News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Wondering just how loyal a US ally Moon Jae-in is
2. Human rights and nuclear talks
3. Kim Yo Jong Is Ready to Become the First Woman Dictator in Modern History
4. Kim Jong-un calls meeting as North Korea faces worst economic crisis since 1990s famine
5. Biden has options with North Korea. Surrender mustn't be one | Opinion
6. New infections under 1,000 for 2nd day amid extended virus curbs
7. USFK to begin COVID-19 vaccination Tuesday
8. N. Korea logs positive economic growth for 1st time in 3 years in 2019: data
9. N.K. leader could skip New Year's Day speech ahead of party congress: experts
10. N. Korea's paper emphasizes 'self-reliance' as 80-day campaign draws to end
11. North Korea creates new camp for violators of COVID-19 quarantine rules
12. North Korean authorities order more personnel to help recovery efforts at Gomdok Mine
13. Preparations underway for major party event in North Korea
14. Public disapproval of Moon's presidency close to 60 pct: Realmeter
15. Quarter of recent local COVID-19 infections originate among family members: PM
16. S. Korea to maintain nuclear phaseout scheme, scale back coal power generation
17. Mired in crises, North Korea's Kim to open big party meeting
18. Construction on North Korea's answer to Ibiza 'grinds to a halt'
1. Wondering just how loyal a US ally Moon Jae-in is
asiatimes.com · by Grant Newsham · December 28, 2020
Along with Dr. Tara O and Gordon Chang, Grant Newsham is becoming one of the most critical voices of President Moon's politics, especially toward north Korea and our shared values.
The benefit of the doubt: The Moon administration is naive about the Kim family regime. The worst case: the possibilities that Gordon, Tara, and Grant describe.
I will state my recommendation again: The Moon administration needs to reassesses its assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime and recognize what the regime is really about and not deal with it as they wish it would be. It is critical that the incoming Biden administration work with the Moon administration and reassess the strategic assumptions and come to an agreement on what assumptions should be used to develop combined alliance policy and strategy toward north Korea. Failure to have sufficient alignment on the strategic assumptions could cause greater alliance friction than the SMA stalemate and OPCON transition.
2. Human rights and nuclear talks
The Korea Times· by Tong Kim · December 28, 2020
I am loath to disagree with my good friend Tong Kim who has traveled to Pyongyang and interpreted for US senior leaders numerous times over many decades until he retired. He probably has more experience with the Kim family regime than any American.
This conclusion troubles me: "While the North Korean human rights issue is important, it should be dealt with as a separate issue from that of denuclearization at an exclusive venue such as the U.N. Human Rights Council or in the forum of other advocacy organizations. Ultimately, the human rights problem may take longer to resolve than the nuclear issue."
I think human rights is more than an important issue. It is a moral imperative and a national security issue. We cannot ignore it and we cannot shy away from it in the hopes that by not addressing it we will get a denuclearization agreement. The denial of humans rights is critical to regime survival. Again we should take a lesson from President Regan who, despite the contrary advice from his advisors, continued to emphasize human rights in the USSR with Soviet leaders even as arms control negotiations were taking place. And there are practical reasons for emphasizing human rights: from educating the Korean people in the north about their universal human rights (which many do not understand are their inalienable rights) and giving them hope and preparing them for future unification under a United Republic of Korea to incorporating them into the information and influence activities strategy and the pressure campaign. When we discuss the regime's nuclear program we reinforce Kim Jong-un's legitimacy and provide support to the Propaganda and Agitation Department. But when we discuss human rights in north Korea we undermine the legitimacy of Kim Jong-un and we make him afraid. We should keep in mind Dr. Jung Pak's key question: Who does Kim Jong-un fear more: The US or the Korean people living in the north? It is the Korean people living in the north and armed with information and knowledge of their human rights.
3. Kim Yo Jong Is Ready to Become the First Woman Dictator in Modern History
The Daily Beast · by Donald Kirk· December 28, 2020
Don Kirk's analysis on the likelihood Kim Yo-joong succeeding her brother.
However, Bruce Klingner may be tempting her fate here. The worst position to be in in north Korea is the "Number 2." People who are suspected to be the number 2 have not fared well in the past.
Excerpt:
“Formal titles aside, she’s “likely the second most powerful person in North Korea” - the one whom her brother “trusts the most,” said Klingner. Whether she would “become leader if her brother passed away suddenly remains unknown, but certainly that’s a much stronger possibility than only a few years ago.”
4. Kim Jong-un calls meeting as North Korea faces worst economic crisis since 1990s famine
SCMP · December 28, 2020
I cannot emphasize how important it is that we pay attention to indications and warnings of instability inside north Korea. The conditions may become worse than what we saw during the Arduous March of the great famine of 1994-1996.
I am not predicting regime collapse. But I will say if regime collapse does occur, it will be catastrophic.
