Small Wars Journal

06/26/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Sat, 06/26/2021 - 12:33pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. U.S. must consider reconstituting six-party talks with N. Korea: former U.S. envoys

2. Patterns of Impunity: Human Rights in North Korea and the Role of the U.S. Special Envoy

3. North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Complex: Assessing Activity at the Radiochemical Laboratory

4. North Korean Stability is in the Eye of the Beholder

5. Kim Jong-un's Demand for Self-Reliance Risks North Korean Lives

6. Kim Jong-un’s COVID-19 Policy Could Lead to Mass Starvation

7. What Is the North Korea’s Recently Minted 'General Secretary' up To?

8. South Korea open to dialogue with North despite latest snub, report says

9. North Korea defined by 'hybridity,' South Korean analyst says in new book

10. South Korea’s needless censorship of North Korean material

11. Is North Korea Struggling to Move Toward the Future?

12. A New Chapter in U.S.-South Korea Relations: Seoul Embraces a Broader Role in Asia

 

1. U.S. must consider reconstituting six-party talks with N. Korea: former U.S. envoys

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · June 26, 2021

Would a new 6 party talk format be 5 against 1 or 3 against 3? Or even 4 against 2?

 

2. Patterns of Impunity: Human Rights in North Korea and the Role of the U.S. Special Envoy

The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea · June 24, 2021

For anyone interested in human rights in the north, the job of the US Ambassador for Human Rights, and the importance of information, NGOs, and international pressure, it is worth 70 minutes of your time to watch this. I ordered Ambassador King's new book and I look forward to reading it.

 

3. North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Complex: Assessing Activity at the Radiochemical Laboratory

38north.org · by Olli Heinonen · June 25, 2021

Excerpt: "It is also important to note that the reactor is maintained and likely ready to operate when needed."

 

4.  North Korean Stability is in the Eye of the Beholder

The National Interest · by Patrick M. Cronin · June 25, 2021

Where you stand depends on where you sit.

I am pleasantly surprised by how much Korea watchers are paying attention to the possibility of north Korean instability and regime collapse.  

It is like deja vu all over again only now we may have much better insights than we did in the 1990s.

And an intel assessment from the 1990s: in the next 10 years north Korea may attack the South, collapse, or muddle through. The same assessment can be made today.

And while this conclusion is logical we must anticipate what might happen and be prepared for it because we could have no choice if the regime collapses. If collapse occurs it will be catastrophic for the Koreans in the north, South Korea, Northeast Asia, the US, and the international community. (the same goes for war of course too)

For all the troubles North Korea causes the world, and for all the horrors the regime inflicts on many of its people, the sudden failure of North Korea could be even worse than its continued existence.

 

5. Kim Jong-un's Demand for Self-Reliance Risks North Korean Lives

The National Interest · by Spencer D. Bakich · June 25, 2021

Look. We need to understand the nature of the Kim family regime and its vital national interest. That is: it is the survival of the Kim family regime, not survival of the nation-state or the Korean people in the north. The Korean people in the north exist to be exploited and/or sacrificed to ensure the regime's survival. The Korean people are suffering and will suffer because of the deliberate policy decisions of Kim Jong-un.

 

6. Kim Jong-un’s COVID-19 Policy Could Lead to Mass Starvation

The National Interest · by Sojin Lim · June 26, 2021

The COVID mitigation measures are for the dual purpose of ensuring survival of the regime and for further oppressing the population to prevent any kind of political or violent resistance. They are not designed to protect the people and their protection through these measures is purely incidental,

 

7. What Is the North Korea’s Recently Minted 'General Secretary' up To?

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · June 25, 2021

I hope the de facto or pseudo trilateral alliance is discussing contingencies.  We must anticipate the likely contingencies. As I told some students last week, while we call north Korea the Hermit Kingdom sometimes we act like we are part of the Ostrich Kingdom because our heads seem to be buried in the sand when it comes to north Korea and potential futures and outcomes.

 

8. South Korea open to dialogue with North despite latest snub, report says

upi.com · June 25, 2021

Four to six months? If they have the vaccines and a distribution system I bet the discipline of the north Korean system and society might be able to accomplish this even faster than four to six months.

Excerpts: “Dr. Kee B. Park, director of Korea Health Policy Project at Harvard Medical School, said Friday at the 16th Jeju Forum that Gavi officials could vaccinate the entire country in four to six months, Seoul Shinmun reported.

Vaccine deliveries to North Korea may have been delayed, however, according to the report.

 

9. North Korea defined by 'hybridity,' South Korean analyst says in new book

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · June 25, 2021

Hopefully this will be translated into English. I wish FBIS was still around. I do not think OSC is doing any major translation work.

