Beyond Syria and Iraq, Faraway ISIS ‘Provinces’ Fight On by Yaroslav Trofimov - Wall Street Journal

In the three years since it proclaimed a world-wide caliphate, Islamic State has become a global franchise—which means that the loss of its core in Syria and Iraq won’t pacify the far-flung conflict zones where the group’s affiliates operate.

Regional “provinces” of Islamic State have sprung up from West Africa to the Philippines after the group’s self-appointed “caliph,” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, seized the Iraqi city of Mosul in 2014 and demanded allegiance from Muslims world-wide.

Most of these “provinces” grew out of existing insurgent organizations, such as Nigeria’s Boko Haram or Ansar Beit al-Maqdis in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. These groups simply reflagged with Islamic State’s new brand—then seen as uniquely appealing to recruits and donors because of Islamic State’s seeming invincibility.

Other “provinces” were breakaways from relatively more moderate groups, such as Islamic State Khorasan, which absorbed the most violent elements of the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Some groups, like Boko Haram, controlled huge territory. Other Islamic State “provinces,” such as the one in Russia’s North Caucasus, consisted of scattered militants on the run.

In any case, the conflicts in which all these “provinces” thrived preceded Islamic State’s 2014 proclamation. And even after the recent liberation of Mosul and the impending collapse of Islamic State’s second-largest stronghold of Raqqa, in Syria, these distant conflicts will persist, following their own individual dynamics…

Read on.

The City Is the Battlefield of the Future by John Spencer - Wall Street Journal

The battle for Mosul represents the future of warfare—and it wasn’t pretty for America’s allies. A ragtag army of a few thousand Islamic State fighters managed to hold the city for months against some 100,000 U.S.-backed Iraqi security forces. The ISIS fighters communicated via social media and were armed with crude explosive devices and drones available at Wal-Mart . In the end the rebel fighters were dislodged, but not before an estimated 7,000 people were killed and another 22,000 wounded.

U.S. commanders ought to imagine how they would handle a similar environment. Future American conflicts will not be waged in the caves or craggy mountaintops of Afghanistan, much less the open deserts of Iraq or the jungles of Vietnam. They will be fought in cities—dense, often overpopulated and full of obstacles: labyrinthine apartment blocks, concealed tunnels, panicking civilians. The enemy will be highly networked and integrated into his surroundings. America’s next war will be the 1993 Battle of Mogadishu on steroids.

The U.S. military must wake up to the reality of demographic trends. Over half of the world’s population resides in cities, and the United Nations estimates that figure will reach 60% by 2030. By the same year, the number of “megacities,” those with more than 10 million residents, will climb from 31 to more than 40. Such urbanization makes less plausible the traditional tactic of coercing civilians out of conflict zones to give the military free rein…

Read on.