Kim Jong-un calls meeting as North Korea faces worst
economic crisis since 1990s famine
- The leader will try to muster stronger public loyalty to him and lay out new
- economic and foreign policies amid the Covid-19 pandemic
- If the virus does not ease, North Korea’s self-imposed lockdown will be extended,
- which could destabilise food and exchange markets and trigger public panic
5. Biden has options with North Korea. Surrender mustn't be one | Opinion
Newsweek · by Abraham Cooper and Greg Scarlatoiu · December 28, 2020
An important OpEd from our Executive Director of HRNK, Greg Scarlatoiu and my fellow board member, Rabbi Cooper.
They counter Christine Ahn's naive views of north Korea and provide recommendations for including human rights in north Korean policy and strategy.
Conclusion:
“The truth is that no one has the answer to bring peace to the Korean Peninsula. But caving to tyrants' demands isn't an option. North Korea is ruled by a regime that joined the Non-Proliferation Treaty, then withdrew and developed nuclear weapons. The Kim regime commits crimes against its own people and citizens of other countries. By entering a peace treaty and normalizing relations with a criminal regime in possession of nuclear weapons, the U.S. would be creating a precedent and blueprint for other tyrants: brutalize your subjects, develop weapons of mass destruction and the U.S. and the world will blink.
For all its monumental failings, the international system established after World War II has prevented another global conflagration. As enshrined in the preamble to the UN Charter, this system strives "to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war...to reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and worth of the human person, in the equal rights of men and women and of nations large and small." Should sanctions on North Korea fail, unconditional surrender to a regime that denies human rights and threatens international peace and security is a prescription for disaster. It is a path that President Biden's team should never take. That path will be strewn with innocent victims of Kim's brutalities and bring the entire region to a dangerous, fully nuclearized dead end.”
6. New infections under 1,000 for 2nd day amid extended virus curbs
en.yna.co.kr · by 최경애 · December 28, 2020
Slightly good news.
7. USFK to begin COVID-19 vaccination Tuesday
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · December 28, 2020
Excerpt:
“Around 40 South Korean service members affiliated with the Korean Augmentation to the U.S. Army, known as KATUSA, are working at Allgood Army Community Hospital inside Camp Humphreys, and they could also be subject to the inoculation, officials said.
"Currently, working-level talks between the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), USFK and the defense ministry are under way about the matter," ministry spokesperson Boo Seung-chan told a regular briefing.
USFK is expected to make an official request for formal consultations with the Seoul ministry, and the two sides will make a related decision accordingly, a ministry official said.”
8. N. Korea logs positive economic growth for 1st time in 3 years in 2019: data
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · December 28, 2020
I doubt the numbers improved in 2020 and likely will not improve in 2021. And this is likely a "false economy" with China and Russia enabling sanctions evasion in 2019.
9. N.K. leader could skip New Year's Day speech ahead of party congress: experts
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · December 28, 2020
A guessing game for Korea watchers. Will he give us only a written statement or will he make an address from his well appointed office or will he give a public speech from a podium? Then how will he dress: A western business suit or the traditional "mao suit." Let's start a pool.
10. N. Korea's paper emphasizes 'self-reliance' as 80-day campaign draws to end
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · December 28, 2020
Does anyone think the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime have changed in any way over the last seven decades?
It will be interesting to read the Propaganda and Agitation Department's assessment of the success of the 80-day campaign.
11. North Korea creates new camp for violators of COVID-19 quarantine rules
dailynk.com· by Mun Dong Hui · December 28, 2020
One thing north Korea is good at is building camps and incarcerating the Korean people in the north.
12. North Korean authorities order more personnel to help recovery efforts at Gomdok Mine
dailynk.com· by Jong So Yong · December 28, 2020
Note: The Geomdeok mine is one of the largest lead and zinc mines in North Korea and in the world.
13. Preparations underway for major party event in North Korea
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Shim Kyu-Seok
How big will the event be? Think of all the resources committed for this event and what they could do for the Koreans who are suffering in the north. Again, Kim Jong-un's deliberate policy decisions are responsible for the suffering, not sanctions or the international community. All the responsibility lies on the shoulders of Kim Jong-un.
14. Public disapproval of Moon's presidency close to 60 pct: Realmeter
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · December 28, 2020
While this may be a record high it is typical South Korean presidents toward the end of their single term always suffer from relatively high disapproval ratings.
15. Quarter of recent local COVID-19 infections originate among family members: PM
en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · December 28, 2020
16. S. Korea to maintain nuclear phaseout scheme, scale back coal power generation
en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · December 28, 2020
I think this is an ideological decision and I fear this will have long term negative consequences for South Korea's economic growth.
17. Mired in crises, North Korea's Kim to open big party meeting
AP · by Hyung-Jin Kim and Kim Tong-Hyung · December 28, 2020
When will the 8th Party Congress happen? Will Kim give a New year's speech? Enquiring minds want to know but Kim will keep us guessing. But, on a serious note I concur that Kim is facing the most significant challenges of his 9 year reign.
18. Construction on North Korea's answer to Ibiza 'grinds to a halt'
Stuff.co.nz · by Colin Freeman · December 27, 2020
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"Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule -- and both commonly succeed, and are right."
- H.L. Mencken
"The best cure for the ills of democracy is more democracy."
- Edward Abbey
"The ballot is stronger than the bullet."
- Abraham Lincoln
"The future is best decided by ballots, not bullets"
- Ronald Reagan