Small Wars Journal

Why Ukraine Will Defeat Russia and How, from Kherson to Crimea, from Zaporizhzhia to the Donbas

Thu, 08/04/2022 - 9:59am

Why Ukraine Will Defeat Russia and How, from Kherson to Crimea, from Zaporizhzhia to the Donbas

Dynamics over time are the key to analyzing just about anything, and they (“why”) clearly favor Ukraine in Russia’s failing war of conquest, meaning Ukraine can possibly push Russia out entirely in the coming months by sweeping through the south all the way to Donetsk (“how”)

By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981LinkedIn, Facebook) August 4, 2022

This article is an adapted combination of two articles from Brian’s news website Real Context News: the July 30, 2022, Russia’s Defeat in Ukraine May Take Some Time, But It’s Coming and Sooner Than You Think and the August 3, 2022, How Ukraine War Will Likely Go Rest of 2022, or, Kherson: The Beginning of the End for Russia

 

I.

WHY

 

“Morale is the greatest single factor in successful war.”

— Dwight E. Eisenhower, Crusade in Europe

“Stupid is as stupid does.”

— Forrest Gump

 

Image

“Heroes of the Hostomel Battle,” pic by Olena Yakhno/@IAPonomarenko/Twitter

 

I can respect the fact that many journalists are not terribly steeped in military history, strategy, or tactics, but the writing really is on the wall for Russia in its miserable failure of a war.  And while projecting too much optimism may run the risk losing a needed sense of urgency in some quarters, support for Ukraine has not only been stated as a clear and long-term commitment throughout the West but acted upon with vigor over the more than five months of this war, with support only increasing and more and more support surely on the way.  Thus, analysis that misses Ukraine’s success—not just past or tactically, but in forging, driving, and dominating dynamics that have put Ukraine on the path to surprising victory and Russia on the path to ignominious defeat—is not presenting an accurate picture.

As I noted elsewhere, a simple look at a few maps produced by the Institute for the Study of War in conjunction with Critical Threats reveals that, since late March, Ukraine has been more on the offensive than Russia and is taking far more of its occupied territory from Russia since then than territory Russia has taken since then from Ukraine, never a good sign for any invader.