Fire for Effect in Ukraine
John Nagl and Dan Rice
The United States has now approved the provision of air-to-ground AGM-154 precision cluster glide bombs to Ukraine. This completes the full family of cluster munitions for artillery, HIMARs rockets and aircraft thirty-two months after the Russian invasion of that country. Cluster munitions incorporate a number of smaller bomblets that scatter upon impact, vastly increasing the destructive power of the weapons. America has been slow to provide cluster munitions to Ukraine, doing so sparingly and haltingly. It is now time to deliver all of these different types of cluster munitions in large quantities to destroy the Russian Army in Ukraine. In artillery terms, it is time to FIRE FOR EFFECT and provide the quantities of ammunition Ukraine needs to win the war.
The slow increase in capabilities provided to Ukraine cost Ukrainian lives and territory. At first, US howitzers and HIMARs were deployed without cluster munitions. Instead, Ukraine was provided with much inferior high explosive artillery shells (HE) and HIMARS rockets with single HE warheads.
Then the slow approval of cluster munitions started. Turkey started supplying 155mm Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions in the fall of 2022 during the Battle of Bakhmut. This first batch of 3,500 DPICM rounds made a tremendous difference, and Russian casualties increased significantly. Turkey started providing 3,500 DPICM rounds per month. Compared to the millions of 155mm High Explosive rounds Ukraine had already received and fired, these made a disproportionate difference, and Russian casualties spiked. These DPICM “area weapons” are also ideal for counter-battery fire--identifying, targeting and returning fire on Russian artillery. In the fall of 2022, Russia started losing considerably more artillery tubes to Ukrainian counterbattery fire than it had before Ukraine received cluster munitions.
The United States finally approved 155mm DPICM rounds in July 2023; Russian casualties and artillery losses continued to climb. In October 2023, Ukraine finally started receiving limited numbers of HIMARS cluster rockets and ATACMS missiles. The first use of ATACMs strikes hit two Russian airfields in temporarily occupied Crimea and destroyed 24 Russian attack helicopters in one of the most devastating strikes the Russian Air Force had experienced since World War II.
The US has now approved deployment of AGM-154 precision cluster bombs for air-to-ground use by Ukraine Air Force. These are 100km “glide bombs’ that can be launched across enemy lines into Russian troops and armor, similar but better than the ones that Russia has been launching against Ukraine for the past several years.
Now, thirty-three months into the full-scale invasion, the US has finally approved Ukraine’s use of the full family of cluster munitions, able to be launched from 155mm howitzers, HIMARs launchers, and aircraft. Each weapons system has a different range and effect: 155 mm howitzers can fire 20km, HIMARs cluster rockets 45km, HIMARs ATACMS cluster missiles 165km, and AGM-154 cluster bombs from airplanes can fire 100km deep into Russian territory. Ukraine has proven to be adapt at the use of all the weapons they have been provided, especially cluster munitions.
The success of cluster munitions is seen most dramatically in the Russian casualty count increases after all the significant milestones above. Russian casualties have increased to over 35,000 casualties per month starting in May 2024 and have had over 150,000 dead or wounded Russians in the past five months alone (see chart from Ukraine Ministry of Defense) and over 1,400 artillery pieces per month (see charts drawn from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense).
The success of cluster munitions in Ukraine against Russian forces has been undeniable. The majority of casualties on both sides come from artillery fire, and the majority of Russian casualties come from cluster munitions. NATO should be learning from the incredible success of cluster munitions.
There are political issues associated with Cluster Munitions, a hangover from the exhilaration that followed the end of the Cold War. Several western countries (not the US) signed a Cluster Munitions Convention that forbade the use of such weapons, given the so-called “end of history” that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought to a crashing halt. The concerns about the use of cluster munitions focus on the unexploded ordnance left behind. Ukraine is willing to take this risk on its own territory, as anywhere the Russian forces have occupied is contaminated land from Russian artillery firing tens of thousands of artillery rounds per day with an unexploded ordnance (UXO) rate of 10% or higher; NATO cluster munitions have a UXO rate of around 2%. General David Petraeus has said, “Given the effectiveness of Ukraine’s use of cluster munitions, it is clear that NATO deterrence and defense would be enhanced if all member states followed Lithuania’s example and withdrew from the Convention.”
The only remaining member of the CMC in NATO that borders Russia is Norway. Norway, which is concerned with a Russian invasion and is increasing Norwegian military conscription, should follow Lithuania’s example and withdraw from the CMC. It’s past time for our allies and our enemies to recognize the incredible success of cluster munitions to win today’s wars and deter future wars.
Dr. John Nagl is Professor of Warfighting Studies and Dan Rice is President of the American University Kyiv. Rice served as Special Advisor to the Commander in Chief Ukraine Armed Forces. They are both members of the West Point Class of 1988 and combat veterans. This article expresses their views and not those of the United States Army War College or the United States Army.