I would agree with Thae Yong-ho below except for the fact the regime has closed the border with China, restricted movement and information flow and is trying to prevent the use of foreign currency. All of these are necessary for the markets to function. It is the markets (and the ROK Sunshine Policy) that saved the Korean people and the regime after the Arduous March of 1994-1996. But we may see neither repeated in 2021 and the actions to mitigate COVID effects are a self inflicted wound on the markets.

Excerpts: “Koh argues in his book that marketization theory may not be sufficient to understand contemporary North Korea. Recent history indicates that even though a marketization from below is taking place, the direction of the North Korean leadership suggests Pyongyang has not changed since the Cold War.

The author instead proposes hybridity may best capture what is occurring at multiple levels of North Korean society, where different systems exist side by side. Social Change and Hybridity is the first volume in a six-book series from Koh.

...

Informal markets in North Korea have played an important role in replenishing the food supply, according to defectors.

Thae Yong-ho, the former North Korean diplomat now lawmaker in Seoul, told KBS Friday that North Korea's current food shortage does not compare to the famine of the '90s.

Markets have taught the North Korean people the ability to "self-sustain" and it is unlikely mass starvation will occur as in the past, Thae said, according to the report.

 

10. South Korea’s needless censorship of North Korean material

eastasiaforum.org · by Martin Weiser · June 26, 2021

We should not censor the enemy’s propaganda. Superior ideas, ideals, and values defeat inferior ones. Censorship also connotes weakness.

 

11. Is North Korea Struggling to Move Toward the Future?

The National Interest · by Andrew Yeo · June 25, 2021

A future defined by the Kim family regime?

I am reminded of a discussion I had with a retired ROK Navy Admiral outlined here:

Differences (and similarities) Between north and South

Survive and Thrive

  • Two Miracles in Korea
  • Miracle on the Han – development of Korea
  • Only nation to go from major aid recipient to a major donor nation
  • Grew out of the ashes of the Korean Civil War – political, economic, cultural development- Great Middle Power – 8-11th largest economy in the world
  • Miracle on the Taedong (river in Pyongyang similar to the Han River in Seoul)
  • After 7 decades the Korean people in the north continue to survive despite living in conditions of the worst human rights atrocities and crimes against humanity since WWII.
  • Commonality among Korean people in the north and South
  • When faced with hardship they will survive
  • Neither north nor South had a history of democracy or free market economy
  • When given an opportunity they will thrive – note the nearly 500 markets thriving in the north

 

12. A New Chapter in U.S.-South Korea Relations: Seoul Embraces a Broader Role in Asia

americanprogress.org · by Tobias Harris and Haneul Lee · June 25, 2021

But can the ROK and US execute what came out of the summit? The agreements reached were strategic and important but they must be effectively implemented. I remain cautiously optimistic.

Conclusion:The Moon-Biden summit is a significant landmark for the U.S.-ROK alliance and South Korean domestic politics. South Korean progressives, who have historically wanted the alliance to focus on North Korea, are becoming more open to the idea of expanding the U.S.-ROK alliance beyond the peninsula. This is a positive development in South Korea’s increasingly partisan political atmosphere, and a benefit to the United States, which has always viewed the alliance as capable of both addressing North Korea and playing a role in regional affairs. There is truly no limit on what the two allies can accomplish together in the region if there is a bipartisan consensus in South Korea that Seoul can and should play a greater role in confronting the region’s most urgent challenges in coordination with the United States and other democracies.”

 

------------------

 

“So live your life that the fear of death can never enter your heart. Trouble no one about their religion; respect others in their view, and demand that they respect yours. Love your life, perfect your life, beautify all things in your life. Seek to make your life long and its purpose in the service of your people. Prepare a noble death song for the day when you go over the great divide. Always give a word or a sign of salute when meeting or passing a friend, even a stranger, when in a lonely place. Show respect to all people and grovel to none. When you arise in the morning give thanks for the food and for the joy of living. If you see no reason for giving thanks, the fault lies only in yourself. Abuse no one and no thing, for abuse turns the wise ones to fools and robs the spirit of its vision. When it comes your time to die, be not like those whose hearts are filled with the fear of death, so that when their time comes they weep and pray for a little more time to live their lives over again in a different way. Sing your death song and die like a hero going home.”

- Chief Tecumseh

 

"War's one of those things, don't you think, where everyone always thinks they're in the right have you noticed that? Nobody ever says we're the bad guys, we're going to beat shit out of the good guys."

-Caryl Churchill 

 

"There's never been a true war that wasn't fought between two sets of people who were certain they were in the right. The really dangerous people believe that they are doing whatever they are doing solely and only because it is without question the right thing to do. And that is what makes them dangerous."

- Neil Gaiman 

Categories: News