Small Wars Journal

Turkish Invasion of Northeast Syria Looks Imminent

Sun, 10/06/2019 - 12:46am

Turkish Invasion of Northeast Syria Looks Imminent by John Dunford – Institute for the Study of War

Key Takeaway: Turkey is preparing to invade Northeastern Syria despite U.S. efforts to de-escalate tensions through a joint security mechanism along the border. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on October 5 that “We have made our preparations, completed our operation plans” and that air and ground operations will begin within days. The Turkish offensive will likely target the Arab-majority city of Tel Abyad in Northern Raqqa Province. It will create an opportunity for ISIS to achieve breakout success in eastern Syria while the U.S. partner force, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), fights Turkey along the border. Pro-Assad regime forces could also attempt to exploit the chaos to seize oil fields currently under SDF control…

Read the full assessment here.