our federal democratic republic system and the American experiment in pursuit of our more perfect union).

The big lie is a threat to democracy. However, I fear those who believe in it are going to be hard pressed to "unbelieve it." Perhaps it can be debunked by other Republicans but I fear it is too ingrained in people's psyche and part of their (at least political) identity.

 

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“So live your life that the fear of death can never enter your heart. Trouble no one about their religion; respect others in their view, and demand that they respect yours. Love your life, perfect your life, beautify all things in your life. Seek to make your life long and its purpose in the service of your people. Prepare a noble death song for the day when you go over the great divide. Always give a word or a sign of salute when meeting or passing a friend, even a stranger, when in a lonely place. Show respect to all people and grovel to none. When you arise in the morning give thanks for the food and for the joy of living. If you see no reason for giving thanks, the fault lies only in yourself. Abuse no one and no thing, for abuse turns the wise ones to fools and robs the spirit of its vision. When it comes your time to die, be not like those whose hearts are filled with the fear of death, so that when their time comes they weep and pray for a little more time to live their lives over again in a different way. Sing your death song and die like a hero going home.”

- Chief Tecumseh

 

"War's one of those things, don't you think, where everyone always thinks they're in the right have you noticed that? Nobody ever says we're the bad guys, we're going to beat shit out of the good guys."

-Caryl Churchill da

Categories: News